This morning.

UK’s Talk Radio.

Chronic disease specialist and Covid response critic, Dubliner Ivor Cummins aka The Fat Emperor discusses the new rona data, false positives and ineffective lockdowns with Julia Hartley Brewer.

Previously: Ivor Lot of Questions

Meanwhile…

Yikes.

Meanwhile…

“This a mobilisation of the organisation”.

Um.

53 thoughts on “Data Logic

      1. Clampers Outside

        I think it’s a riddle… Better call Ms Jessica Fletcher, or if not available, Poirot!

        1. Micko

          Ah, MSW – I loved that show

          I always thought Cabot Cove must be the murder capital of the world though…

    1. Micko

      The fact that this comment is still here bosman, should tell you how much control the guys do on this forum.

      Unless you’re being an absolute silly – you’ll be grand

  1. SOQ

    It is a good indication of the level of fear instilled where data analytics- which is used all over the world to assist the decision making of large corporations, is dismissed as uninformed- when in fact Ivor has way more domain specific knowledge that most in such data analytic positions.

    So that battle lines are being drawn between the modellers and the analysts and we will know in about 6 weeks who is right. I know what my money is on because the modellers have not got one single thing right so far.

    Problem is, there is a lot of faces to be saved- especially those of politicians who don’t like to admit they are ever wrong.

    1. Cian

      Ivor doesn’t make any use of data analytics, He copies and pastes other people’s research into Youtube videos.

      His most recent video (posted here) used four data points. few tests in August & few positives in August + many tests in September & many positives in September = more tests means more positives.

      1. SOQ

        He is working with factual data which is lot more than the crystal ball gazing the other shower are doing- as Ferguson proved they don’t even bother to justify their results.

        He is projecting Spain’s pattern 6 weeks into UK and Ireland- is he wrong to do that and if so why?

        1. Cian

          I haven’t seen any projection. Is he crunching the number himself? or is he talking a picture and overlaying it on Irish/UK data?

          1. SOQ

            Oh dear- the claws are out- why don’t you mail him and ask him?

            Have you ever even used the likes of Power Bi?

          2. Cian

            He took 4 data points and leapt to the conclusion that more test causes more positives.

            He is either ignorant of how data analytics works or he is a liar and fraud.

          3. SOQ

            He is endorsed by Professor Carl Heneghan, director of the University of Oxford’s Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine Cian- he is doing a lot more than overlaying pictures and you know it.

            You are just throwing muck.

          4. f_lawless

            Cian, I challenged you before on this line of attack on Cummins’ credibility. That time you claimed he was making up figures. When I gave you a link to one of the pieces of scientific research backing up his claim, you replied “it shouldn’t be up to the viewer to go looking for that information”.

            Now you’re again accusing him of being a “liar and a fraud” for not going into a deep enough level of detail on someone else’s radio show were he’s been given a short slot to get his points across.

            The short videos which he makes from time to time are clearly pitched at the average layperson allowing them to grasp the essential points being made without getting overly bogged down by lengthy background technical information on every aspect.

            Also, by keeping them as short and succinct as possible, it’s better strategically for reaching a larger amount of people. It’s just a fact of the modern internet age that people have shortened attention spans and are less likely to invest time in the longer, in depth technical stuff.

            Cummins’ research on the causes of cardiovascular disease and insulin resistance in relation to diet, challenged several years of orthodox thinking among the medical establishment and his research was taken very seriously- so much so, that in recent years he presented his insights at annual conferences for both the British Association of Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation and also the Irish National Institute of Preventative Cardiology.

            I don’t think his track record indicates he’s someone who’s “ignorant of how data analytics works” as you assert.

      2. GiggidyGoo

        @ Cian. Are the others’ Data incorrect then? Isn’t that what you should be questioning instead of picking one aspect of his discussion and questioning him on other’s work? Shoot the messenger?

        1. Cian

          SOQ is lauding Ivor as a “data analyst”.
          I haven’t seen any evidence of that.

          Ivor compiles pictures of charts into slide-decks and presents them as pure fact. He dismisses any data that don’t conform to his “story”.

          We can all use google and find data to support our side

          1. GiggidyGoo

            Are the others’ Data incorrect?
            Think of it this way – Holohan gathers together all sorts of information for his presentations. He compiles them and presents them as pure fact. He dismisses data as well (minutes not agreed for instance).
            Not much of a difference if the action is just compiling and presenting.

    1. Daisy Chainsaw

      She was babysitting Lawrence Fox yesterday who’s going to get well and truly Hatie Hopkined for calling a gay man a paedophile on Twitter.

      1. MME

        Ooh! I do hope he doesn’t own his own house. That is how Hopkins lost hers. Judgment mortgage slapped on. She had to sell up to pay Laurie and her bills. Such a shame…lol

      2. Scundered

        His response was down to him being repeatedly called racist with zero evidence for that also, so he was giving out a taste of their own medicine, let’s have clarity at least. It has nothing to do with the fact someone is gay, simply retaliating using the same lousy standards.

    2. Scundered

      She’s not at all, actually. Why not criticise her points instead of just trying to label her.

    1. GiggidyGoo

      Why else – it’s keeping him on the front pages. He’s seen which way the public’s opinion is going, and has decided that his own views should now be private. Chameleon.

      1. Johnnythree

        I don’t think that matters to him. Being not in the same room as trouble bothers him more.

    2. SOQ

      To distance himself from them- but the question is why,

      Speculating obviously but there is at least two legal challenges in the pipeline- one international and the other national- one on the accuracy of PCR tests and the other on the effectiveness of lock downs.

      While both are in it to win, by forcing the airing of alternative viewpoints- they are guaranteed do raise serious questions either way.

      1. Johnnythree

        @SOQ
        ‘To distance himself from them- but the question is why’

        Maybe the false positive figure is in the 20% range?
        Maybe the PCR test in three different areas by three different testing companies is calibrated differently…..
        Maybe the asymptomatic rates are 30x what they were expecting leading to IFR rates much lower than expected. (See Mike Ryan interview which nobody picked up on figures wise)

        One thing for sure, he stuck the knife in and it was not for fun. It was for a smart distinction between him and them. Because them is not where he wants to be soon. Interesting that he did it so fast…

        1. SOQ

          I am inclined to think that the PCR tests are returning a high number of false positives. Ivor above is saying 50- 80% false but have I seen claims of higher.

          Now if that is the case (pun) then it is a mistake of monumental proportions- so expect more rats to jump ship.

          Dr. Reiner Fuellmich and his team would not be putting their backsides on the line if they were not sure that the test is dodgy.

          http://tapnewswire.com/2020/10/international-network-of-lawyers-will-argue-the-biggest-tort-case-in-world-history/

          1. Johnnythree

            I think thats roughly the story. Leo has one key skill – seeing the writing on the wall and walking by it while the rest stare. The infectiousness of this is underestimated as the % of positives show, driven by asymptomatic spread. I think he knows pushback is coming.

          2. SOQ

            They all know push back is coming- the question is if it is going to be big legal- aka crimes against humanity or small legal- no lock downs.

            Although as the water protests proved- street protests seem to frighten the generous state pension schemes – meaning said employees arguing to keep the lockdown going.

            Despite the fact they done frig all in the first place- most of which are Union members of course,

          3. Nigel

            The only thing crime-like that I’d love to see prosecuted is not the lockdwn, but the places where the lockdown was mishandled, with a cost in human lives. But that’s not what you mean.

  2. Eoin

    The state is now ignoring the science. Politicians usually look for any escape route to make their lives easier…yet here they seem to be doing the opposite. No wonder conspiracy theories abound, when you have the government acting in such a suspicious fashion.

    1. Johnnythree

      I think LV fed them a little bit. Teed them up maybe? Maybe he knew the science bit but held back to see the opportunities in the chaos?

  3. E'Matty

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/world/africa/coronavirus-hunger-crisis.html

    ‘Instead of Coronavirus, the Hunger Will Kill Us.’ A Global Food Crisis Looms

    “Already, 135 million people had been facing acute food shortages, but now with the pandemic, 130 million more could go hungry in 2020, said Arif Husain, chief economist at the World Food Program, a United Nations agency. Altogether, an estimated 265 million people could be pushed to the brink of starvation by year’s end.”

    and in light of this – https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/1005/1169604-who-covid-spread/
    WHO believes 10% of world has had Covid-19
    This provides a fatality rate of 0.13% (normal flu circa 1%).

    But yeah, all those crying hysterically for lockdowns and zero Covid, they really really care about human lives, especially the most vulnerable.

    1. Nigel

      People have been warning about a looming food shortage for a while now, and it’s been largely ignored, much as you want to ignore the pandemic, and much as people want to ignore climate change. Ignoring warnings and threats because heeding them is bad for the economy is what people like you are good at, but it won’t help. Vulnerable people are vulnerable – to conflict, pandemics, food shortages, climate change, and people have been saying this for FUPPING DECADES. Don’t start using them as a shield when entirely predictable shocks come along to show how vulnerable they are. It’s disgusting.

      1. E'Matty

        well, that’s one way to avoid facing up to the consequences of your actions…It’s odd that you claim an awareness of global affairs and the problems of the world yet seem completely ignorant of global power, it’s structures and it’s behaviour. You should check out David Rothkopf’s (anti-conspiratorial) book “Superclass: The Global Power Elite and the World They Are Making” for a better understanding of agenda setting. Then maybe research which groups are the ones setting the agenda. It’s your naivety in your understanding of power that has you so misled.

        1. Nigel

          My understanding of power is that you want economic power exerted to force people back to work in exposed service industries when we’re facing down a flu+covid season with an overstretched health service, full of people already run ragged, and you’re happy to force a false dichotomy with global food shoratges to bolster your case.

          1. f_lawless

            I think the reality is that those who still advocate for continued lockdown policies at this stage are generally people leading relatively comfortable, privileged lives in the developed world.

            Even the taoiseach stated the bleeding obvious yesterday: It’s the disadvantaged who are hit hardest from by these policies

            “We know from our analysis of the pandemic to date that lockdowns affect lower paid people more, lower income groups more, the marginalised more.

            “When schools close down it’s disadvantaged students that miss out.”

            – and the knock-on effect these policies are causing in the developed world is horrendous as E’Matty says

            So much is now known about the virus – that for most of the population its not a dangerous virus. We should be letting society open up again and putting in place a ‘focused protection’ plan as articulated recently by a group of top epidemiologists
            https://unherd.com/2020/10/covid-experts-there-is-another-way/

  4. wearnicehats

    This Gardai thing is a load of old mehole. I can get up tomorrow and drive to Belfast and they can checkpoint me all they like but they CANNOT stop me driving to Belfast. All of this increased presence and checkpoint nonsense is purely to make it awkward and difficult to do the things that they suggest that you don’t do, to the point that you decide it’s not worth doing it. BUT. THEY. CAN’T. STOP. YOU. DOING. IT.

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