Tag Archives: Property Bubble

Dr John McCartney, Director of Research at Savills Ireland

Honestly.

Supply is catching up with demand.

Look into the eyes not around the eyes.

Savills’ Dr John McCartney writes (via The Irish Times):

Opposition politicians of all creeds have made housing their main point of attack. Meanwhile, private sector economists have rowed in to emphasise the intractability of our housing problems.

It would be wrong to say these commentators are spinning the crisis, but, equally, it is plain to see how they might benefit from the perception that Ireland is facing a quasi-permanent shortage of residential property.

For Opposition politicians, an obdurate housing crisis provides the opportunity to sell hope.

…In recent years I have seen estimates of the annual home-building requirement ranging from around 20,000 to over 50,000 units. Based on recent pricing evidence, it seems those who were towards the lower end of this range have been the most correct.

In a nutshell, it looks like house price index (HPI) and rent inflation are slowing simply because supply is catching up with demand.

Looking ahead, high rents will continue to put pressure on tenants in the private rental sector.

But further output growth in the short run should start to bring inflation more into line with earnings growth.

Longer-term, if completions were to continue rising, as in recent years, the biggest concern would actually be about over-supply.

Anyone?

Ireland’s housing market is stabilising, despite claims to the contrary (Dr John McCartney, Irish Times)

Pic:Savills

Thanks Vanessa

Good times.

Um.

“A blank canvas is presented to the market and the opportunity to put your own stamp on this canvas is at hand…

…set in the famous South Lotts area of Ringsend which once housed dockers, millers, bakers, gas workers, butchers and glass bottle makers…

…now it is home to software engineers, computer scientists and social media gurus as well as the local community and it retains its ambience and a sense that people still count. A true community feel…”

30 Square metres.

Outside loo.

Social media gurus.

This is the best property bubble ever!

6 South Dock Street, Ringsend, Dublin 4 (Daft)

Thanks Yadda Yad

 

First Time Buyer writes;

We woke up to the news today that Dublin property prices are predicted to return to pre-crisis prices by February 2020 – a mere 2½ years away.

The caveat of course is that this prediction has been made by “experts” Savills, who its fair to say have a bit of a vested interest in the property game.

Nevertheless you have to ask yourself, how did a country with the worst housing-market crash in the world return to such a place.

Fine Gael wisely advised us ‘to make sure that we don’t repeat the mistakes of the past’ and promised to “prevent that boom and bust cycle that bedevilled us for so many years”.

They told us they were different from Fianna Fail and that “there will be no return to the past where tax incentives for developers drove supply.”

The problem though is that rather than give tax breaks to developers to BUILD, they gave tax breaks to investors to BUY; 7 Year capital gains tax exemptions, introducing tax-free REITs, encouraging the use of tax free SPVs, QIAIFS and ICAVs.

OK but all that was done to ‘kick start’ the property market and the government have learned their lesson, right?

Wrong.

Successful lobbying by interest groups such as the Residential Landlords’ Association created the myth that landlords were leaving the market due to the the ‘stringent costs’ of running a rental property. Landlords it seems, are also allergic to paying taxes.

The government, believing the hype, immediately increased tax relief on mortgage interest meaning landlords could now deduct 80 per cent of the interest paid on borrowings on a rental property up from 75 per cent previously, with “full interest deductibility” to be restored for landlords by 2021.

So what can we expect in Budget 2018?

The Department of Finance recently held a consultation on the “tax and fiscal treatment of landlords” and our new Minister for Housing, Planning and Local Government, Eoghan Murphy has publicly stated that he thinks we need to “look at new measures to support and/or encourage landlords”.

Lessons learned? I don’t think so.

Property prices on track to surpass Celtic Tiger highs by 2020 (Irish Times)

Rollingnews

telegraph

Property prices have climbed to dangerous levels in several advanced economies, raising the risk of massive price falls if markets overheat, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Catherine Mann, the OECD’s chief economist, said the think-tank was monitoring “vulnerabilities in asset markets” closely amid predictions of higher inflation and the prospect of diverging monetary policies next year.

Fears of a ‘massive’ global property price fall amid ‘dangerous’ conditions and market slow-down (Daily Telegraph, January 2, 2017)

Meanwhile..

property
Good times.

Irish property prices to increase by at least 8% in 2017 (Fiona Reddin, Irish Times)

Thanks Louis Le Fronde