Tag Archives: GE16

 

Taoiseach Enda Kenny channeling his inner Bertie last night in County Mayo.

Whinger boo! hiss.

Enda Kenny on Broadsheet.ie

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A Red C poll in The Sunday Business Post last November

The managing director of Red C, Richard Colwell, told RTÉ’s Liveline this afternoon that there will be a Red C poll in this weekend’s Sunday Business Post while it’s his understanding there will be a poll by other companies carried in The Sunday Times and The Sunday Independent.

Mr Colwell also said he believes the Irish Times will have a poll next week – ahead of Friday’s election.

Further to this…

Oireachtas Retort has a new post… on polls.

From the post:

Take the bemusement and sensationalism that greeted water protests in the latter part of 2014. Opinion pages and airwaves were full of amateur anthropologists scratching their heads as if they had stumbled upon a lost Amazonian tribe. ‘What is it these people want?’ the media wondered.

The anger and motivations were incomprehensible and this is the result when “politics” is ring-fenced as a game of swings and arrhythmic. Just think how opinion polls feed a narrative about ‘stable government’ for example. This is bread and butter on which journalists and politicians can expound at length. Polls put them in safe and comfortable territory. Now take the other media narratives polls have produced over the last five years.

– Fianna Fáil support static and the pressure this put on that party’s leadership
– Horror and bewilderment that Sinn Féin support, while reaching a ceiling, had not went into decline on foot of continuous real and entirely contrived outrages.
– The slow demise of the Labour Party
– The seemingly unshakable rise of Independents/Other

Acres of coverage was devoted to these stories based on little more than fluctuations within the margin of error. The water protests demonstrated that not only had all this polling left journalists completely unaware of public sentiment, but that the media by and large are unequipped to discuss and contextualise equally valid political activity that occurs outside the gates of Leinster House.

Opinion Polls (Oireachtas Retort)

Previously: A Local Look For Local People

Nothing To C Here

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Oireachtas Retort tweetz:

Either Fidelma [Healy Eames] is trying to break up [with] me or she found an ingenious way of asking voters to ignore her record to date.

Litir Um Thoghchán From Fidelma Healy Eames -Independent -Galway West #Ge16 (Irish Election Literature)

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From top: RTÉ; today’s Irish Independent; Kevin Rafter

The main story in this morning’s Irish Independent, by Fionnan Sheahan and Kevin Doyle, is headlined ‘Revealed: Sinn Féin’s bid to intimidate RTÉ’.

It is based on an academic paper by Associate Professor of Political Communication Kevin Rafter, of Dublin City University, who looked at RTÉ’s coverage of the 2011 general election.

The Irish Independent article states:

A study of coverage in the 2011 general election shows Sinn Féin and the Labour Party got too much attention from RTÉ.

However, an internal RTÉ review found there had been “a campaign orchestrated by Sinn Féin supporters” to complain about time allocations to their party and candidates.

In addition:

…Gerry Adams’s party is now trying to bully RTÉ into giving it more favourable treatment in the General Election. Even RTÉ’s best-known current affairs broadcaster Miriam O’Callaghan is being attacked on the internet by Sinn Féin supporters.

In relation to Sinn Féin’s ‘bid to intimidate RTÉ’, the Irish Independent refers to a story in An Phoblacht published two days ago, and tweets sent to RTÉ presenter Miriam O’Callaghan about the fact that her brother Jim O’Callaghan is a Fianna Fáil candidate.

In reference to the An Phoblacht article, Mr Sheahan reports:

The party is complaining about RTÉ featuring its stance on the abolition of the Special Criminal Court last week.

“RTÉ News is being challenged by Sinn Féin about why its choosing of news stories with a slant against the party is being unfairly used to slash its election coverage,” the party said in its propaganda newspaper, ‘An Phoblacht’.

In addition, in a separate opinion piece by Mr Sheahan, he claims:

The Shinnerbots have been busy over recent days as the party has claimed it is being silenced by RTÉ. Supporters are sharing and reacting to their campaign claiming victimhood.

… Regulating the Airwaves: How Political Balance is Achieved in Practice in Election News Coverage also reveals an insidious campaign by Sinn Féin supporters to bully RTÉ into giving their candidates more airtime.

…The “orchestrated campaign” clearly worked.

So Sinn Féin is at it again.

Mr Rafter’s paper – Regulating the Airwaves: How Political Balance is Achieved in Practice in Election News Coverage – does state that an internal RTÉ review found there had been “a campaign orchestrated by Sinn Féin supporters”.

However the paper includes no details of the  campaign.

It simply refers to a note about ‘a campaign’ by Sinn Féin in an RTÉ review and even refers to it as being ‘a low level campaign by Sinn Féin supporters’.

Further to this…

New laws, enacted in 2009, meant that the regulation of both public and private broadcasters were to be regulated by the Broadcasting Authority of Ireland.

However, Mr Rafter noted:

The BAI’s Code on Election Coverage did not contain any practical guidelines on how broadcasters were to ensure their election coverage was fair, objective and impartial. The document noted that it was ‘a matter for individual broadcasters to decide the most effective way to reflect all the interests involved in an election…’.

As such, broadcasters were left to their own devices in implementing campaign communication regulations. Moreover, the BAI did not actively monitor coverage for compliance. Members of the public with a grievance were facilitated through the normal broadcast complaints system overseen by the BAI, which essentially meant complaints could not be adjudicated upon during the election period.

Either way, in light of this legal change, Mr Rafter looked at the impact of these regulations on RTÉ and its coverage of the Irish general election in 2011 in three specific areas – RTÉ’s election news coverage, its political advertising and its leader debates.

To carry out his investigation, Mr Rafter focused on minutes of internal meetings at RTÉ during the campaign period and other documentation, including minutes of RTÉ’s Steering Committee – made up of senior managers from across RTÉ and whose purpose was to contribute ‘to the goal of objective, impartial and fair coverage by RTÉ of the election campaign and count programming’.

The committee also liaised with political parties.

In relation to members of the SC meeting with representatives of the main political parties – Fine Gael, Labour, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin – to discuss the leader debates, Mr Rafter states:

“Formal representations throughout the campaign were viewed as relatively low with individual programmes receiving what was described as the ‘usual amount of representations from the parties about perceived inadequacies in RTE´s coverage’. There were, however, repeated references to complaints from Sinn Féin supporters. At the conclusion of the election, an internal review noted that that there had been ‘a campaign orchestrated by Sinn Féin supporters’. Many of these complaints were about time allocations to parties and candidates. It was adjudged that there was ‘a low level campaign by Sinn Féin supporters’ who claimed their party was under-represented based on its standing in public opinion polls. This bias claim was, however, not borne out by internal data compiled by RTE during the campaign…”

It is this paragraph that is the basis for this morning’s Irish Independent story.

However, a closer look at Mr Rafter’s analysis shows a much more interesting story – how RTÉ struggled to give a fair amount of time to small parties and Independent candidates.

Mr Rafter explains that, traditionally, RTÉ allocated air time to different parties during a general election campaign based on the first preference votes each party won in the previous general election – with some flexibility extended when there were changes in public opinion or the emergence of new parties.

However, RTÉ was ‘unable to take account of the dramatic shifts in public opinion’ – shown in the table below – in the run-up to the 2011 general election:

Screen Shot 2016-02-18 at 12.27.00

Mr Rafter explained that, in November 2010, a list of 12 questions were distributed in an RTÉ staff memo outlining what aspects should be considered in regards to coverage.

But, Mr Rafter said:

“In truth, the unwieldy 12-point list offered little clarification. There was an absence of weighting criteria to specify the relative importance of each point in determining on-air coverage allocations. As the general election campaign drew closer, there was further internal discussion about the distribution of on-air time among the political parties. What is evident from minutes of these discussions is acceptance that the changed political landscape since 2007 meant the traditional policy based on the previous general election results was unsustainable.”

In January 2011, RTÉ then ‘privately examined’ several different ways of calculating a way of allocating on-air time and even engaged in ‘confidential discussions’ with ‘a number of academics to examine how RTE should deal with coverage allocation’.

Following these private discussions, there was a preference for the following four factors to be considered: first preference votes in the 2007 election; percentage of seats held by the party at the calling of the election in 2011; an estimate of the number of candidates nominated by each party in 2011; and an average of (a) average opinion poll results from 2007 to 2011, (b) percentage of first preference vote in the 2009 European elections and (c) percentage of first preference vote in the 2009 local elections.

But, Mr Rafter noted, while several different options were considered:

‘When the calculations were undertaken, however, the coverage allocation outcomes per party were in fact relatively similar.’

In particular there was a problem with the fourth factor, in regards to polls, given that smaller parties were not included in national polls.

Mr Rafter stated:

“This weakness was acknowledged with a proposal that category four for smaller parties would be calculated only on local and European results in 2009. The wider issue of basing coverage allocations in a national parliamentary election on the results from second-order electoral contests, where results can vary with ‘very little at stake’, does not appear to have been considered.”

Mr Rafter also stated that, in addition to these discussions being held in private, the BAI was not consulted about them.

Mr Rafter said that while RTÉ claimed to endeavour for its political party coverage not to ‘be reduced to a stopwatch exercise’ it was, in fact, ‘very much driven by time allocations’.

In a bid to monitor its coverage, RTÉ employed a researcher for the duration of the election to prepare reports on the proportion of on-air time given to candidates and parties – including the following table:

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Mr Rafter explained:

“The data in Table 2 are drawn from the results of RTE’s own monitoring of its programme coverage during the 2011 election campaign. The data are cumulative, so for example, the figures on 8 February include all programme coverage from the start of monitoring on 1 February up until 8 February.”

“From the outset of the election campaign internal concerns were expressed in RTE about the proportion of coverage being given to independent candidates and those representing smaller parties. Examples of recorded comments include the following: ‘It was emphasised that all programmes must work towards getting the proportion of attention given to independents and smaller parties up to acceptable levels’, ‘…some concerns at the need to significantly increase the level of attention to others/smaller parties’, ‘Once again programme makers were asked to use every available opportunity to include others/smaller parties as the guideline for their proportion of attention was difficult to achieve’, ‘Concerns continue to be raised about the excessive level of attention to Labour and the under-attention for independents and others.’

Specifically, RTÉ’s review of its coverage – at the midpoint of the election – found the following:

Fianna Fáil was in the 30-31 per cent range when the guidelines stated FF should receive 31 per cent.

Fine Gael was in the 25-27 per cent range when the guidelines stated FG should receive 27 per cent.

Labour was in the 20-25 per cent range when the guidelines stated Labour should receive 13 per cent.

Sinn Féin was in the 9-12 per cent range when the guidelines stated SF should receive 7 per cent.

Green Party was in the 5-8 per cent range when the guidelines stated it should receive 5 per cent.

Others/independents were in the 3-8 per cent range when guidelines stated they should receive 18 per cent.

Mr Rafter noted from the minutes of RTÉ’s Steering Committee, that:

“Specific suggestions to address the problem included devoting more time to smaller parties and independents on afternoon television programmes and on Late Debate, a late night radio programme. The fact that these slots in the programme schedules attracted relatively modest audiences vis-a-vis appearances on prime time news and current affairs programmes was not mentioned.”

In addition, after the 2011 election, it was noted in minutes of the RTE Steering Committee from March 2011 that, ‘as with previous elections the level of attention given to independents remains problematic’.

Mr Rafter explained that RTE proffered different reasons for the imbalance of its coverage:

“Several justifications were postulated within RTE in the aftermath of the general election to explain the imbalance in coverage across the various political groupings. Sensitivity relating to coverage of independent candidates was evident.”

“Justifications – perhaps better described as excuses – included the fact that ‘independents with little or no track record find it difficult to get on radio or television’: ‘the role of political parties in government forming’; and the strength of established parties ‘given that elections are largely fought through political parties and track records are important in determining attention this is inevitable’.”

“The post-election rationale, however, contrasts sharply with the ongoing internal concern repeatedly expressed during the campaign itself and does little to explain why the evident coverage variations were not more seriously addressed in programme output during the campaign itself.

“This outcome hardly meets the BAI’s requirement to deal with election coverage issues at an early stage. Moreover, once decisions were taken internally within RTE, the provision of information to all interested parties, including it is assumed voters, was not a priority.”

Regulating the Airwaves: How Political Balance is Achieved in Practice in Election News Coverage (Irish Political Studies)

Revealed: Sinn Féin’s bid to intimidate RTÉ (Irish Independent)

Revealed: Sinn Féin’s ‘orchestrated campaign’ of intimidation against RTÉ (Fionnan Sheahan, Irish Independent)

How bullying RTÉ worked for Sinn Féin at the last election, so the party is at it again (Fionnan Sheahan, Irish Independent)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_soWr9SMLE&feature=youtu.be

This just in.

Kind of like celebrities reading mean tweets about themselves but different.

May contain colourful language.

Paddy Power Blog

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Taoiseach Enda Kenny on the Today with Seán O’Rourke show this morning

This morning Taoiseach Enda Kenny was interviewed by RTÉ’s Seán O’Rourke.

They discussed, among other things, the reported comment from a key Government strategist that “we will scare the shit out of them in the last 10 days” and the FG/FF will they/won’t they.

They also talked about his election promise to abolish USC, and how both Finance Minister Michael Noonan and junior finance minister Simon Harris missed two days of meetings in Brussels about the global markets.

While discussing Minister Noonan, Mr Kenny wasn’t asked about the report in yesterday’s Irish Examiner about barrister Garry O’Halloran’s claims that Mr Noonan ran away from a meeting to discuss concerns about sex abuse involving children at the Fine Gael Ard Fheis in 1997.

Mr O’Halloran claimed Mr Noonan’s alleged actions prompted him to quit Fine Gael.

From the interview…

Enda Kenny: “I don’t take much notice of polls, I’m always an optimist. General elections are always about a real fight, a real challenge, I’m up for this. Obviously, the challenge for me and for the party, is to explain to people over the next nine days what is on offer here. And what is on offer is a Government of stability with a very clear plan, create the 200,000 jobs, reduce taxes and invest that back for the employment of people and things are around the country that people need: primary care centres, schools and so forth.”

Sean O’Rourke: “OK, we’ll come back to some of those details but Frank Flannery, for instance, said you’re not explaining your case properly. We saw Richard Bruton warning in the Independent today, we could end up like Greece, Leo Varadkar saying ye mightn’t even be the biggest party, warning of instability. It’s all in line with a quote from Government strategist in the [Sunday] Business Post – “we will scare the shit out of them in the last 10 days”. So, Taoiseach, what’s your scare story this morning?”

Kenny: “My story is reality because I’m a realist. Politics is the lifeblood of, elections is the lifeblood of politicians and they’re about choices and this was always going to be a dogfight, it was always going to be a challenge in every constituency, every seat is a battlefield, everybody knows that. Did anybody think that this was going to be a cakewalk or a doddle – maybe some people did. Not from me. So my proposition…”

O’Rourke: “But this slump, the slump?”

Kenny: “My proposition, Seán, is that for the last five years, we were given a mandate, handed a pretty tough card, we’ve moved the country in the right direction, we still have to complete that job. So what I want to say to people all over the country is there’s a proposition on the table here for a clear, stable Government that will deliver on a costed plan, that will create benefits for everybody. I think, I think the weakness that I’ve had in the argument to date is to translate the recovery into what it means in every part of the country in people’s lives. And I can see that beginning to emerge with, the people have come back from Australia, and the Christening was at home, not away, but he said it’s not about monetary value, it’s about emotional reunification…and they’re coming home, Seán.”

O’Rourke: “But at the same time, the papers today are full of these scare stories being put out by your colleagues in Cabinet. Now how much of that is due to the Tory influence? Because we know your people spend time in London, studying their methods…”

Enda Kenny laughs

O’Rourke: “… and they succeeded by warning the people that a vote for Labour was a vote for the Scottish nationals.”

Kenny: “Oh for god’s sake, you study elections all over the world and who does what. I mean people are clued into American television and American elections. Also you’ve had elections in Britain, you’ve had referenda in Britain, and all, people who are interested in politics and these things. Our challenge here is on the 26th, there will be a general election. The people are making a choice, what do they want? My proposition is for a stable Government to that recovery to translate it into benefit for everybody.”

O’Rourke: “Yes, but the difficulty is maybe what really scares people is the idea that you will not do all in your power to give the Irish people a stable government with the results that they give you on the 26th.”

Kenny: “I intend to give them every opportunity to have a stable government. That’s why my proposition is for a return of the existing government because in order to have a stable government, obviously, you’ve got to have the numbers but, more importantly, is that you have the plan and the programme and the capacity to implement it.”

O’Rourke: “But the numbers, they’re not pointing that way…”

Kenny: “It’s not just a list of promises, this is a costed plan. Because the more, when you reduce taxes, you take in more. So therefore you create more jobs. All of the parties are talking about spending money in the future. The only way you can have that is to have a process, is to have a programme that you can create the jobs, reduce the level of taxes and the USC abolition is a central feature of that and thereby invest that in…”

Talk over each other

O’Rourke: “Yeah but you’re basic contention seems to be that, you know, you reduce taxes and you take in more. Now what’s that based on? Because maybe this explains why people are not swinging around and supporting you and why there has been a slump because Fine Gael traditionally is associated with prudence, with sound finance, with stability and at the same time you’re offering people and this has more echoes really with the election campaign of 2007, you’re offering them, effectively, tax cuts, you’re offering them extra services and people see, look, this doesn’t really add up.”

Kenny: “Sean, we set out five years ago to create 100,000 jobs. Everybody said you can’t do this, it won’t work, you’ll never achieve it. But that’s what did happen. A central feature of the next programme, to create 200,000 jobs is to abolish the universal social charge because that creates more jobs, when you lessen the range of tax that are there. You then have more coming into the economy from those jobs that you invest in, in employing teachers, primary care centres, doctors, gardai, nurses and so on.”

O’Rourke: “You honestly think we can afford this? Because again, all, well I won’t say all, a lot of very wise economists, varying from the Fiscal Advisory Council to people like Colm McCarthy, are warning you and your colleagues that public debt in Ireland remains at a very high level. It could compromise our access to the markets, given the jitters that are there. It wouldn’t take a whole lot, Karl Whelan is saying that fiscal space, that can change very very quickly.”

Kenny: “I love the economists, even Joseph Stiglitz said out to me in Davos, Ireland was the best of the lot. If we moved in a different direction, we’re further down the road than we should be. Still a long journey to compete. But the point is that, in order, to have the 200,000 jobs, a central feature is abolish the USC, you reduce the level of ta-, you create more jobs and reduce the level of taxation paid in those. That’s why we’ve had the 100,000 jobs created…

Later

O’Rourke: “As recently as last week, and again amidst all of this uncertainty, there was a meeting of the Ecofin ministers, the European finance and economic ministers in Brussels, two days, it was to address the global markets meltdown. No Michael Noonan, no Simon Harris. Why?”

Kenny: “I don’t know. Obviously, the issue that was, the issue may have been finalised before anybody attended, I don’t know, I can’t answer that for you. I’ll speak to Michael later on.”

O’Rourke: “This is the kind of thing that you used to remonstrate Fianna Fáil for…”

Talk over each other

Kenny: “I’m going out, I’m going out, I’m going to Brussels on Thursday and Friday to defend the interests of this country and Britain…”

Talk over each other

O’Rourke: “Is it acceptable to you that neither the minister nor the junior minister attends a meeting of that importance?”

Kenny: “I much prefer all ministers to attend all meetings. There must have been a reason for this, I’m sure somebody else…it is true to say that I did remonstrate before with Fianna Fáil for missing numerous meetings over the years. This is not a situation that I like. But I do make the point, I’m going out myself on Thursday and Friday, if you like, to defend the situation that we’re in now here where the proposals for Brexit are being put on the table but the British Prime Minister. I support this very strongly. That Britain should remain a central part of the European Union and I’m going out there to defend our interest and put our case very strongly to the colleagues around the table at the European Council.”

Listen back here