From top: St Michael’s Hospital, Dun Laoghaire, County Dublin; at a COVID-19 HSE briefing press briefing last nighty were, above from left: Chief Clinical Officer Dr Colm Henry, Chair Cover 19 Expert advisory Group Dr Cillian De Gascon, Chief Medical Officer Dept of Health Dr Tony Holohan and Deputy chief Medical Officer Dept of Health Dr Ronan Glynn

Last night.

Via Alive Beo on Twitter:

I never felt the need to say this until now but as the lockdown goes on and it’s detrimental effects increase, I want to let you know that I’m an Irish doctor and I think the lockdown is a disproportionate measure and a breach of our fundamental human right to liberty

I am in a unique position in that I get a glimpse behind the scenes. A lot of scaremongering went on among colleagues, we were perpetually waiting for a surge that didn’t come- was never going to come- based on faulty models.

I think the second wave is a scare tactic. There’s no evidence that a second wave will happen. From the start this has been about scaring people to a big enough extent that they will comply with the recommendations set before them. Fear is the basis of compliance.

I could honestly write a book on the hysteria that went on in the lead up to the so-called surge expected. Intuitively I knew something was off from the start. Empty hospitals, work load quieter than ever. We were over staffed. All that hysteria got us into lockdown.

That’s why all the hospital staff have time to make TikTok videos. I’ve had more free time during my working day during this pandemic than I’ve ever had since I started working as a doctor.

There are going to be people who are trying to delegitimise your concerns about the indirect effects of prolonged lockdown.

They will call you crazy and ridicule you. My message is that you must not cower away from raising concerns. Keep fighting this!

I uphold the sanctity of human life from the moment of natural conception to the moment of natural death. I also uphold everyone’s human right to liberty.

I debated whether I should tell you this because I never want to use my career to boast or as a PR stunt. It’s my job. I don’t need people to clap for me. I just need to be true to myself and truthfully, it is my opinion that the public have been deceived to an extent.

I have earned my credentials and I gain nothing by lying to you. But I believe we need to #endthelockdownnow

Anyone?

Update:

Earlier: County By County

Meanwhile…

Meanwhile…

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74 thoughts on “Too Quiet

  1. class wario

    a cursory glance at this person’s twitter page (not to mention the far right talking points in this post) reveals a very clear political bent: why share them with the insinuation that they are an unbiased, ‘reasonable’ observer/expert cutting through the chaff? are they even a doctor?

    1. george

      Being a doctor does mean they aren’t also a gobdaw. Nor does it make them a pandemic expert. Tony Holohan is also a doctor.

          1. Cian

            I suppose you’re refer to Jesus as a “drop out fisherman” or Hitler as a “failed Artist” or any Kane West, Mark Zuckerberg, James Cameron, Oprah Winfrey, Bill Gates, Steve Jobs as “college dropouts”.

            Just because someone “drops out” of college doesn’t mean they won’t be successful.

  2. class wario

    also the cheek of a private healthcare consultant pontificating on the effect of a lack of access to healthcare

  3. Rob_G

    Your modelling and epidemiology studies are no match for Bodger’s anonymous Twitter user who claims to be a doctor.

    1. Commenter #1

      Do we get to call this kind of stuff from Bodger “fear porn”? Only fair I would have thought.

      1. Optimus Grime

        What’s the difference between fear porn and paranoia? Just asking for a friend!

    2. Ringsend Incinerator

      I’d like to see proper modelling at the daily briefing. These grey suits are just not doing it for me this season. Is Heidi Glum available?

  4. Commenter #1

    Why would the state impose restrictions that were disproportionate to the alleged threat of coronavirus/Covid 19?

    This is the fundamental question that I’d like people like Alive Beo to answer. Why has almost every country in the world introduced restrictions to varying extents in the face of this virus, if not the danger of the virus itself.

    1. Chuckenstein

      Also, our mysterious poster ‘never felt the need’ to say anything ‘until now’.

    2. SOQ

      Because the modelling projections were way off? The figures quoted never happened, even in countries with no lock down.

      1. Commenter #1

        What country had no lockdown/no restrictions, and what did their modelling say they’d experience?

      2. Cian

        You are right. The models were off.

        Back in March it was predicted that the USA was going to have ONE MILLION infections by the middle of June!

        They did lock down and hit the 1,000,000th case in 26th April; six weeks earlier than projected.

        stupid predictions!

    3. Oral

      Home wrecker Ferguson’s “Scientific” paper has a lot to do with that, showing exponential Growth to anyone in relation to viruses will alarm them, it’s scary the overwhelmingly speed.
      The problem is covid 19 is not exponential, I never knew this at the start like many but some people did and couldn’t be heard it’s highly likely Ferguson knew also along with WHO.

  5. Shitferbrains

    It’s called the success paradox. The fewer cases of the virus the more the complaints that anti -virus measures weren’t needed.

      1. newsjustin

        Yep. I think this is a very large part of it.

        Plus some people going crazy because “the models” weren’t right. Well, maybe they were the best we could come up with. Maybe there were no more reliable ones at the time. Maybe this is a new disease so it’s not very easy to predict key variables. Maybe we don’t know everything.

        And as others have asked above – what’s in it for politicians to impose an unnecessary lockdown?

      2. bisted

        …funny you should mention met eireann…they operate one of the most sophisticated models in the country…at least in the public sector…

  6. Finnster

    If Alive/Beo were to reveal something of their identity, I’d be more inclined to take these tweets seriously. Also, I would not like to be in the hands of Alive/Beo, if I were having a crisis pregnancy.

  7. Hootenanny

    Ah the old “trust me, I know cos I’m a doktur” line

    Well whether you are a doctor or not, you have a clear political agenda. Your twitter is riddled with nonsense,
    If you were my GP I would like to know so I can change to someone who won’t advise against vaccinating my children.

  8. Clampers Outside

    And if it had gone the other direction, they’d be screaming that a lockdown wasn’t put in place.
    Is it better to be safe than sorry? Isn’t the lockdown about avoiding overwhelming hospitals. And hasn’t that been achieved, and achieved successfully? Hence they are not as busy as expected.

    Rather than call the lockdown an over reaction, I’d be more inclined to say that it was a good thing, but could possibly be relaxed sooner.

    It’s been a learning curve for countries like ours who have never experienced such outbreaks.
    But when the next one comes, I don’t expect for countries to get it perfectly right either. Just look at all the countries that have had experience with sars and other outbreaks from Canada to Singapore. Those countries have had their own criticism from the medical field in their own respective countries and have even in Singapore case had to re assert measures after relaxing them too soon.

    I imagine, and c have seen a lot of it already, of criticism of various countries responses from many who see this as a “if you did x, y would not have happened or x wouldn’t be so bad, or Z wasn’t considered” as if all these were known quantities before all this started.

    Criticism needs to be measured and productive and take account of the few knowns, but more importantly have some account or awareness of the many unknowns at the start.

    Any criticism that flat out says, “x decision was stupid, look at y now” will be ignored by myself, if they don’t make it known in their criticism the many other variables at play beyond simply x and y.

    1. Oral

      I agree with everything you said here, it’s what I thought at the start, the late shut down wasn’t aversion to risk though ,it was too late as it was out by then, it was more politics because covid19 was more popular by then.

      The problem with everyone who wasn’t hysterical was we thought Covid 19 was exponential ,it wasn’t and never was, Ferguson’s models are based on this, if this is the case then the Ferguson’s ,fauci’ s and super Tony cervical check amnesiac holohan knew also.

      Sweden and Estonia highlight this as it stands

  9. missred

    That twitter user is a doctor in the same way that I’m fuppin Madonna. Why is this person’s unproven opinion being presented as a legitimate argument?

    1. Oral

      Define “unproven”.
      Is it peer reviewed experts ,experts,experts etc etc because there are issues at the moment with said “industries”. An extreme example is eugenics seen as an expert science.
      If you want to prove the good doctor or fake doctors opinions head down to the local hospital and see with provable vision. The theory is they shouldn’t be overwhelmed but they should be very busy, many are extremely quiet, surely you know someone who knows a doctor, consultant or nurse and can ask?

      1. ReproBertie

        Vincent’s have 5 wards for Covid or suspected Covid patients and the beds in those 5 wards are full. While their ICU never reached capacity (which was the point of the lockdown) there has been no reduction in admissions. Does that count as busy?

        1. Orla

          Yes it does count as busy but what about other hospitals and the extra facilities set up, what about Irelands call to bring health pros back home And empty nightingale styled facilities.
          If you look at the hospitals in 2017 and 2018 alone during flu seasons it was horrendous, nobody in pop culture cared for the most part, look at Simon,leo and Tony’s quotes from last year alone about the situation baring in mind this was off the back of the cervical check scandal, with all that in mind you have to ask what they are at now, it’s clearly politics being played we are currently not privy to .

          1. Commenter #1

            Extra capacity was built into the system anticipating that efforts to contain the spread of the virus may not work. It turns out that they did work. This is a Good Thing. I would like extra capacity in the health system all the time, personally.

            No one has given me a persuasive answer to the question though: if you believe the government has been excessive in its restrictions, why do you think they made that choice?

          2. ReproBertie

            The flu doesn’t kill as many people.
            There is already a flu vaccination programme which is advertised annually and funded by government.
            What they are at now is attempting to reduce the impact of this new deadly virus.
            Why do you believe it has to be more than that?

  10. Holden

    Just because Twitter allows this doesn’t mean you should echo it Broadsheet/Nick. I’m a bit disappointed.
    There’s enough damaging misinformation going around right now. You should know better.

    1. Oral

      How do you know what you know not to be misinformation? The good doctor/non doctors point is easily proven by a quick trip to the local hospital or talking with some professional within the profession , most hospitals are not busy,they should be busier if this was a pandemic, lock down should only prevent overwhelming the system and just at that if it is a severe pandemic.

  11. Kerryview

    There is a valid point here. The number of patients with serious chronic and not so chronic conditions who have not been seen by their consultants/care team is immense. Most of these people (including me, to be fair) do not have a future appointment. Don’t forget the flu vaccination season is not far away. The tsunami of people needing appointments will be overwhelming, I suggest. The second wave may not be due to covid19, but to conditions that would otherwise have been managed on an ongoing basis, if I could rob a cliche. Hope to see you next year…….

    1. Commenter #1

      This is very true. I have family members who have had elective procedures postponed. This will have a real impact on capacity down the road, as restrictions are lifted. But I would like those arguing for “ending the lockdown now” like Alive Beo to say why they think the restrictions have been put in place, if they are excessive?

      My position, for what it’s worth: the virus is very contagious, very new, and very dangerous, and for that reason it’s better that the response to it is excessive rather than the alternative. We are seeing that the countries that put the most draconian measures in place seem to have had the best experience.

  12. Tony

    Do these anti-vaxxers want to end lockdown because they like the notion of people facing the virus without a vaccine?

    1. Oral

      Your already facing the virus without a vaccine, a vaccine for SARS viruses are not cures , these viruses adapt real quick, flu vaccines work for some But not for all.
      Anti vax and pro vax folks are both delusional and in the same boats of conspiracy theories ,both boats are sinking while screaming hysterically at each other.

      1. Commenter #1

        If anti-vax and pro-vax folks are both delusional, what is the rational attitude towards vaccination?

  13. goldenbrown

    hmm

    I started reading this I thought he was going to have a rant at how we do not appear to have a system yet to resume all the non-Covid related day to day treatments and procedures (which is fair enough, I know a few distressed people in my own circle who have had procedures cancelled) but this appears to be some kind of other Waters/G.O.D spacer rant

    he seems to completely forget/ignore the fact that SARS-CoV-2 does exist, is very widespread in the community, is very very successful at its transmission and is currently only partially understood (apart from the Covid-19 itself there are other direct/indirectly caused issues involving heart, kidney and immuno dysfunctionality being reported now)…..oh yeah and it has the potential to end your life in a horrible way.

    perhaps this guy is having some kind of pinhead argument with himself about the Hippocratic Oath or whatever code of ethics he’s signed up to in his head

    I’m glad he isn’t my doctor

  14. Frank.A

    The economy and dare I say the society we previously enjoyed has been shutdown and damaged for a long time to come. Years? Decades?
    Covid19 is unpleasant. I’ve had it and shook it off in about a week. It doesn’t kill you.
    It does kill the elderly with underlying health conditions. If we were to rewind to March 1st surely the advice should have been –
    Make sure it does not enter elderly care homes.
    – Elderly people with health conditions remove from circulation.
    – Let the rest of us carry on in order to finance these measures.

    The extraordinary measures should be lifted immediately and we should get back to rebuilding our destroyed economy / society.

    The breakdown of deaths speak for themselves.
    Breakdown of the 1339 deaths
    542 occurred in hospital (45.5%)
    62 occurred in Intensive Care Units (4.9%)
    1147 were reported as having underlying health conditions
    683 male and 653 female
    the median age was 84
    the mean age was 82

    1. Rob_G

      Well, so long as you are alright, that’s what matters; I’d hate to think of you being inconvenienced by a mere 1,300 dead mothers, fathers, husbands, wives, friends…

    2. goldenbrown

      Frank re. your comment “It doesn’t kill you” well it may not have killed YOU but it does kill plenty of other people and not all predictable trope “elderly” either!

      this pathogen is far from being understood properly

      may I ask where you obtained your breakdown of numbers of deaths from? was there a breakdown of age groups killed (as opposed to just median age?)

        1. goldenbrown

          thanks Cian…and that’s a very useful link but the reports don’t seem to give any age-defined view on deaths, only those who have been hospitalised

          I actually couldn’t find that particular breakdown info regarding deaths recorded anywhere thus the question to Frank there….it’s easy enough to quote “median” numbers when it suits your argument that old/vunerable people should be shoveled into a prison (sorry cocooned) so the rest of us can carry on servicing the economy

          and I get his conundrum (it’s the same one we’re all struggling with longerterm) but there’s no realistic humane answer here that I can see beyond:
          (a) invent + deploy vaccine
          (b) completely upend the way we do economics/capitalism

          this is a grim situation and not easily resolved

          1. Cian

            Try this: Table 5 page 7
            https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19%20Epidemiology%20report%20for%20NPHET%2020200503_v1%20website.pdf

            It has breakdowns, by age group, of the deaths from hospitals (there are ~250 non-hospital deaths not included). as 03/05/2020

            <5 0 deaths
            6-14 0 deaths
            15-24 2 deaths
            25-34 4 deaths
            35-44 9 deaths
            45-54 20 deaths
            55-64 47 deaths
            Age 65+ 992 deaths
            Total 1074 deaths

          2. GiggidyGoo

            Why no numbers
            65 to 74
            75 to 84
            85 to 94
            95 to 105

            And the data isn’t set in stone. It’s provisional.

          3. goldenbrown

            nice 1 Cian thanks for that info

            see (to me anyway) that breakdown you’ve just given us there presents as a substantially different picture to “the median age was 84”

            RIP

      1. Frank

        the point I’m making is the community that the virus effects (elderly with underlying problems and those who look after them) should have been the only ones to remove from circulation. the healthy keep the show on the road.
        instead our entire system has been collapsed. that is the catastrophe not the ravages of the virus on our elderly and sick.

        1. Rob_G

          “Hey care assistants – bad news, you have to go and live in the nursing home and not see your families or friends for the next two years. Also, diabetics and people with asthma – you have to quit your jobs and not leave the house indefinitely”

          1. ReproBertie

            And we’ll do this on the assumption that those under a certain age won’t die from it.

            Even though they will.

          2. Frank

            how many healthy people with no underlying medical conditions under 60 have died of covid19 in ireland ReproBertie?

          3. Frank

            test the carers and train them to wash their hands properly would be sufficient

          4. ReproBertie

            Why don’t you tell me Frank?

            Is there a different virus in Ireland or do deaths of those under 60 in other countries not count when we try to decide how lethal it is?

          5. ReproBertie

            While you’re at it Frank you might give a list of what counts as an underlying condition and the numbers of people in Ireland under 60 with an underlying condition. Presumably they’d all need locking up too.

          6. Frank

            I’m not sure what you’re trying to say Repro.
            of the 1339 deaths here 1147 had underlying health problems. the mean age was 84.
            that’s gov.ie figures not something I’m making up.
            it’s not killing and healthy people.
            fit and healthy people do the work that drives the economy that makes the society we all enjoy. old young healthy sick.
            that system has been crashed and that is a gigantic mistake.

          7. ReproBertie

            What I’m saying Frank is that the virus does kill people under 60. We don’t have a full breakdown on deaths by age in Ireland but at least two people under 25 have died because of the virus in Ireland.

            We’re told these who died have underlying conditions but we are not told what that covers. Is asthma an underlying condition, for example? If underlying conditions are a factor, and they appear to be, then we need a list of underlying conditions and numbers of people in Ireland with underlying conditions before we can decide to only lock up those over 60. We know, for example, that obese people who are infected with Covid-19 are more likely to end up in ICU than non-obese people. What are the obesity numbers like in Ireland? What are the obesity numbers like in what you call the “fit and healthy people do the work that drives the economy”.

            Another thing to be taken into consideration is the number of people under 60 (I’m using this age because you did) who were infected, required hospital care and recovered. This adds a strain to the hospital bed numbers and possibly to ICU but they won’t show up in the deaths column. How do we estimate that impact on the hospital services in a situation where we have no lockdown and hospitals are trying to work as normal?

            Even with the lockdown we have just shy of 22,000 cases. We don’t know what that number would be like without the lockdown but we know, based on the rate of infection prior to lockdown, that it would be higher. We don’t know how many of those cases would have ended up requiring hospitalisation, or taking up ICU beds, putting an extra strain on the health service.

            That’s a lot of don’t knows that you’re happy to ignore in your strategy of just locking up the elderly and telling carers to wash their hands.

          8. Frank

            if you have a serious underlying medical condition regardless of your age you should exercise caution. be that in flu season or novel virus pandemic season and if you’re obese and have a serious medical condition, you’re probably cutting your chance of survival from any major event by a huge percentage.

            fit and healthy people are not dying. if you can see some data somewhere that says otherwise share it.

            our entire way of life has been collapsed to protect the portion of community that depends on us to support it. that is pure anarchy.

            protection of that vulnerable community should have been the priority.

    3. Johnnythree

      I agree with this above.
      I fully get that we don’t know a lot about the virus. Fully get that we may get sick from it. Fully get that we get all sorts of data and reports etc. BUT … the country is shut down, completely pretty much, we have economic damage , societal damage, impacts on mental health, future impacts on our health system. For what? Because we were over cautious? Our government passed laws with almost no debate to stop us going past 2km (now 5km) despite no evidence that it would help. (I am not Gemma or John W BTW but they do have a point – where is the evidence?)
      Now we are a few weeks in it appears:
      1. The overcautious approach makes less difference than we thought ( Look at Sweden, less lockdown, more faith in citizens common sense, no laws passed limiting personal freedom)
      2. A lot of the flattening of the curve happened pre- lockdown.
      3. We are heading for one of the longest exits from lockdown.
      4. Our hospitals are quiet, no emergency hospitals needed.
      5. Our Government have successfully used fear/ lack of facts to lock down an entire country and we are OK with it?
      6. When we look at the figures for deaths its clear a huge majority of the deaths were underlying conditions/ aged/ in care homes . That does not make it OK but it should be borne in mind.
      7. The testing they said they would do is not being done. Testing centres are empty/ closed.
      8. Private hospital deal? Who is profiting and why? Again, very few questions asked.

      Now the Govt think that testing is going to allow us out of lockdown – ramp up the testing. they say ‘Like Taiwan’ they say….totally different case, society, everything. Testing only works when you combine it with an App/ contact tracing and locking down the infected. How can we do that here when people wont join the app (data privacy/ effectiveness). If they do testing what will they find? Negatives and a small proportion of positives highly dependent on you being lucky enough to be testing the asymptomatic sick at the exact right time. It will just give data that is poor for use as it can drive no changes.
      There is no reliable antibodies test if there was I think it would reveal is that there is a huge prevalence of C19 recovered population which will make this much more infectious than we thought and much less harmful than we thought. Look at the figures for this since start to now, where it happened, age groups etc. Sobering but not like we were told.

      We can’t seem to have any discussion about the above without people being labeled ‘granny killers’ or conspiracy theorists. Our rights to movement and economic prosperity are not necessarily trumped by fears of a virus that may prove unfounded. Don’t start me about the ‘second wave’ .

    4. Kate

      Glad you recovered Frank. You have could ended up in the back of a chilled trailer unit set up for corpses by the HSE.
      The mind boggles at the plandemic ‘s cuckoo brains.

      1. millie in quarantine

        “Plandemic”

        Well that’s one way to have anything you’ve written here dismissed as errant nonsense.

  15. ian-oh

    How is this of interest?

    Its an anonymous twitter account. Literally anyone could be behind it, even people like 5Gemma or Watery? Even Qbert.

    I know a few health care workers of different disciplines and they are saying different to this person so I will listen to the people I know and know are doctors and nurses rather than this nonsense.

    The lock down is not good, the alternative appears to be worse. I could be wrong though, but am willing to err on the side of caution on this one. I have an underlying condition and was told very bluntly that this could kill me.

    I like living so yeah, I’m not taking any chances.

  16. Ringsend Incinerator

    Never mind that, who cares about such semantics when there are old folks skateboarding and break dancing in the park in Dun Leary.

    And what’s up with the cans at 11 in the morning?

    FFS. Has anyone told them it’s dangerous to drink and rollerskate at the same time? They’ll be the first ones to go whingeing about the HSE when they break a hip.

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