Red C poll in yesterday’s Sunday Business Post
Further to the results of yesterday’s Sunday Business Post/Red C poll…
Geography lecturer and deputy head of the Geography Department at NUI Maynooth Adrian Kavanagh writes:
After little change in party support levels had been evidenced in the wake of the February general election, a series of opinion polls in July 2016 pointed to significant gains in support for Fianna Fail, pushing that party ahead of Fine Gael in terms of overall support levels.
The latest in series of Red C opinion polls more or less reflects the trend that has been established across all polls from July onwards; showing Fianna Fail standing a few percentage points ahead of Fine Gael in terms of overall support levels.
This also reflects the trend evidenced in the recent Behaviour & Attitudes poll, in which the two largest parties were both seen to lose some ground to Sinn Fein, Labour and the Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit. (This poll, however, sees the Social Democrats standing in notably stronger position than was the case with the Behaviour & Attitudes poll.)
The 25th September Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll estimates party support levels as follows: Fianna Fail 27% (down 2% relative to the previous Red C opinion poll), Independents and Others 26% (NC) – including Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 6%, Social Democrats 4%, Green Party 2%, Renua <1%, Independent Alliance 4%, Other Independents 10% – Fine Gael 25% (down 1%), Sinn Fein 15% (up 2%), Labour Party 7% (up 1%).
My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 52, Fine Gael 44, Sinn Fein 23, Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 8, Labour Party 7, Social Democrats 4, Independents 20.
As You Were More Or Less…: Constituency-level analysis of Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll (25th September 2016) (Adrian Kavanagh)
Red C poll: FF sees support slip for first time since election (Sunday Business Post)
Previously: For Whom The Polls Toll
Pic: Sunday Business Post