From top: Dr Tony Holohan, Chief Medical Officer, Department of Health; the five ‘scenarios’ outlined in his letter to the cabinet yesterday with the mean number of cases, hospital admissions, ICU admissions and deaths from July 1, 2021 to September 30, 2021 under each scenario
This afternoon.
Further to the announcement of a delay in re-opening, Government, Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan said according to the European Centre for Disease Control (ECDC), modelling scenarios….
‘…that the planned easing of these measures should only proceed once a robust, non-reproducible and enforceable system of verification of vaccination or immunity status can be put in place to support this.
“If this is not deemed feasible, the Government should consider pausing further easing of these measures until such a system can be instituted”, it advised.
The letter outlined five separate scenarios, with possible outcomes from “Optimistic” with 165 deaths between 1 July and 30 September to “Pessimistic” with 2,170 deaths from Covid-19.
Tánaiste Leo Varadkar said the Government has taken the “cautious approach”…
Full letter here.
NPHET letter outlined five scenarios to Government (RTÉ)
Earlier: ‘Absolutely Bananas’ And ‘Completely Bonkers’
This really is bull poo. Holahan needs to publish the modelling data in full which he won’t because it’s not based on fact.
A man who hates alcohol, whose tenure as CMO is blighted by cervical screening and his inaction over the permanent health crisis (what did he have to say when people were dying on hospital trollies?) is now running the Country aided by a self appointed committee (NPHET) which is comprised of 1 infectious diseases expert (Colm Bergin) and a plethora of HSE pen pushers, none of which have suffered any financial loss because of Covid.
And the icing on the cake? A Country that prides itself on tolerance and lack of discrimination now discriminating against people who the Government hasn’t provided a vaccine for. We are entering very dangerous territory politically and democratically.
Totally accurate, Des.
Taoiseach Holohan needs to go.
How does one fire a civil servant in this backward little country?
He’s had more strikes against him now than a box of matches.
The UK
98% Delta variant.
13 times the Irish population, peak of 27 deaths in one day over the last 30 days (Pro rata for Ireland equals 2 deaths)
Positivity rate: 1.4%
Irish positivity rate not released
Irish R Rate not released
7 day average for hospitalisations: 1445 in Hospital, 226 in ICU.
Irish equivalent (pro rata): 111 in Hospital, 17 in ICU>
Summary: Delta variant spread among the population does not impact on Hospitalisations
It’s a bad cold now so lets all welcome the India variant then get over it- apart from Drag Queens.
A trowelled face melting in the middle from summer allergies- is pretty much their real personalities.
Des – Interesting numbers. However, Can you provide the % increases in the cases, hospitalisations and deaths in Britain, in recent weeks. 27 deaths in one day might be 100 in a day in two weeks – exponential growth.
Daily hospitalisations in Scotland have increased by a factor of 4 in just a week.
Give it a rest ,I’m sure dr Holohan could be doing better things than trying keep us safe and we’re such an ungrateful lot .I do feel they government need to feel some of this Covid-19 impact on their wages to fully understand what workers are going through and hospitality
Absolutely Mary. He could be apologising and resigning due to the Cervical fiasco and the resulting deaths. Buck stops 100% with him for both these issues. Anyone who thinks TH is in any way a good and honest man is loco.
“trying to keep us safe” lol, the utter innocence and naivity of Irish people is both amusing and terrifying at once.
Are we some test bed for the EU?
Why would Ireland have to have greater restrictions than other EU countries?
Nothing like an Irish civil servant to whip themselves with EU regulations.
We are the EU test bed for everything.
Plus the EU’s ‘bad bank’
Tony showing his true colours now.
More health systems; less health care
Why does Ireland have a lower vaccination percentage than other EU countries?
it doesn’t.
This shows Ireland with a lower % but it looks like the data is not up to date for Ireland, hence it is lower. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-31..latest&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=total_cases&hideControls=true&Metric=People+fully+vaccinated&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=IRL~Europe~DEU~ITA~ESP~FRA~POL~NLD~CZE
Our data is delayed due to the fact that the HSE was hacked and the systems aren’t fully back up and running as yet. Which I find a bit difficult to understand because surely they’re keeping a localised tally at each vaccination site that can be compiled end of day by someone with access to email and excel.
@Frankie Charage – Aus is the worst in the OECD, one of the lowest in the World. That is because we have a Tory like Bozo in charge. So far, only one death in Aus in 2021 due to Covid19.
Charger, you’re fooling nobody.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Tl-c_puzbM
Even has the…… space …… ?
Not allowed call Frankie out as Charger?
Reading this piece, it seems like there’s clear parallels between the actions of NPHET and of the CDC over in the US
https://www.hartgroup.org/vaccine-update/
“Worrying new safety signals emerge”
In the USA, the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) gave a presentation on 23 June. This contained the astonishing admission that the observed incidence of myocarditis and pericarditis in the 7 days following second dose of Pfizer in age groups between 12 and 24 could be anything between 30 and 200 times that expected to occur naturally (see slide 28).
Given that a significant proportion of cases of viral-induced myocarditis require heart transplantation within a decade after apparent recovery, this is extremely concerning. The outcome of vaccine-induced myocarditis could be better, worse or similar; it is simply a total unknown at this stage.
This safety signal needs to be considered within the context that young people are at an extremely low risk from COVID-19; however, in a further presentation the CDC sought to justify continuing vaccination of young people by the use of statistics which has come under criticism for very significantly exaggerating COVID-19 risks, and not taking into account the (by now) high levels of immunity in the population from exposure to the virus, or prior immunity from previous exposure to other Coronaviruses.
@F- lawless
Thanks for that piece and all your astute observations during this lovely year we have had.
I’m interested to hear what your thoughts on vaccines are?
I was very on the fence about vaccination but due to an underlying condition I did get vaccinated.
I appreciate the risk from Covid is still very low for me but I also think that society has to re-open and it cant re – open until the disease is controlled. How ‘controlled’ is open to discussion obviously.
What do you think of NPHETs latest move? Overly cautious or aware of more things coming down the track?