Tag Archives: Irish Economy

17/12/2011. Christmas Scenes Shoppers

According to the ESRI, from their latest report, Social Transfers and Poverty Alleviation in Ireland, 2004-2011; Ireland claims the top spot in Europe for AROP (At Risk of Poverty Rate).

The at-risk-of-poverty rate before social transfers is the share of persons with an equivalised disposable income, before social transfers, below the risk-of-poverty threshold, which is set at 60% of the national median equivalised disposable income (after social transfers).

 

arop-eu15aroptime

The Best Little Country In…Which to Be At Risk of Poverty (Brian Lucey)

Previously: Best For Business

Sasko Lazarov/Photocall Ireland

imfAmazing.

Just a quarter.

 Completing its tenth review of Ireland’s bailout programme, which also saw it release the final €950m of its loans, the IMF said there needed to be resolution on the 25% of loans that are currently non-performing.

The IMF said it was vital that this was achieved before the country enters the European banking union, and ahead of European stress tests due to take place next year.

And good luck with that.

Bad loans at Irish banks hindering new lending – IMF (RTE)

IMF approves $1.27bn to Ireland (irish Times)

Just not yet.

The European Commission has cut its growth forecasts for the Irish economy. The commission revised down its 2013 growth forecast for Ireland from 1.9% to 1.4%, with this year’s forecast also marginally down from 0.5% to 0.4%.

At least we have exports:

On the back of an increasingly challenging global outlook, the commission has also revised down 2013 export growth for Ireland from 4.25 to 3.5%.

Which will lead to further emigration easing the unem…

The projected unemployment rate has been revised upwards from a previous forecast of 13.7% in 2013 to 14.4% in 2014. The commission only expects a gradual fall in the unemployment rate to 13% by 2015.

Ah.

EU Growth Forecasts For Ireland (John Walsh, Irish Examiner

The Nobel prize-winning economist  writes:

A reader directs me to this interview with John Peet, the Europe editor of The Economist, who declares: “And of the countries that were in trouble, I would say Ireland looks as if it’s the best at the moment because Ireland has implemented very heavy austerity programs, but is now beginning to grow again.”

From Ireland’s Central Statistical Office:

See the return to growth, there at the end? Me neither. To be fair, Peet isn’t alone. The legend of Irish recovery has somehow set in, and nobody on the pro-austerity side seems to feel any need to look at the data, even for a minute, to check whether the legend is true. Amazing.

Austerity Fantasies (Paul Krugman, New York Times)

Irish Permanent’s loans-to-deposits ratio remains 227pc, down from 247pc last year. What this means is that the delinquent management of this bank borrowed so much in the boom to lend out that now — even after three years of contracting — for every €1 deposit the bank holds, it has lent out more than €2.27. For the bank to be viable, it has to get this ratio back to €1 of deposits equal to €1 of lending.

This implies that it has to aggressively cut lending or aggressively increase deposits or a combination of both.

…If the bank gets into a deposit war at a time when there is no demand for loans because people and companies don’t want to borrow, it is toast.

Why? Because its cost of capital is likely to be greater than its return from that capital. That is how you go bust.

 

Our Bailed Out Banks Are In Process Of Going Bust Again (David McWilliams, Irish Independent)