Tag Archives: red c poll

From top: Red C poll results in yesterday’s Sunday Business Post; Ireland Thinks poll results in yesterday’s Irish Mail on Sunday; newspaper panel on RTÉ’s Weekend on One;

Yesterday.

On RTÉ Radio One’s Weekend on One.

Brendan O’Connor was after speaking to the show’s newspaper panel about yesterday’s most recent general election poll results when he referred to a “narrative” of the election that “this country is not doing well”.

During the newspaper panel section, Mr O’Connor spoke to the former leader of Fine Gael and former chairman of IBRC, formerly Anglo Irish Bank, Alan Dukes; political scientist at UCC Theresa Reidy; political reporter at The Irish Times Jennifer Bray; director of the ESRI Alan Barrett and Anna Marie McHugh, of the National Ploughing Association.

During their conversation, Mr O’Connor referred to an article by Richard Colwell, the CEO of Red C Research, in yesterday’s Sunday Business Post entitled ‘Youthquake a possibility as younger voters flock to Sinn Féin’.

He then had the following exchange with Mr Barrett.

Alan Barrett: “Very often, it’s digging down into the poll is as interesting as the poll itself and just to distil a number of themes. I suppose, as an economist, it won’t surprise you that I sort of, you know, focus on the economics bit on this and let me explain what I’m thinking the following way.

“Do you remember the phrase ‘it’s the economy, stupid’? And this was a mantra I think a lot of political people thought was a pretty sound way of running elections. This is really, really interesting.

“Because what we have in Ireland at the moment is, we have and economy that’s doing extremely well and we also have a poll which is telling us that the people actually trust the governing party, in this case, Fine Gael, most on the economy.

“And I think, and I’m looking at Theresa [Reidy] now, as the political scientist, in most countries in the world, if you have those sorts of numbers. There’d be a very high probability that the governing party was going to be re-elected. But in Ireland, we’re in this situation now that it looks like this will not be the case…”

Brendan O’Connor:A narrative has emerged here…”

Barrett: “It has…absolutely…”

O’Connor:That this country is not doing well. And a lot of people in the country are not doing well and that’s been the narrative of this election.”

Barrett:It has and obviously it’s getting traction, ok? But if you look at things like, you know, the standard things we look at, in terms of employment and wage growth – they, very, very often, those are really sort of the main drivers in this sort of situation.”

Later

Barrett: “Let me come back to what I was saying, for fear there was a misunderstanding. All I was saying is, across the globe, ok, it tends to be the case, when the economies are going well, governing parties get elected.”

O’Connor: “But that’s what I’m asking. What’s the disconnect here?”

Barrett: “Well, clearly, clearly we do have major challenges in the area of health and housing, there’s absolutely no doubt about that, the childcare issue I think has been…you know, I think we all understand it and we all know that these issues are in play and they’re very, very challenging.

“And clearly then the way, the narrative of the election is sort of unfolding is that people are attracted to the parties whom they feel over more hope in these areas and that’s a perfectly reasonable and understandable thing.”

Later

Alan Dukes: “First of all on the childcare issue, yes there are problems, yes there are problems of cost and availability. The fact remains…”

O’Connor: “It’s a problem of childcare, commuting and housing, it’s those three things coming together.”

Dukes: “Yes and when you look at the current state of provision and compare it with what was in 2011, for example, the improvement is huge. It’s certainly not at the point that suits everybody but the improvement is huge…”

Later

O’Connor: “Why have Fine Gael lost control of the narrative then? Why are they not able to get the narrative you’re just talking about there?”

Dukes: “Because I think…”

O’Connor: “Longer life expectancy, lots of good health outcomes, unemployment way down. Where has that got lost in all of this?”

Dukes: “Because I think there’s a natural tendency in all of us to take the progress that’s been made for granted and to want more.”

Listen back in full here

From the results of a poll commissioned by the Ana Liffey Drug Project

This morning.

The Ana Liffey Drug Project published results of a Red C poll it commissioned around drug use.

It was carried out and published as part of the group’s Safer from Harm campaign, which is calling for the decriminalisation of people who are found to have small amounts of drugs for personal use.

The campaign is also calling for drug users to be dealt with in the health system rather than the justice system.

The project explains…

Safer From Harm

Ana Liffey Drug Project

11/02/2016. TV3 LEADERS ELECTION DEBATE. Pictured  Leader Of Sinn Fein President Gerry Adams TD at the first General Election 2016 TV and radio debate on TV3 this evening in association with News talk 106fm. The debate is moderated by Newstalks Pat Kenny and TV3s Colette Fitzpatrick. Photo: Sam Boal/Rollingnews.ie 

Today’s  Sunday Business Post/Red C Poll

A new poll.

Taken before the TV3 leaders’ debate on Thursday.

What does it all mean?

Shane Heneghan writes:

Another poll that would lead to an extremely divided Dáil. It also looks like things are starting to move. Fine Gael are beginning to dive under the 30% mark. Fianna Fail are rising slowly and Sinn Fein are up three percent.

In short, this is another poll that points to protracted post election negotiations and possibly even a second election this year.

We can probably see the theme of another election enter the campaign. Leaders will and should be asked under what circumstances would they force a second general election rather than form a government and why.

One of the more interesting points here is that Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil are very close. [NUI Maynooth lecturer and election analyst] Adrian Kavanagh‘s sterile scientific means of predicting the make up of the Dail based on polls has FF getting more seats than SF despite getting less 1st preferences than them.

Would this be seen as fair? Would this affect coalition negotiations? Yes this is well well down the list of stumbling blocks to the formation of such a government, but if Gerry Adams’ party has more 1st preferences than Michael Martin’s then you can expect the phrase “rotating Taoiseach” to raise it’s head again.

Similarly, we see smaller parties continue to perform well here. Despite this, it’s still hard to see where they might gain on a constituency level. It is possible, for example, that the Social Democrats may get a mere 1.8% (3) of the seats on 4% of the vote.

Shane Heneghan is a Galway-based election expert/Irish political anorak/poll number-cruncher and part of Broadsheet’s ‘crack’ General Election 2016 team.

Fine Gael and Labour slump by five points as Sinn Fein rise (Sunday Business Post)

Pic: Sunday Business Post

POLL1

The results of a Red C poll in the Sunday Business Post at the weekend

On Sunday, the Sunday Business Post carried the results of a Red C poll, showing support for Fine Gael was up a point this month to 31%.

Other news outlets reported the results of the poll with RTÉ reporting, “At 31% it’s the highest level of support for the party since 2012.”

In his analysis, the Sunday Business Post’s deputy editor and political editor Pat Leahy wrote:

There is a saying about US presidential elections that it isn’t the guy with the answer to the question who wins; it’s the guy who gets to set the question who wins.

That is where the parties are now directing their efforts. The government parties want the question of the election to be about stability versus chaos. Sinn Féin, the hard left independents and small parties want the question to be about fairness versus austerity. Fianna Fáil is offering a bit of both – a bit of stability, a bit of fairness.

Every media interview, every piece of campaign literature stuffed through your letterbox, every speech, every canvass; politicians in all parties are supposed to follow the template decided by headquarters. “Message discipline” is one of the political buzzwords of the age. Roughly speaking it means that everyone in the party should say the same thing all the time.

For Fine Gael that means talking about the economy and the necessity for stability to sustain the recovery.

Sinn Féin is up two points today to 18 per cent and is set to make significant gains at the election, but like the independents, it has declined over the last 12 months.

As the economic recovery has gathered strength, and as austerity has ceased to be the central fact of Irish politics, those parties and independents which made opposition to austerity their central political message have seen their support eroded. When you think about it, that’s what you would have expected.”

In addition to Mr Leahy’s analysis, Richard Colwell, managing director of Red C, wrote:

For some time, Red C has championed the theory that a significant proportion of those currently claiming they will vote for Independent candidates, may simply be using this option to hold fire on where their final loyalties might lie. They are torn between anger at austerity and the broken promises they believe this government has made, and the reality that the parties they voted for at the last election are still probably the safest bet for not rocking the boat over the next five years.”

“Our prediction was that, as voters moved closer to the realities of an actual general election, they may well start to shift back to the government parties and away from their claimed support for Independent candidates.”

That shift certainly appears to be materialising to some extent for Fine Gael. The downward trend in support for Independent candidates and other parties, seen over the past four months, is very closely matched by the upward trend in support for Fine Gael.”

One man polled by Red C expressed concerns on Facebook late on Saturday night, as the poll’s results emerged in media outlets.

He wrote wrote on Facebook that he felt the phraseology used during the questioning was biased.

He wrote:

I was one of the people surveyed for this and I was shocked at how biased the phraseology used was. Questions like “given how much the economy has improved, would you risk voting for another party?” followed on from being asked to rate how much my financial situation has improved under the current Government. I stopped the questioner halfway through to ask who commissioned the survey but he wouldn’t tell. At the end I asked for a phone number for Red C to ask who commissioned the survey. So I called up and queried it and I was told they would call me back but they didn’t. At least now I know it’s the Sunday Business Post. Interesting.

Broadsheet posted this man’s comment in a post yesterday.

However, after this man contacted Red C yesterday, and discovered the questions he was concerned about were not included in the SBP coverage, he requested that the post be removed.

He was informed by Red C that some of the political questions he was asked were commissioned by a “private individual”.

Broadsheet contacted the Red C and this was confirmed.

Longer term trends positive for Fine Gael – SBP poll November 2015 (Red C)

Voters poised on standby vote (Pat Leahy, Sunday Business Post)

Steady as she goes for FG (Richard Colwell, Sunday Business Post)