Today’s Sunday Business Post/Red C Poll
A new poll.
Taken before the TV3 leaders’ debate on Thursday.
What does it all mean?
Shane Heneghan writes:
Another poll that would lead to an extremely divided Dáil. It also looks like things are starting to move. Fine Gael are beginning to dive under the 30% mark. Fianna Fail are rising slowly and Sinn Fein are up three percent.
In short, this is another poll that points to protracted post election negotiations and possibly even a second election this year.
We can probably see the theme of another election enter the campaign. Leaders will and should be asked under what circumstances would they force a second general election rather than form a government and why.
One of the more interesting points here is that Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil are very close. [NUI Maynooth lecturer and election analyst] Adrian Kavanagh‘s sterile scientific means of predicting the make up of the Dail based on polls has FF getting more seats than SF despite getting less 1st preferences than them.
Would this be seen as fair? Would this affect coalition negotiations? Yes this is well well down the list of stumbling blocks to the formation of such a government, but if Gerry Adams’ party has more 1st preferences than Michael Martin’s then you can expect the phrase “rotating Taoiseach” to raise it’s head again.
Similarly, we see smaller parties continue to perform well here. Despite this, it’s still hard to see where they might gain on a constituency level. It is possible, for example, that the Social Democrats may get a mere 1.8% (3) of the seats on 4% of the vote.
Shane Heneghan is a Galway-based election expert/Irish political anorak/poll number-cruncher and part of Broadsheet’s ‘crack’ General Election 2016 team.
Pic: Sunday Business Post