164 thoughts on “Saturday’s Papers

      1. Slightly Bemused

        I had not heard! That is sad news. He was definitely no second violin!

        Thank you for telling me, Charger. I need to dust off an album in his honour.

  1. f_lawless

    What on earth is going on in the UK?

    “Britain Opts for Mix-and-Match Vaccinations, Confounding Experts”


    ‘ If a second dose of one vaccine isn’t available, another may be substituted, according to new U.K. guidelines…

    ..“There are no data on this idea whatsoever,” said John Moore, a vaccine expert at Cornell University. Officials in Britain “seem to have abandoned science completely now and are just trying to guess their way out of a mess.” ‘

    1. SOQ

      It is like they are deliberately trying to muddle the waters in order to get more uptake for the English one.

      Just a point but both Pfizer’s and AstraZeneca’s vaccines are new tech mRNA while Oxford’s is old school monkey antibodies.

          1. SOQ

            The potential injuries caused by mRNA is unknown.

            The potential injuries caused by combining the two mRNA CoVid-19 vaccines is unknown.

            The potential injuries caused by combining an mRNA vaccine and Oxford is unknown.
            Sure what could possibly go wrong?

          2. Brother Barnabas

            the “potential injuries” caused by mRNA have been explored in detail over the course of the last 30 years; that’s not to say it’s 100% guaranteed, nothing in life is

            in contrast, the potential injuries of the alternative- the herd immunity approach- are known. and it’s a level of injury that no civilised society wants to suffer.

          3. SOQ

            Community immunity is how humans have fought battles against viruses since the beginning of time. Vaccines may assist in that immunity but it is the human community system which keeps us alive- vaccines are of no use without it.

            The potential injuries due mRNA could not possibly be fully known because that only happens upon mass deployment- hence governments indemnity.

            The risk is also bound to be elevated by mix and match or delaying the manufacture’s recommended time window between shots.

          4. Brother Barnabas

            do we really want to replicate the “battles” with viruses since “the beginning of time”, soq?

            because those “battles” wiped out hundreds of millions of people

            fortunately, we have science now

            and you say you’re not an anti-vaxxer? right-ee-oh

          5. goldenbrown

            Brother hate to say it but in this instance I think SOQ has a very good point

            sometimes a good cocktail works, I like a well made Mai Tai for example

            some definitely don’t, a Jager + Baileys + Lime even if I wore a blindfold would make me hoyyy inside a minute, bleuuurrrrgggghhhhh!

            but seriously this kind of tricking around spawns an additional new layer of risks, outcomes and smacks of desperation, literally throwing things at a wall to see what sticks with best coverage….worse still I believe it will cause further reticence and doubt in the population by stretching credibility, in my opinion anyway. it’s a very stupid move if true from a propaganda point of view if nothing else. everything I ever learned in an engineering background is not going to go out the window because the public health service can’t get it’s act together.

            fupp that

            (btw the above concoction is known as a “Smokers Cough” far as I know)

          6. millie bobby brownie

            That’s a terribly evocative name for a cocktail and now I feel a compelling urge to try one l.

          7. goldenbrown

            if I remember correctly you recently pulled a “comment of the year” out of your hat (think it was in reply to SOQ badgering you to read up on somesuch contrarian C19 related opinion/matter?) which I will now remind you of….


          8. V AKA Frilly Keane

            Listen that Jäger is mank anyway
            It’s a g’wan I dare ya stunt
            I wouldn’t use it to clean the alloys – well give it to the lad who does the valeting to clean them

            I’d put it straight into the Bottle Bank bag
            Because that’s what I imagine Bottle Bank eeewue-weewee is exactly
            Maybe that’s what Jägermeister is made from ….
            Bottle Bank weewee

            And if Bailey’s is good for anything it’s as a mixer
            With Creme da’ Menthe for a ChoccaBlock
            Or with Kahula / Tia Maria for a Creamy Coffee
            Or topping on an expresso Martini
            But even then you’re kinda taking pity on it cause it’s sitting in the press getting no attention

            I go through a dozen limes a week – easily
            Use them for everything
            In fizzy water, in Tinto Vanessa, Shandys, and lately in Moscow Mules
            Also in food – but that’s for another day

            Point is lads
            I’m going to have to add a cocktail and drinkies chapter to my Cook like a Punk / the More Butter the Better working titles Bake’Sheet cook book
            Because yere f’ing animals

            I wouldn’t waste a vaccine on any one who would mix Bottle Bank Weewee with Bailey’s n’ Limes
            You should be in permanent isolation Goldenbrows
            For everyone’s sake

        1. SOQ

          Yes you are right- Moderna and Pfizer are the two mRNA while AstraZenaca is the monkeys.

          It would be interesting to see a comparison done against the manufacturer’s side effects disclaimer- and what happens if you have both?

          Real world so far is Moderna patients can have severe allergic reactions and Pfizer can cause Bells Palsy but is early days- with another jab to go.

          I’d be inclined to stick with the tested tech myself- a bit like a new version of a software system- let them iron the bugs out with someone else’s CEO screaming blue murder.

          1. Brother Barnabas

            again – misinformation, soq

            show the link between the Pfizer vaccine and bell’s palsy

            it originated on a whacko facebook page and has been entirely debunked

          2. Brother Barnabas

            i dont know what that means

            you regularly and angrily contest any accusation that you’re spreading misinformation. now you’ve just said “Pfizer can cause Bells Palsy” –
            can you back up that claim? or are you spreading misinformation?

      1. Charger Salmons

        Muddy what waters SOQ ?
        A different second dose will only be considered in very limited circumstances where there is an ‘immediate high risk’ to health.
        And that’s only if the previous type of vaccine isn’t known or isn’t available.
        Surely this is a reasonable precautionary measure if all else fails?
        Look at the source of your story. The New York Times has been laughable incorrect about most things Britain for years.
        Like its fellow woke print travellers the Guardian and Irish Times their objectivity has been swamped by a tsunami of biased and dishonest reporting.

  2. Joe

    They are trying to end a pandemic that threatens to overwhelm their hospital system. The scientific peer reviewed data as published in the Lancet demonstrates that a single dose of the Oxford/Astrazeneca vaccine has 62% efficacy at preventing infection, upwards of 80% efficacy with two doses, but here’s the clincher, 100% efficacy at preventing hospitalisation from severe disease. A one shot dose will do the job to prevent deaths and hospitals being overwhelmed.

    If you read the NYTimes article in full a mixed dose sounds a reasonable proposition… “The country has issued an emergency green light to two vaccines, developed by Pfizer and AstraZeneca. According to Britain’s new guidance, “every effort should be made” to complete a dosing regimen with the same shot first used. But when “the same vaccine is not available, or if the first product received is unknown, it is reasonable to offer one dose of the locally available product” the second time around.
    “This option is preferred if the individual is likely to be at immediate high risk or is considered unlikely to attend again,” the recommendation said. Because both vaccines target the spike protein of the coronavirus, “it is likely the second dose will help to boost the response to the first dose.”

    1. Gerry

      It may even be that a dose of one vaccine and a booster of a different one will be the preferred procedure in the future. There are studies being done and data collected to investigate that question.

        1. Cian


          For every medicine created people volunteer to become “lab rats” to help test it.

          Otherwise there could never be any new medicines.

          1. ce

            I put in the (Bill Gates) so as to point at sarcasm… I will try to be even more sarcastic in the future to avoid misunderstandings.

          2. SOQ

            Noting wrong with being a lab rat Cian as long as you are fully informed that you are to become a lab rat.

            Can you put you hand on heart and say that all these people know they are to be treated as lab rats?

          3. ce

            SOQ – yes they all have to sign paperwork for it, it’s how trials work. The people doing it are also told they might get a placebo, so they are taking a double risk on everybody’s behalf. Imagine being in a Covid drug trail, getting a placebo and dying of Covid, because your trying to help other people… that’s actually happened for the betterment of others, a bravery that will not be celebrated.

            Do you have a solution to how to run drug trials?

          4. johnny

            …nobel me botty bumkins,lots scams with drug trials,but,.but.,..this one is different its BRAVE EPIC NOBLE OMG OLD PEOPLE ARE DYING
            SICK PEOPLE TOO
            OH MY
            many apply few are chosen only the best FFS
            “That being said, the pay range for participation in a research study can vary widely. On average, you can expect to be paid anywhere from $50-$300 per day to participate in a study. ”

          5. E'Matty

            I’m pretty sure most receiving the vaccine now in the general populace do not know that they are engaged in the largest medical experiment in human history. Never before has a vaccine for a coronavirus been successfully developed, despite 70 years of trying. Antibody Dependent Enhancement being the major obstacle i.e. the vaccines amplified the virus effect on contact with the wild strain of the virus. Never before has mRna therapy successfully developed a working vaccine. Today we see two major mRna vaccines being rolled out en masse where no medium to long term health studies have been possible. By Professor Luke O’Neills admission, amongst others, the public are engaged in the stage 3 testing, which will be analysed over 12-24 months to assess medium to long term effects.

            Anyone who wants to receive the vaccine should be facilitated but they should be fully informed of what it is they are engaged in. Those who do not wish to volunteer to be part of a medical experiment should also be permitted to opt out. Personal choice, informed consent and the right to accept or refuse experimental medicines must be preserved.

          6. Cian

            I think SOQ is taking about the second doses being different type to the first.
            I would hope that people are informed about it and given a choice.

            As for the effects of two drugs, this is also standard. There are no standard tests done for conbunatuins of drugs.
            What if you take
            – paracetomol and COVID vaccine together?
            – blood pressure medicines and COVID vaccine together?
            – athsma medicine and COVID vaccine together?
            – xxx medication and COVID vaccine together?

            Nobody knows, but that is what happens with all medicines. Nothing new. It is why we track adverse reactions that people have

          7. Nigel

            I have to say I think delaying the second dose, then mixing vaccines seems like a dodgy, possibly reckless, solution to what must be a problem of mismanagament and disorganisation.

          8. SOQ

            It is new Cian- the risks of one experimental medium to long term untested vaccine has not been fully explained, let alone the risks of two together.

            As the article above- specialists have described the mixing as being in ‘the wild west’ which doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.

        2. ce

          True – but given that you don’t want to take it in the first place and that you don’t think we’re actually in an emergency, and you have no wish to think about (never mind proffer) any kind of solution to the incredibly difficult problems we are going through – congratulations you won the comments section!

    1. Charger Salmons

      So let me get this right cobber – the Times and Mail can’t possibly predict the future but you know exactly how it’s going to turn out ?
      Fortunately Ireland’s loss of your intellectual prowess is Australia’s gain …

      1. Joe F

        That’s quite funny clown man coming from you, who has a 100% record in predictions recently. That’s 100% wrong of course.

  3. Steph Pinker

    Where’s Mick Flavin when you need him? Happy New Year to MF and all at BS* :)

    * Can you ask Mick politely to do just ONE more cartoon which encapsulates his humour and interpretation of 2020? It would be much appreciated and insightful.

  4. Clampers Outside

    Great track in this :).. If u like that kinda thing,… I do

    The KLF songs are finally available to stream according to the BBC – https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/entertainment-arts-55507226 – and there’s some “new” / previously unreleased material…

    The Justified Ancients of Mu Mu vs. Extreme Noise Terror – 3AM Eternal
    Video here –

    “I think this is the first official KLF release ever from the abandoned THE BLACK ROOM sessions with Extreme Noise Terror” says Paul Duane film maker and creator of the Welcome To The Dark Ages DOCUMENTARY film.
    A film about the KLFs return from a 23-year silence in order to build a pyramid of the dead in Liverpool (also just released streaming)
    More here – https://twitter.com/paulduanefilm/status/1345017486111084545?s=19

    Hmmmm… are those 6 or 7 KLF 12″S of mine worth a few bob I wonder :)

    1. Micko


      Always loved them. Remember when they burnt a million quid?

      Mental at the time, doesn’t seem that crazy now for some reason.

          1. Nigel

            I remember reading the article by the journalist who was there at the time, and how weird and tense and anti-climactic it seemed, but now – and this is your warning for utter pretentiousness – it seems solemn and loaded, an act of performative excess as a viking funeral or a sacrificial pyre for capitalistic excess, heralding a world being driven to flames in order to generate piles of money that will burn along with everything else. There it is, your moment of zen. Peace out.

          2. V AKA Frilly Keane

            I remember it at the time
            Certainly not as poetic as Nidgie there
            But I did appreciate it as performance art that was very brave, unique and affective. It really was outstanding.

            Nidgie said Solemn and Loaded and it certainly was

            As I look back to it now, it actually does get more provoking and provocative with time
            My artistic temperament is about as sensitive and aware as Charage’s taste buds
            So will only go so far as to say as an artistic ‘live installation’ I suppose, it gets better with time.
            Does that make it a master piece? Maybe the Brick…

            I dunno. I never got their initial motives for burning the money.
            Something about artists must struggle to be real artists
            I still don’t
            I don’t agree any endeavour should be by way of a hand to mouth existence
            And if it was genuine, why didn’t they just throw their money (well the foundation in their name’s money) off London Bridge or out of a plane
            And let mother nature and human nature run their natural course

            Anyway, there definitely remains something more powerful to be got from the event – even if it’s cynical, like how Charities work. See I can’t even make excuses for my lack of empathy for the artist’s eye. Jimmy calls it reverse snobbery btw

            I suppose now the two lads would be accused of Virtue Signalling
            But yet, it’s still a very powerful artistic spectacle, and probably a measure of its artistic merit is that it’s message gets broader as it ages.
            For me anyway

  5. Toby

    Great to see the Brits fail all the same. All the pomp, the superiority, the jowls fed by slavery- all for nowt now – no friends, no future. A world wishing them to fail.

    1. Janet, dreams of an alternate universe

      just a pity it’s the little regular people who suffer,
      people you’d probably enjoy a pint with

          1. johnny

            …do you really believe Biden’s,sharp suited and booted Praetorian Guard,led by Kamala are going forgive and forget BlowJo calling Obama a N***ER?

            “But privately, Democrats continue to take offense at Johnson’s often inflammatory rhetoric, including a racially charged description of President Barack Obama as America’s “part-Kenyan president” in 2016, raising the matter in discussions with a range of British officials. Biden himself described Johnson at a 2019 fundraiser as “a physical and emotional clone” of Trump.”


            back line b*tches.

        1. scottser

          In fairness BB, they voted for brexit, then they voted tory in droves. Let them own it now and be done. its when they have nobody but themselves to blame for the mess they’ve created, we’ll see who has the last laugh.

          1. Brother Barnabas

            yeah, but, in fairness, too, they were duped – brexit is contrary to the interests of the working class in britain, despite what they were told

            as emmanuel macron put it yesterday
            – brexit came out of “lies and false promises”

            there are two britains, and that’s always been the case; moneyed britain despises the working class britain

          2. V AKA Frilly Keane

            But you know what lads

            Nothing stopping any of the Paddys “over”
            Coming back
            Or reorganising their affairs to have dual Nationality

            “over” is where Sasanachs call where their relatives live
            As in : ‘how are they all over’.
            Anyone over back for Christmas

          3. bisted

            …oh please…the democratic deficit on this site is breathtaking…it’s only democracy when the outcome suits…wether it comes to Brexit or Trump there has been years of whinging…both outcomes defied the polls…why…because the polls convinced enough people not to participate in the relevant democratic process…with Brexit the outcome was reinforced by a subsequent election because the democratic decision was threatened…with Brexit the outcome also exposed the democratic deficit imposed on the North and Scotland…I can’t speak for Scotland but independence for the North has been accelerated…

          4. Nigel

            You don’t kow what a democratic deficit actually is, do you? Obliging people to start thinking something is a good idea or that someone is suitable for political office just because other people voted of them seems quite obviously anti-democratic to me.

          5. bisted

            …I think that’s precisely it Nigel…you think something is anti-democratic so it must be…ignore the existing measures and whinge when it doesn’t give the result you expect…you are the epitome of democratic deficit…

          6. Nigel

            ‘you are the epitome of democratic deficit…’

            Because I think that democratic processes can have bad, not to say disastrous, outcomes? That’s nonsensical.

          7. bisted

            …six of one and half dozen of the other as far as I’m concerned…the zionist tail will continue to wag the yankee dog…

          8. goldenbrown

            I only feel sorry for the 16,141,241 who voted to Remain

            as for the 17,410,742 who voted to leave, well they can take responsibility for what they’ve done….and when the pinch starts they can look to those 33,000-odd of their cohort who will benefit from this reset to vent their spleen and ask for an explanation when they eventually realise that their problems weren’t German, French or some other brand of foreign in nature but were homegrown in England’s green and pleasant land, home counties grown.

          9. Charger Salmons

            Democracy eh ? What a choker.
            If only you worried your silly little head half as much over Irish politics your elected Establishment government formed after months of horse-trading might not treat you with the contempt they currently do.

          10. Papi


            Sentence . Space . Comma/full stop .
            It gives you away every time , Kate . ?
            Why ?
            Heh . Heh . Heh .

        2. Fergalito

          I won’t be laughing at them if it goes tits up, I wish them the best despite the lies, misinformation and the overblown ghosts of imperialism that haunted them into it. Yer average punter in the UK is decent, most people want to keep the head down and get on with life. The ruling class in the UK should have to answer for it, the Tories in particular but if it does go belly up it will be the average punter who bears the brunt.

          1. Charger Salmons

            Why should it go belly up ?
            Britain will continue to trade with the EU in much the same way as before – there’s a little more paperwork to do but any company exporting that can’t organise an electronic customs declaration aren’t worth their salt anyway.
            Being out of the EU gives the UK much more freedom and flexibility to negotiate new trade deals around the world – there’s a reason why the EU has spent decades trying and failing to secure a FTA with the US
            The City will remain a global financial hub without any of the mass migration of jobs and firms that was predicted with Project Fear.
            The UK already secures more foreign direct investment than any other country in Europe so why should this not continue ?
            And now the uncertainty of No Deal has been removed I expect a flood of foreign money investing in Blighty’s world-leading expertise in many areas of industry and science.
            Travel ? It’s predicted that having a UK passport post-Brexit will add about 90 seconds to most people’s journey through passport control in most airports.
            Of course embittered Remainers who still can’t get over losing will claim its not real Brexit – the funny thing is they’re the ones unhappy with the Brexit deal signed this week while Brexiteers, including Nigel Farage and the ERG, seem quite content with it.
            But not as funny as those who spend the last four years saying Brexit will never happen and who are now changing their tunes to it’ll never work out.
            It’s a rum old do …

  6. Janet, dreams of an alternate universe

    I came across this really interesting article about the nature of comments on the internet, https://aeon.co/essays/how-masks-explain-the-psychology-behind-online-harassment,
    nice read over morning coffee, “Commentators seem at a loss to satisfactorily account for this surge in antisocial tendencies. Sometimes it’s blamed on a few sociopathic individuals – but the offenders include people who are impeccably decent in their offline lives”,
    that part about it being normal people, here we have a tendency to shout, troll, bot, payed shill ( and yes I’m sure there are some ),
    but I reckon there are more ordinary folks just having a very crap and extraordinary year on here,
    Cian has a New Years Resolution to be kinder ( he said the other day ) , I’m with Cian.
    This place is crap when it’s nasty without the balance of a little kindness and fun too…just saying.

      1. Janet, dreams of an alternate universe

        Nice ! Happy New Year ,
        and sure as me mammy says ” you don’t catch flies with vinegar ” or change people’s minds !

        1. Janet, dreams of an alternate universe

          “So the point is not that we should always be our ‘true’ selves – an aim that is probably impossible, and certainly impractical. Instead, we should learn to understand the power of the masks we wear. We should cultivate an awareness of when we’re being unduly ‘possessed’ by them, and practise the invaluable skill of tearing them off in a timely fashion. We should resist any angry impulse to pick up a mask that carries a streak of sadism. When others are trying to impose a ‘punishment mask’ on someone else, we should have the courage to intervene. Above all, we should remember that, behind the masked figures that surround us, there are people as vulnerable, fallible, as real as ourselves.”

    1. GiggidyGoo

      I’m sure if we all knew each other in real life, there’d be very little, if any, of the attacking and baiting. Then again, there are some whose intent is only to attack and bait, and change name like underpants, which is real life to them

      1. Janet, dreams of an alternate universe

        ” The uncomfortable message is that online mask-wearing doesn’t just conceal one’s identity, it transforms it – just as with ritual mask-wearers possessed by unruly gods. These effects are strongly amplified by a sense of the activity as separate from ‘real’ life. Suler calls this phenomenon ‘dissociative imagination’, commenting: ‘people may feel that the imaginary characters they “created” exist in a different space, that one’s online persona… [inhabits] a make-believe dimension, separate and apart from the demands and responsibilities of the real world.’ “

        1. Janet, dreams of an alternate universe

          I’d say if we all met we’d be very surprised ! I have JUST the right shoes !

          1. Bitnboxy

            @Giggidybot – I’ve heard it all now: from literally anyone else. Physician heal thyself!

            Do you have ANY self-awareness? ANY? Your sole MO here is to hurl abuse and to peddle your own disgruntlement.

            Mince, thick as.

  7. Paulus

    I’ve heard four “Selfs” described:

    The self we present to the world in general.
    The self we present to friends and colleagues.
    The self we present to immediate family, partner/spouse.

    The real self!

    1. Janet, dreams of an alternate universe

      makes sense, the closest I get to meeting my true self is on long runs in the middle of no where,
      everything is stripped away, it’s just you , your breathing , your feet and your will, you find out who you are when the pain kicks in and there’s no exit and then there’s joy ,
      well for me anyway.

      1. Charger Salmons

        Broadsheet does seem to attract a very particular kind of tortured soul.
        The desperate pleas for attention, the unwillingness to debate in a civilised fashion and the constant wails of anguish because everyone else is too stupid to understand how right they are all the time.
        On the plus side BS is blessed to have so many people expert in epidemiology, scientific advancement, economics, and predicting the future.
        Truly we are honoured by the presence of people we’d avoid like the plague if we met them in real life.

        1. Brother Barnabas

          I have no doubt that if you and I were to meet, charger, we would forsake the ways of a lifetime and end up wriggling around together like a pair of frenzied snakes in a cotton bag, culminating in you face down, munching the pillow in a state of frenzied ecstasy

        2. Papi

          “Truly we are honoured by the presence of people we’d avoid like the plague if we met them in real life.”
          Never a truer word was said, Kate.

      2. V AKA Frilly Keane

        Or admitting and accepting your real self
        To yourself

        Admitting you have faults
        Or when you get it wrong
        Or living with your natural instincts and personality

        I find some people, particularly Irish, fear themselves too much
        And deny their real self
        Hence the chameleon personality

    2. Micko

      I wonder if one of the determining factors of a successful relationship is the actual amount of your real self you let your partner see.

      In fact, perhaps the secret to a happy life is the amount of your real self you present to the world in general.

      “To thine own self be true” – and all that.

      Thanks Bill ;)

    1. bisted

      …in fairness, don’t expect to see any evidence produced…for any god…however, god advocates like Cardinal Eamon Marten would be experts on rape…

    2. Janet, dreams of an alternate universe

      apparently it’s the same chap, Allah and God just a different mask, same BS

  8. johnny

    how apt.
    -Dante Alighieri, known as the father of the Italian language, was born in Florence in 1265 and died and was buried in Ravenna in 1321. His epic poem, The Divine Comedy, is split into three parts and traces a pilgrim’s journey through hell, purgatory and heaven.-

    “To rebehold the stars”
    Dante Illustrated: a tribute for the 700 years since the Master Poet’s death’



  9. Brother Barnabas

    581 in hospital with covid19 as of now (compared to 255 on xmas eve), 50 in ICU – an extra 10 over past 24 hours alone

    positive tests, cases + hospitalisations doubling every 7-10 days

    thanks ratlickers

      1. SOQ

        Is that Attache ‘cases’ of dodgy PCR results which will hopefully see certain individuals prosecuted?

        Tell me- why are they so reluctant to bring in rapid antigen testing here?

        1. Nigel

          It’s a backlog of positive tests awaiting second confirmation before being added to the overall numbers.

    1. Cian

      I sometimes am wrong. And am willing to admit it.
      On Christmas Eve I made a prediction that we would have 50+ in ICU and 500+ in hospital by the middle of January. I was wrong. We hit those figures today.

      I’m going to double-up; 1000+ in hospital and (triple) 150+ in ICU and by mid-January (both these higher than last April’s). I really hope I’m wrong again.


      1. f_lawless

        Here’s a challenge for you Cian – can you mount a cogent argument to counter what Ivor Cummins hypothesises is currently happening in relation to this recently observed rise? If you respond, your argument would need to be based on the data rather than resorting to tired old ad hominem dismissals.;)

        https://youtu.be/SdKkZLqhmDM (specifically at the 3.30 mark)

        He points out that since mid December, the test positivity rate has gone through the roof.This sudden trend was observed in three different sets of official statistics:
        1. The positivity rate attributed to the general population
        2. The number of confirmed positive test results in hospital
        3. The number of confirmed positive test results in ICU.

        The crucial point he makes, however, is that according to the official government statistics, there was no lag between any of the three sets described above. But if the phenomenon were happening organically, then we should have first witnessed a rise among the general population, later followed by a rise in hospital numbers, and later still, a rise in ICU numbers rather than all three happening simultaneously.

        What he suspects is that this simultaneous rise is best explained by a change in the testing regimen – that “data mining” for new cases is currently going on with an increased focus in hospitals – testing repeatedly there -rather than out in the general population. In other words a “data artifact” has been created which is further skewing the public’s perception of facts on the ground .I think it’s a reasonable explanation.

        He believes it effectively amounts to fraud that these data sets are being used to justify further lockdowns.

        1. Cian

          This pattern is the same as we had from 27 March through mid-May: an explosion of new cases followed by a slower drop.

          The rise and fall in ICU and the rise and fall Hospitalisation followed the same pattern: there was no lag between the two.

          In fact, hospitalisations peaked (at 881) on 15th April; ICU peaked (at 155) on 11th April four days earlier than the hospitalisations!

          And Cummin’s graph are their own type of fraud. If you pause @10:00 he has big arrows to the “Level 5 lockdown”… but countrywide Level 3 lockdown had begun on 6th October, and Dublin had been at level 3 from 18 September (followed a week later by Donegal).
          …more “fraud” when you look at his “estimates” for when the hospitalisation and ICU would hit – his “proposed ICU line” is 5-6 weeks after the cases line.

          I’ve said it before: He is either ignorant of how data analytics works or he is a liar and fraud.

        2. Cian

          As for the “how” the lines are in synch, I’m not an expert.

          I know there has been an observed lag between increased cases, hospitalisation and then ICU; and it seems to average a 5-7 days. But in reality this is an average – and if you look at all the individuals will likely follow a bell-shaped curve. Some people will be much faster going from one to the next, some my be admitted directly to ICU. Most will take the 5-7 days, and a few will take even longer to go through these stages.

          If (and I’m making these numbers up to show how a normal distribution curve works) 16% take 1-4 days; 68% take 5-7days and 16% 8+ days. This will give you an average of 6 days… but 16% hit the hospital within 1-4 days;

          Now looking at real data:
          – Total cases (to date): 96,926
          – Total Hospitalisation: 6,087: 6.3% hospitalisation
          – Total ICU: 679: 11.2% (of those hospitalised go to ICU)

          If we have 300 cases in a given day (e.g. mid-November to mid-December), this would suggest 19 hospitalisations (of which 2 will go to ICU); now 16%¹ of these are ‘quick’ to hospital this is 3¹ cases. Not all that noticeable, small numbers get lost in the noise.

          if we have 1,600 cases in a given day (e.g. each day since Christmas), this would suggest 101 hospitalisations (of which 11 will go to ICU); now 16%¹ of these are ‘quick’ to hospital this is 16¹ cases. Which is a lot more noticeable.

          ¹ my “made-up number”. I don’t have source for this – but admissions should follow normal distribution curve one. in a normal distribution 68% of the data points will fall within ± one standard deviation from the mean.

          1. f_lawless

            “And Cummin’s graph are their own type of fraud. If you pause @10:00 he has big arrows to the “Level 5 lockdown”… but countrywide Level 3 lockdown had begun on 6th October, and Dublin had been at level 3 from 18 September “

            Ok from that comment at this point I think it’s fairly clear you’re just a bit of a spoofer in over your head looking to fire out ammo anywhere he can. Aside from the fact the presentation is already over at the 10.00 mark (??) The obvious point being made earlier in the presentation, where level 5 is marked out on the graph, is that by October 17th (while we were still under level 3 measures), the rate of new cases had already begun to decline The subsequent level 5 lockdown was therefore unjustified when it was imposed on Oct 21st and according to the official stats, did not have an observable impact on the curve, subsequently.

            Pretty much the only line that rang true in your comments was

            “As for the “how” the lines are in synch, I’m not an expert.”

            It’s one thing to mount an argument based on expert opinion and some of one’s own critical judgement in the mix. But I think you’re veering off way too much there into the realms of “armchair expert” coming up with you own interpretations off your own bat alone. Ivor Cummins has an highly impressive track record , having gained international recognition for his data analysis work which challenged several years of conventional wisdom in a field that wasn’t initially his own chosen profession. I don’t think you have the credentials to match, sorry to be blunt.

          2. Brother Barnabas

            youve entirely ignored cian’s comment on cummins’ estimates of when hospitalisations and ICU admissions hit. cummins glosses over this as if it’s insignificant. it isnt. firstly, its central to this entire argument. and, secondly, his timeline is implausible. we know that many hospitalisations follow a rapid deterioration in condition – and that many positive test results come on admission, not before. removing this convenient estimate (which cian calls a “fraud”), cummins’ entire thesis collapses.

          3. Cian

            Myself and Cummins are similar in a number of ways:
            – both have science/engineering backgrounds
            – both dabble in numbers
            – both are nutritionists
            – neither of us have a medical/viral/epidemiological/pharmaceutical background

            we are different in a number of ways:
            – I acknowledge that I am not an expert
            – I don’t make definitive statements on future events (I share this trait with most experts)
            – I don’t make money from posting covid-related videos on the web
            – I am not a charlatan, nor do i fake data.

            You asked me a direct question. I gave you an answer. I provided a possible explanation.

            And you dissed my possible explanation….but ignored my answer?

            If you aren’t going to listen to the answer – don’t ask the question.

          4. f_lawless

            Intriguing. Just who is this mysterious guy drawing similarities to himself and Ivor Cummins in terms of background and expertise – sorry I should say: putting himself at level above Cummins considering he’s accusing Cummins of being a charlatan and a fraud (there’s those same old ad hominems again).

            Cummins, impressive background speaks for itself:

            “Ivor Cummins, BE(Chem), CEng MIEI ..spent over 25 years in corporate technical leadership and management positions, and was shortlisted in 2015 as one of the top 6 of 500 applicants for “Irish Chartered Engineer of the Year”. Ivor’s focus and specialty is leading teams in complex problem-solving scenarios. He has often led worldwide teams with over 60-70 engineers working on major technical issues. ..

            ..In the following years he continued his research on the many “root causes” of modern disease, from “cholesterol” through to insulin resistance. He has become a professional speaker of note, giving many public lectures and chairing interviews with worldwide health experts (eg Nobel Prize winning biophysicist, Michael Levitt). Most notably he was invited by the President of the British Association for Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation (BACPR) to give a keynote talk on heart disease root causes, at their annual conference in London last October.’

            So for Cian to be putting himself at a level above all that, there must evidence of his credentials online. I googled “cian” “nutritionist” “ireland” but the only match to be found was that of a “commercial pig sales nutritionist” from the midlands!

            Couldn’t be the same one, surely. I refuse to believe it. I prefer to continue to think of you as an anonymous poster with apparent notions of himself who persistently – and predictably -attacks anyone critical of the government line, whatever the issue at hand.

          5. Cian

            you are usually a decent and informed poster but you are not using ad homenn attacks on me, and appealing to authority on Cummins?

            You rate Cummins’ expertise very highly… which is fine in his domain areas . But you also ignore all the actual medical, viral, epidemiological, pharmaceutical experts. Why?

            I have pointed out “errors” in Cummin’s videos here before. Either he is ignorant of those errors (and isn’t deserving your accolades of a data messiah) or he is knowingly publishing incorrect information (so is a fraud and charlatan).

            I’ve also realised that the time-stamp i gave above was wrong, i meant 7 minutes in.

    2. Micko

      Ah once again, need I remind you of the stellar failures of the government, media and HSE

      RTE Gate
      Celebs and politicians caught breaking the rues they promoted.
      (All led to distrust in the public – “one rule for them” etc)

      The laughable ICU capacity increase
      Non use of Nursing staff that volunteered / returned to Ireland or came out of retirement.
      Lack of PPE for Nurses and Nursing homes. (Initially about a third of cases were nurses/staff – remember all the pleas from Nurses on Twitter)

      Lets not forget; (deep breath)
      Inability to protect Nursing homes / Hospitals (66% of deaths in these settings).
      Inability to protect the vulnerable (92% of deaths with preexisting conditions).
      Inability to protect the elderly (Average age of dead 81).
      Misuse of Tax payer money (14.1 million to ROQU for example – a brand new company with no medical experience who failed to get proper equipment).
      The failure of the Track and Trace system. (They didn’t hire enough staff, even after predicting there would be “a 1000 cases a day in October”)
      Inability to properly put quarantine and tracking in place for those coming in from Airports
      Letting people travel in from Italy for a rugby match at the start of this.
      Allowing travel to Chelenham horse race thingy.
      The meat plants scandal
      The 2000 “lost Cancer” est patients / deaths and the 300K in missed Cancer screenings
      The inability of the government to listen to it’s own Covid committee – as pointed out by the committee chair Michael McNamara

      Jesus, do I need to go on…

      Finally, let’s not forget the absolute fear of God put into people EVERY SINGLE NIGHT by the media and government – absolutely crippling people and their mental health.

      I really hope the anecdotal suicide figures we’ve all heard about are just that – anecdotal.

      But yeah, call the small percentage of people who are sick to death of the hypocrisy of all these guidelines and lockdowns “ratlickers” if you think it’ll help.

      Divide and concur an all that…

  10. Charger Salmons

    ‘ I leant upon a coppice gate
    When Frost was spectre-grey,
    And Winter’s dregs made desolate
    The weakening eye of day.
    The tangled bine-stems scored the sky
    Like strings of broken lyres,
    And all mankind that haunted nigh
    Had sought their household fires.’

    It’s going to be a Thomas Hardy cold one tonight.
    Time for a roaring log fire and a glass or two of Dalwhinnie.

    1. Brother Barnabas

      that’s very beautiful, charger

      always suspected there was a poetic and sensitive soul beneath it all

      1. Cian

        Be careful of what you wish for!

        The only time there was ever a united Ireland was under British rule.

  11. V AKA Frilly Keane

    Maybe tis just me
    But has anyone noticed over the last week
    Where pretty much all the comments are concentrated inside one single thread
    How ‘telling’ and obvious some commenters have become?

    Maybe I’m more sensitive, or more familiar through historical experience of certain Special Purpose logins handwriting styles

    Brother? You’re about a long as I am, have you noticed some of the more busier avatars this last week reminding you of anyone specific

  12. Papi

    I don’t know if ye heard about the landslide in Oslo, but the fortunate ones were the people who had dogs to hear the clay move at four in the morning to warn the families. They saved most and continue to do so with rescue dogs who can dig in the clay where people cannot.
    You have problems?

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