mick'sbike

Broadsheet nickbait (Part1 ).

Popular ‘sheet cartoonist/satirist Mick Flavin, writes:

I’m painfully aware you don’t normally do this, but my bike was stolen from Thorncastle St, Ringsend, Dublin 4 on Saturday afternoon last. It wasn’t massively expensive, nor did it have any sentimental value, but it was new enough, so it’d be great to get it back.

The Gardaí came fairly quickly when I called them. As I was giving them the details a man came forward who said he saw it being stolen at around 3pm but he didn’t want to get involved. He said that the lad who took it was around 40, bald and looked like a drug addict. He used bolt crops to remove the two locks.

I know I don’t have much hope of seeing it again, but I said I’d chance my arm sending it in here. It hasn’t turned up on DoneDeal or any of those sites yet. It’s a black DHS Contura hybrid (as above).

Anyone?

90390537ff

How much.

Buswells Hotel, Dublin

Fianna Fáil Spokesperson on Environment and Local Government, Barry Cowen TD (centre),  with Dublin City Councillors Deirdre Heney and Paul McAuliffe launching a new Fianna Fail policy document entitled ‘Generation Rent – A New Deal for Renters and Landlords’.

The document [at link below] sets out a number of new policy initiatives that “will help people struggling in the rental market, ensure quality accommodation and rent certainty”. Costings above.

Fight!

Fianna Fáil outlines new proposals to tackle rent crisis (Fianna Fail)

(Mark Stedman/Photocall ireland)

Meanwhile….

There are 100,000 people on housing waiting lists nationally, more than 42,000 in Dublin alone. This didn’t happen overnight. Lots of these people have been waiting on a home for ten years or more. Lack of affordable housing is not a ‘problem’ for government, they depend on it to drive up rent, property and land prices.

This government has figured out that to have a reasonable chance of reelection, it need only pander to its core base of the comfortable class, many of whom are landlords or have a vested interest in a booming property market (as do many TDs themselves). People on housing waiting lists don’t vote for Fine Gael.

Those that did vote Labour in the hope that their needs would be addressed have been rightly stuffed as Labour presided over an 82% cut to social housing provision budgets between 2007 and 2014. This chronic under-funding coupled with the more than €170 million euro of cuts to rent supplement since 2010 has created a whole new class of homeless people.

Homelessness Is The Plan (Ramhorne Republic)

Meanwhile…

The victims of this dysfunctional market include families forced to live with their in-laws or in temporary accommodation, and professionals who cannot afford to buy in metropolitan Dublin, and are pushed ever further out into the commuter belt. There is also a growing homelessness problem. In a country where home ownership is the norm, or at least the aspiration, for most families, housing could become an acute political problem ahead of a general election within about six months.

Irish recovery exposes acute housing shortage (Financial Times, behind paywall)

poll

dan

From top:  Polling patterns 2011-2015; Dan Boyle

Ignore the polls, Sinn Féin, the new parties and the ‘Megaphone Left’.

The next General Election will probably give us more of the same (minus Labour).

Dan Boyle writes:

One of staples of silly season journalism is predicting the outcome of the next general election, and from that the resulting government. They usually tend to be wildly wrong. So knowing the existence of the practice and the latitude that accompanies such prognostications, these are my somewhat modest predictions.

Between them Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will have a majority of votes and Dáil seats. A bare majority, a long way short of the 90% levels that were once achieved.

While we’ve become more socially liberal, we remain an economically conservative people. FG/FF support reflects that. Most of us want to believe that low taxation can deliver good public services. More worryingly, many of us are also prepared to accept growing inequality as a unavoidable consequence of economic advancement.

Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will be quite close to each other in terms of seats. It shouldn’t be a surprise if FF has the greater numbers.

Sinn Féin will make a further advance, perhaps an extra dozen seats. This will fit in with their masterplan but the progress will seem less fluent that it has been. There would be a couple of reasons for this. Opinion polls overstate SF support. Some say they will support the party for a shock effect, others want to but not enough to vote. The other factor is that the declared support seems to be stabilising, in Northern Ireland, as much as it is the Republic.

The SF masterplan will only see the party enter government if it is to be the majority of such a government. That won’t happen in 2016. Their hope is that it can happen from 2020 onwards. That would have to be subject to further analysis.

Labour seems to heading to a single figure representation in the next Dáil. The party’s lowest ever representation in Dáil Éireann. In many ways this is sad. As the longest established party in the country its decline should not be celebrated. For much of the history of the State, the party has offered the only political outlet for those who wanted to think and be otherwise, in this often all too stultifying country.

The political activist in me has less sympathy. Labour hugely over promised in 2011, believing a conceit that a window existed for it to become the largest party in the Dáil. This hubris has been what has led to its fate at the next general election.

Which brings us to the independents and ‘others’. That convenient catch all category that doesn’t tell us an awful lot. It’s the plague on all their houses vote, a vote that is itself split and split pretty evenly.

About half this vote is for newly emerging and non-traditional parties. Ten TDs would now carry these affiliations. This number is likely to double in a new Dáil. Renua and the Social Democrats will add to their numbers but not significantly, not having had a long enough lead in time. The next parliament will determine whether either party can be sustainable into the future.

There will be a Green Party presence again in the next Dáil. Whether this will be a plural presence will depend on circumstances.

Apparently the other left wings parties, who for convenience I will refer to as the Megaphone Left, are in discussion about presenting a united front. There is an obvious logic in this but it is unlikely to deliver many additional seats. Mick Barry in Cork North Central would benefit from such an arrangement. The other question is whether Clare Daly, Joan Collins, Mick Wallace or Seamus Healy will involve themselves in such an alliance.

Which brings us to the Maverick independents. I suspect that despite the larger vote, it will dissipate between a larger number of candidates and not deliver too many additional TDs.

Many independent TDs are and have been strong and excellent representatives. Too many though are blowhards, riding a zeitgeist of public disgust at a political system unwilling to reform itself.

As to what government we will have, it will involve Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. It may be a coalition. It may be a supply and confidence arrangement. There may be a rotating Taoiseach. The one certain outcome is that there will not be a natural coming together of these parties. That may take another five years

Dan Boyle is a former Green Party TD. Follow him on Twitter: @sendanboyle

Donie adds:

With the news the the UK is reopening its embassy in Iran, a bit of trivia your readers may find interesting…

Bobby Sands Street?

CONTEXT: Britain to reopen embassy in Tehran this weekend after four years (Guardian)

writers-cottage_190815_05 writers-cottage_190815_06 writers-cottage_190815_10 writers-cottage_190815_03writers-cottage_190815_07 writers-cottage_190815_08 writers-cottage_190815_04

A ‘cottage’ designed by Norwegian firm Jarmund/Vigsnæs Arkitekter in the back garden of a writer’s home in Oslo, elevated at one end to allow a narrow shaft of sunlight in over a neighbour’s hedge and fitted with a glass wall and desk to provide an uninterrupted view.

A dark critique of 1970s Communism set against the backdrop of an especially hard winter in Kyrksæterøra is imminent.

contemporist

grant

Today’s Irish Times cover story

This morning, political correspondent at the Irish Times Fiach Kelly reported that the €100 water grant will only be given to those who have paid their Irish Water bills – a move he suggested would be implemented from next year.

The grant is currently available to everyone who has registered with Irish Water even to those who have registered but who haven’t paid their bills.

Mr Kelly also reported that Labour’s Environment Minister Alan Kelly plans to introduce proposals to cut the cost of running Irish Water when the Dáil resumes after the summer break.

However, the Department of the Environment told Newstalk Breakfast there are no plans to change the water conservation grant with Irish Water and that Minster Alan Kelly has no plans to bring proposals concerning Irish Water before the Cabinet next month.

Also on Newstalk Breakfast, Fine Gael’s Transport Minister Paschal Donohoe told host Chris Donoghue appeared to confirm no changes to the conservation grant.

Then.

Niall O’Connor, of the Irish Independent, reported on Independent.ie that:

“The Labour Party was caught off guard by the developments last night, even though the [water conservation] grant is administered by Joan Burton’s department. Labour sources have this morning claimed that Finance Minister Michael Noonan “overruled” Environment Minister Alan Kelly in his previous efforts to link the grant to payment.”

Mr O’Connor spoke to Keelin Shanley, who is standing in for Seán O’Rourke, on RTÉ Radio One, in relation to the story.

Audrey Carville: “You’re saying that there are plans to pay the €100 to people who have paid their bills as opposed to everyone who has simply registered with Irish Water?”

Fiach Kelly: “Yes, the current situation is that everybody who registered with Irish Water by June 30 this year will be entitled to this €100 grant and from the Department of Social Protection. That will begin to be distributed to people from next month on. So around 70 per cent of people who are eligible to register with Irish Water have done so, which means 70 per cent of people are entitled to get that €100. The problem is that you can get that €100, even if you haven’t paid your water charges bill. We’ve seen, with the compliance figures which show that around 43 per cent of homes have paid their water charges – there’s a discrepancy between the people who have registered and the people who have actually paid. So what the Government is looking at now is narrowing that gap, I suppose, and making sure that in order to get your €100 you have to prove you paid your bill. Now it’s too early for them to make the change this year, in respect of 2015, there’s no timeframe on it yet but it looks like it will be done in the future, possibly as early as next year. It’s one of a number of changes that is being looked at after the Eurostat decision to say that Irish Water can’t be classified as off Government balance sheet.

Another change is that the existing water charges cap – so it’s €206 for a family, €106 for a single adult household. They drop by €100 when you get your grant. They might apply for as much as a decade now. It was initially envisaged that they would apply until the end of 2018 with a water charges cap, another cap to be decided from 2019 but those existing caps could exist for a decade. Basically what’s happened with the Eurostat decision, it’s telling the Government that they think that it’s not eligible to be off Government balance sheet, it’s actually freed the Government up now to decide that this may be considered as a longer-term project, something that could be stretched out over a decade. And it also must be seen, I suppose, in the context of the general election where Fine Gael and Labour are trying to settle a position on this thorny issue before they go to the people in the coming months.”

Carville: “In relation to the €100 payment to the people who have paid their bills, why are they reconsidering that? Are they getting a lot of stick from Fine Gael backbench TDs?”

Kelly: “They’re getting a lot of stick across the political spectrum from Fine Gael TDs and other TDs as well. The reason is because they are now facing a scenario where a minority of people have paid their bills, so the people who are in compliance with Irish Water and the water charges are in the minority, 43%. So they risk alienating that core of people who are going along with this plan. So, in order, I suppose, to bring up that compliance rate and make sure the people who have paid are happy to kind of tighten the net on these people who are entitled to their €100 but might not have paid their bills..”

Carville: “But would Labour agree to this?”

Kelly: “My understanding is that this is being discussed by both parties at the top of Government and there is broad agreement on the outline on how this will proceed but the details have yet to be hammered out. I understand that Alan Kelly will bring additional measures, including proposals about reducing the cost of running Irish Water, to Cabinet, after the summer break…”

On Newstalk….

FG Minister Paschal Donohoe: “There’s nothing at all being written. The Department of Social Protection has made it very clear that the structures that we have in place now will stay in place. I think it is reasonable to say, given all the focus we have had in setting up a utility like Irish Water, to look at what measures can we take, what further work can be done, to improve its efficiency and ensure it’s better able to meet the needs of providing safe and secure water for Ireland.”

Chris Donoghue: “Minister that is absolute spin. These aren’t efficiencies, these aren’t measures, these are U-turns.”

Donohoe: “But what you’re talking about there Chris is…”

Donoghue: “What happened to metering? What happened to pay-per-use?”

Donohoe: “Chris. What you’re talking about here is speculation in relation to decisions and proposals that have not even been brought to Cabinet. It is absolutely necessary that, as a Government, we keep all measures in relation to Irish Water under review and, as I have said, the structures that are in place there now in relation to charging, and in relation to the conservation fee are in place and will be in place across this year.”

Donoghue: “Are you embarrassed by yourself – six weeks ago, describing Irish Water as a solid start?”

Donohoe: “Well what I was doing there was referring to the compliance rate, the number of people who registered…”

Donoghue: “43 per cent you said was solid.”

Donohoe: “And I also acknowledge that that is a figure that has to grow and will grow in the future. We want to see the compliance rates in Irish Water as high as they can be, to ensure that the funding in place is in place to meet the needs that our water system has. And that figure does have to grow and Irish Water will be working and finding ways to increase that in the years to come.”

Donoghue: “So are you embarrassed by yourself, describing it as a solid start?”

Donohoe: “I’m not. I’ve always acknowledged and I will do so again, that we did make, and mistakes were made in how we set up a utility of the scale of Irish Water and it’s incumbent on us to fix those. That’s what we have done in the past in terms of bringing certainty to customers about what the charging structure for Irish Water will be and we have to continue with that work because of the need that there is in place for a company like Irish Water to be able to operate efficiently…”

On Today With Seán O’Rourke:

Irish Independent’s Niall O’Connor: “I think Labour are not best pleased this morning that you have another situation, another potential good news story that they feel Fine Gael are trying to claim as their own. You know, they’ve certainly felt that in the past, politically, that any potential good story, Fine Gael are trying to steal their thunder…”

Listen back to Morning Ireland here

Listen back to Newstalk Breakfast here

Listen back to Today With Seán O’Rourke here

Irish Water: Coalition to link €100 grant with bill payment (Fiach Kelly, Irish Times)

No plans to change water conservation grant, says Department of Environment (Newstalk)

Labour sources: Noonan ‘overruled’ Kelly’s previous efforts to link water grant to payment (Niall O’Connor, Independent.ie)

Broadsheet.ie