From top: Dublin city centre yesterday; Dr Julien Mercille
We’ve been facing a big problem in the Covid pandemic for a while now. There is a lot of confusion and debate about how to respond to it.
In order to address a problem properly, the first step is to look out for successful solutions – what have others done that actually worked to tackle the virus? Then, we can try to adapt those solutions to the situation in Ireland.
But it has been difficult to do that in Ireland because the public discourse about the pandemic, coming out of both government and the media, has neglected to examine and discuss seriously examples of successful responses to the virus in other countries – of which there are many.
Instead, we’ve spent a lot of time debating the details of the government’s approach even if it keeps failing and has thrown us all into yet another lockdown, with additional lockdowns to come periodically if the virus is not stamped out of the country for good.
Radio and television have been saturated with endless talk about questions like, How many minutes should people be allowed to sit in a pub? Is €9 the right price for a pub meal, or should it be €10.25? Should we be at level 3, 3.5, or is it 2.5? Should we allow 15 or 20 people at a wedding? And what about funerals? Can hairdressers play a role in improving their clients’ mental health?
Another problem is that proponents of “herd immunity” who have no solution other than let the virus run rampant keep getting invited on television programmes to create a false sense of “balance”.
But we wouldn’t need to ask any of those questions if we could simply eliminate the virus from Ireland (or get near that point) – and that’s what we need to focus on. An effective and widely distributed vaccine will be of great help there, but we’re not at all there yet.
In the international quality press one can see many stories about an obvious fact: Asia-Pacific countries have done so much better than Europe and the United States and many have virtually eliminated the virus.
One can read about the many economic benefits flowing from that, with country after country in Asia releasing positive economic data because their economy can now operate more normally. It is even suggested that Asia’s more effective response to the virus could propel it to lead the world in the years to come.
For example, the Wall Street Journal recently ran articles entitled “Covid-19’s Global Divide: As West Reels, Asia Keeps Virus at Bay” and “As Coronavirus Surges in US and Europe, Other Countries See One Case as Too Many”.
They explained how the Asia-Pacific region completely out-competed Europe in eliminating the virus, showing clear graphs of Covid cases contrasting European with Asian countries making it unmistakeably clear that policy answers must be thought in Asia- yet such graphs haven’t appeared very often in our own media.
The articles explained, in reference to the Asia-Pacific region, that…
“…Life in these parts has returned to normal in most ways. Bars and restaurants are bustling. Rugby games and marathons are widely attended. Food festivals are sold out. Soap operas can film crowd scenes. Even mask-wearing has relaxed in many areas.”
And they reap the economic benefits: China’s GDP expanded by 4.9% in the third quarter; Taiwan’s growth was 3.3% thanks to a rebound in domestic consumption and strong exports; Vietnam is one of the few Southeast Asian countries expected to witness positive growth this year. One important reason? “All three have crushed the virus”.
Of course, a few articles make similar points in the Irish press, but they are exceptions. More often, what we hear are horror stories about the US, UK, Italy, France or Spain, with the implication that Ireland is doing well in comparison.
Also, we have articles implying that Ireland’s leaders are on the right path, even if compared to countries in Asia, they have, like Europe, failed completely.
A sample of headlines illustrates the point – all from the Irish Times:
“Ireland ‘Outperforming Almost All European Countries in Controlling Spread of Covid-19’”
“Ireland Ranked Among Best for Covid-19 Innovative Solutions”
“Ireland Has the Fastest Improving Incidence of Covid-19 in Europe”
Comparing ourselves to countries that have failed might give us false confidence but it won’t drive the virus away from the island. For those serious about dealing with the pandemic, Asia-Pacific countries are a better source of inspiration.
Some are islands, others not; some are democracies, others are authoritarian; some have communist traditions, others market-based economies. They provide plenty of creative examples to deal with the virus.
For example, one of Ireland’s key issue to address to achieve elimination is the border with Northern Ireland. It is often presented by politicians as an insurmountable obstacle which seemingly prevents them from doing anything other than their yo-yo strategy of repeated lockdowns.
However, the border is entirely manageable by drawing creatively from successful examples of border management that have stamped out the virus.
Australia’s border management is probably the most relevant and applicable case, but there are also interesting stories in Singapore-Malaysia, Vietnam-China, and Thailand-China to name a few. They have used “border community bubbles”, special arrangements with employers, special permissions for cross-border commuters, etc.
We should have a discussion about how these cases can be applied to Ireland, rather than ignoring them or dismissing them because they have differences with our country. Otherwise, we’ll keep making mistakes.
Julien Mercille is an academic at University College Dublin and member of ISAG—Independent Scientific Advocacy Group.
Lets go for an elimination strategy. It has worked well in Asia and Australia.
Why say something in a sentence when a whole article will suffice?
“However, the border is entirely manageable by drawing creatively from successful examples of border management that have stamped out the virus.”
so let’s be “creative” by copying other countries with vastly different border issues. It’s telling that he hasn’t even bothered to try put a solution to the Irish border that is ‘entirely manageable’, that is the hard bit isn’t it
How about not putting us in a box
In the first place
These lads coming out and saying we should copy all these Asian countries, without saying what we should specifically do is very annoying.
Also, they keep talking about places like Singapore. They have a population size similar to us, they have had a similar number of cases and a tiny amount of deaths.
So either they are made of different genetic material than us, or there are more factors at play here. Population density maybe, lifestyle, sure who knows?
Either way – the “do what Asia did” strategy probably won’t work.
The second wave of Covid is hitting Europe.
Belgium’s first wave put it in top 5 of the deaths/100,000. In April it’s deaths peaking at 321 (7-day average of 283). It is now in it’s second wave with deaths hitting 354 (7-day average of 204).
Their deaths/100,000 are now at 118 (for context Spain is 85, US and UK: 75, Italy: 72, Sweden: 60, Ireland: 40, Finland: 7) .
Re-classifications aside- this is out of the ordinary for this time of year how?
Because last year there were zero Covid deaths.
Will you acknowledge that there is a second wave yet?
Most impressive article from an Irish source, very true about the shortcomings of Irish media coverage. It is as if the Irish Times, RTE and the Irish Independent copy and paste press releases from government department and political spin doctors. Matt Cooper even had a piece about whether underwear is an essential service!
What parts impressed you?
Never thought I would say this, but very good article from Mercille.
“Some are islands, others not; some are democracies, others are authoritarian; some have communist traditions, others market-based economies. They provide plenty of creative examples to deal with the virus.”
– the point is that most of these Asian democracies are what western people would regard as ‘authoritarian’. Places like Singapore were able to get ahead of the virus and introduce obligatory mask-wearing, stay-at-home notices whereas during the same period, people in Ireland bristling at the idea of being asked not to go skiing in Italy or to a horse-racing festival in England.
There’s more going on then that here as I’ve said above:
Singapore
Cases – 58K
Population – 5.8 million
Population density – 8358 per sq Km
Deaths – 28
Ireland
Cases – 66K
Population – 4.9 million
Population density – 72 per sq Km
Deaths – 1965
So, Singapore with its WAY higher pop density but similar population size and number of cases to Ireland – with a fraction of our deaths.
Singapore’s similar number of cases to Ireland would indicate they weren’t much more successful than us in preventing the spread.
So, (I guess) either Singapore did a much better job of protecting it’s elderly and vulnerable or it is some other factor at play – possibly the population has been exposed to similar outbreaks in the past giving some immunity?
Either way, as above the “do what they did” strategy won’t work here I think.
BTW – these are my own non-scientific ramblings – genuinely interested to be corrected if anyone has a better idea to explain these differences :)
Indeed, maybe he should put up a website that looks like it was designed using MS Frontpage and some videos on YouTube?
Couple of ads for coffee enemas and crystals and it will be that much more credible.
It’s clear from the comments online and aspects of this article that another upside of this Covid Con for the ruling classes has been the move towards people believing authoritarian “democracies” governments (many Asian countries) are superior to liberal democracies (Ireland, UK, US, Italy) when dealing with a “Crisis”. This appears true even if it’s just a grossly exaggerated threat that is being used to create a perception of crisis. Covid isn’t causing a crisis, our State response led by unelected arrogant technocrats is. We have a large proportion of our own population who have and continue to call for various ultra authoritarian measures (e.g. use the army to enforce lockdown, fine and even imprison those not complying with the rules, deny people access to services if won’t abide by one rule or another, enforced mandatory quarantines, with even some proposing quarantine hotels/camps, mandatory vaccination or exclusion from society and so on being just some of the uneducated proposals). These people only see viable solutions to a threat in these proposals, completely ignorant of the power this would hand over from the citizen to the State, completely oblivious to the exinguishing of the fundamental rights of individuals.
Of course, they would say it’s for the greater good, to protect the vulnerable. This is the same moronic nonsense we hear about the US concept of “National security”, so vague and undefined that it can encompass just about anything. All rights of humans can be restricted to protect this illusory notion of national security. Today, biosecurity is the new terrorism, the newly fabricated threat and crisis to have you begging them to take your rights away, for your own good of course. If you present a threat to the general populace, no matter how real or imagined, it is clear you can get a critical mass of idiots to believe the threat is as great as you claim, and on foot of this, they will not only allow vested interests to greatly expand their power in society, they will actively demand they take that power from them.
Between this Covid BS and the manmade climate change garbage, can anyone of their proponents tell us what aspect of human life is off limits for the ruling class to legislate for and control? I’ll answer this for them. None. Nothing is off limits to address these makey uppy “crises”. There is not single human right we enjoy that is not now on the table for the ruling class to infringe upon where they can claim a link to one of these fabricated crises and the needs of the greater good. We are now moving from the cycle which provided ever greater individual freedoms witnessed over the past 50-60 years, swinging right back the other direction now. This clear trend towards a desire for authoritarian rule (The Left now loving State authoritarianism, the Right loving authoritarian strong-men) at this point in time and technological development is not accidental and is perfectly timed. The most controlled global society in human history now awaits those who survive the population drop.
“blah blah blah blah blah, oh how I love to hear the clatter of the keyboard as I spout ráiméis…”
I know Rob, my comment was always going to go over the head of people with your variety of intellectual disabilities. “blah blah blah blah blah” is all that is ever running around inside your little head. Better put your bib back on now. You’re dribbling on your keyboard again…
First sentence contains more sense than 90% of the other sentences on this thread Rob.
“Covid isn’t real, it’s the same as that manmade climate change garbage” – you are conflating Matty’s verbosity with intelligence. He has the critical reasoning faculties of a squirrel.
Ahem, I was speaking of YOUR first line Rob which clearly contains more sense than what you replied to:
”blah blah blah blah blah” (although I mistook a comma for a full stop so not really a ”first line”!)
Anyhow, squirrels prepare for winter, store an inordinate amount of nuts in their cheek pouches and can use their tail as a face mask in a pinch.
I’m giving this one to the squirrels.
ah i see – consider line #2, comment #2 cheerfully withdrawn, with a sincere apology and meilleur salutations.
No worries Rob, I can see how it might have came across!
Where do I say Covid isn’t real? I quite clearly state that the threat from Covid has been grossly exaggerated. This is simply fact. The idiot class are acting like we’re dealing the bloody plague when the stats and objective reality clearly indicate that this is like a very bad flu, nothing more, and certainly nothing like the Spanish flu. The fatality rate is a measly and pathetic 0.23% (WHO) and yet we see grown adults panicked and scared witless by this crap virus that impacts almost exclusively on those already about to receive their last rites and past the average age for life expectancy. For the vast majority who do contract it, they don’t even know they have it. What a terrifying virus!!!.
Yeah, let’s wreck our economy and society, hand over all of our freedoms and rights, and create a completely controlled global tyranny all because the ruling class told us to be terrified of a virus with a fatality rate of 0.23% and so the Irish populace obliged like imbecilic sheep. It’s quite frankly pathetic and shows that the current generation alive today are a pale imitation of their forefathers.
“He has the critical reasoning faculties of a squirrel” The 99th percentile for reasoning and logic.
If we had said this time last year that we would be closing most of our national economy, causing hundreds of thousands to lose their jobs, many forever, causing mass mental suffering, denying dying people real human contact in their last days and hours, and so many more travesties of this hysteria driven mob mentality, all based on a scary “killer virus” with a 0.23% fatality rate, you would have been laughed out the door. Nothing has changed except your manipulated perception of the very same facts. You are the lunatics here, though you cannot see it becuase the lunacy is widespread and mainstream.
In fairness E’Matty if I hated my chosen career and was given the chance of having a break for a year or two from the commuting and the constant meetings and the 40 hours a week at the same desk in a job I hated, just watching the clock slowly tick on by for the next 30 years – I might be pro-Covid too.
You’re all going back, to that job you hate lads. Maybe not this side of Christmas – but you’re all going back.
Except when you do it’ll be behind plexiglass, in a mask and with an app that’ll tell you when the toilet is vacant so you can wash your hands for the 17th time that day.
Turkeys voting for Christmas
:P
@ Micko – you may have a point there. The lads loving their work from home (I know I am. I hope never to return to the office). They seem completely oblivious to the huge toll this is taking on hundreds of thousands of their fellow citizens. I see it in many of my friends too some of whom are really struggling to cope, especially those who are from other countries and live alone in Ireland. For me, Covid has actually only made my career path stronger and more lucrative, but unlike the lads, I don’t close my eyes to the devastation this is causing to huge portions of our society. The “I’m alright Jack” mentality is strong with the lads here…
They do see it Matty- they just don’t care- absolute hypocrites, .
They are happy with their virtue signalling quasi religious mask wearing and their comfortable home working arrangements and anyone who questions this madness is obviously just being selfish- the irony of it all
It’s the quasi religious part that gets me SOQ. It’s very funny really.
If you want a reaction, just say “sure it’s just like a bad flu”
To which you’ll usually get “IT’S NOT A FLUUUUUUUU” shouted at ya.
Saying that to them is like saying God doesn’t exist to religious person.
Don’t worry they’ll have their Eucharist in the arm soon :)
Yup. Ian, Rob
You guys always resort to insults when people don’t agree with you.
Very poor form lads. I don’t want to insult you back, but E’Matty has a point.
The fact that you won’t form a rational argument in return does show either you’re not capable (I don’t think it’s this) or you’re happy with the current situation
Still on full wages I’d guess.
e.matty believes 7/7 was an inside job, anthropogenic climate change is a scam, and that coronavirus is a ruse to facilitate the creation of a “centralised collective (marxist) but ruled by and for the current transnational capital class”, which will be a “centrally controlled system with an energy based, (as opposed to cash based) form of “wealth exchange”
he’s not posing an argument; merely a load of unsupported, vague, paranoid ramblings – there is literally no argument to respond to.
Since when does appreciating squirrels become insults?
But yes, I am still on my full rate of pay but as a result of restrictions and so forth it takes me about 25% longer (more sometimes) to get stuff done, so yes, pay is the same but as I do not get paid overtime, I have essentially worked longer hours for the same money but I am also appreciative of the fact that I still have a job.
Also, I miss socialising, friends, family, holidays etc. so I most definitely am not in the least bit happy with the current situation by any means.
You might think this year has been sweetness and light, it hasn’t, I have lost people to things other than covid and just because I don’t make them a talking point on here doesn’t mean I am not badly affected by it.
But yeah, make out that this is an ‘I’m alright Jack, screw everyone else’ moment why don’t you while at the same time getting up on your high horse to have a go at us for ‘insults’.
GFY.
E’matty has also openly espoused violence on here so he deserves zero respect.
Ha ha Ian-oh
“I’m super busy at work, working longer hours – but still have plenty of time to post on Broadsheet – EVERY SINGLE DAY”
Joker
@ Rob_G – “e.matty believes 7/7 was an inside job, anthropogenic climate change is a scam, and that coronavirus is a ruse to facilitate the creation of a “centralised collective (marxist) but ruled by and for the current transnational capital class”, which will be a “centrally controlled system with an energy based, (as opposed to cash based) form of “wealth exchange”
And I am absolutely correct on all three. You do no research. You simply adopt narratives which have been fed to you by establishment sources, and then have the arrogance to sneer at those who do research, who investigate events and issues, rather than simply swallowing whole information as fed to then by the establishment. People like you are too afraid to face reality, and so are very easily herded back into your pen should you ever stray off narrative. You seem to believe you live in a world where the most powerful interests are benign, benevolent, good people trying to help make everyone’s life better. This isn’t Hollywood. The world isn’t binary, neatly falling into good and evil. Just because Trump is bad, doesn’t make Biden or Obama good, as so many idiots seem to believe. They are ALL power hungry sociopaths. In the real world a million Iraqi men, women and children were slaughtered all so those you hold up as benign rulers could control the country’s oil reserves. The global economy was inflated and then collapsed resulting in the greatest wealth transfer in human history in 2008, yet people like you still haven’t figured out what happened there. Probably think we all just partied or some such BS.
What’s weird is that time and again people like you believe and trust people in power we know to be absolutely corrupt, and then you try present yourselves as the reasoned, informed members of society. Anyone who cries out the obvious reality “But those gangsters are completely corrupt! Don’t trust them”, you respond “Oh right, tin foil hat wearing conspiracy loon”. It’s like you suffer from some deranged amnesia where you see and read it one day but then the very next day, you act like you were never actually privy to that piece of information. Bizarre.
Quite clear you need to make stuff up to generate an argument:
“I’m super busy at work, working longer hours – but still have plenty of time to post on Broadsheet – EVERY SINGLE DAY”
I never said I am super busy, I said its taking me longer to get stuff done. So your made up BS argument falls flat, like most of your made up BS arguments do.
But go on, regale us about the bloke you know who’s sister worked with a guy who worked for a contractor to Pfizer and told him about the tracking nanites they are putting into the vaccine. Because those tales are always a good laugh.
In the meantime, enjoy your conspiraloon theories and while you are at it, GTY. Again..
Ha ha Ian-Oh
Hit a nerve did I yeah?
How does it take longer to get stuff done of you’re not busy? Do you experience time differently than the rest of the universe?
Full of it you are. You’re loving this pal
Julien ignores the fact that cross immunity is now regraded as a main factor in how and where SARS-COV-1 is spread. Also, that SARS-COV-1 has been found in the sewage systems of countries long before outbreaks which really really questions what this invisible enemy actually is.
No mention of Sweden? Currently doing pretty well given that they have none of this lockdown / mask stuff and a lot more relevant that Asia.
Of course the scaremongers will be along shortly trying to talk about something from 9 months ago which by their own argument.-that community immunity does not exist- should have no relevance now.
Tell me more of this mythical land?
Especially how Sweden having a death rate 1000%-1200% higher than it’s neighbors is “currently doing pretty well”.
@ Cian – yet Sweden has the very same death rate as Ireland when the population’s age profile is taken into account, as it should be with a virus the effects of which are directly linked to age, the single strongest indicator of vulnerability to the virus…
Cian doesn’t believe that herd immunity exists yet seems to think that something which happened 9 months ago is of relevance- it is like saying that two rolls of a dice are some how connected.
But when the full bill for this insanity comes in, the cancers, the suicides, the bankruptcies, the unemployment- I wonder will he be so quick to defend his masters?
Explain Belgium.
They are back in the throes of a second wave – same magnitude as the first. Where is their “herd immunity”?
The UK – first wave peaked at 940 (7 day average), currently at 401 (7 day average) and rising.
Italy – first wave peaked at 809 (7 day average), currently at 486 (7 day average) and rising.
France – first wave peaked at 975 (7 day average), currently at 552 (7 day average) and plateauing.
Notice any trends here?
I’ll leave ye with the last word there micko, have a lovely weekend! ;)
From “go F yourself” to “ have a lovely weekend”
Ian-Oh Schizo
I don’t know , seems like Julien’s behind the curve on this one.
As time has progressed and new evidence has emerged about the virus, the notion that non-pharmaceutical interventions like track and trace, lockdowns, masks were key to the extremely low death rate observed in Taiwan, China, etc now seems rather hubristic. What’s becoming apparent is that the capability of humans to ‘get the virus under control’ and put a stop to the spread of a highly infectious, often asymptomatic, respiratory disease through non-pharmaceutical interventions alone (for what would be the first time in history), is quite limited at best.
Like SOQ mentioned above – and the team of experts explain in this article, (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/09/17/stop-continued-self-destruction-test-covid-immunity/) the evidence is mounting that high levels of preexisting immunity due to widespread prior exposure to SARS-like viruses in the region, is the most plausible explanation for the extremely low death rates observed there. It may well also be a key factor in Australia/NZ but considering it’s now widely accepted that there’s a seasonal aspect to SARS-Cov-2 – just like other coronaviruses -it may be premature to judge what’s going on in those specific countries considering they’re entering their summer months
A new study has recently been published providing move evidence that the levels of preexisting immunity to the virus are higher in certain parts of the world than in others- in this case Africa was compared with the US
Thread:
https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1326178915606552577
“Important study looking at pre-covid serum samples from the US and from sub saharan africa (SSA)
it shows wide variance in pre existing cross-resistance, much stronger in SSA
this strongly supports:
pre-existing resistance
lasting resistance
biome specific resistance patterns”
Link to paper itself: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220323109