Tag Archives: CSO

Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan at a Covid-19 press briefing tonight

This evening.

Paul Cullen, of The Irish Times, asked Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan about the CSO’s mortality report published earlier today.

They had this exchange:

Paul Cullen: “The other thing I noticed, from reading through that report from the CSO. Obviously our peak of deaths occurred in April of this year.”

Tony Holohan: “Uh-hum.”

Cullen: “The peak of deaths in 2017 and 2018 occurred in January. They’re actually the same size, the whole three peaks. Would you draw any conclusions from that? In fact, the one in 2018 is slightly higher than the one this year.”

Holohan: “The one in?”

Cullen: “2018 is just marginally higher than the one…I mean there was a lockdown but…”

Holohan: “Pardon me?”

Cullen: “There was obviously a lockdown in April.”

Holohan: “Yeah, there’s always a peak in mortality in the winter time. We’re well used to seeing that. And it occurs in every, every developed country and we’ve seen these reports through the European mechanism which is the European Mortality Monitoring Mechanism, the Euromomo which I’m sure you’re well familiar with, and established the same sort of pattern. I haven’t had a chance today to study the CSO, I believe they just published that today and I simply haven’t had a chance to study the detail of that today so I’ll wait to study that before I comment on your specific question.”

Earlier:

The monthly recorded death notices for October 2019 to September 2020 compared with CSO mortality figures for the same period for the years 2014 to 2019

This afternoon.

On RTÉ Radio One’s News at One.

Central Statistics Office statistician John Flanagan spoke to Bryan Dobson about a report by the CSO, involving an analysis of death notices on RIP.ie, which shows that excess mortality for between March and September 2020 is estimated to be between 876 and 1,192 deaths.

Bryan Dobson: “When you say there has been, more, excess mortality in the order of 1,192, what are we talking about? What are you comparing it with?”

John Flanagan: “Good afternoon, Bryan, so excess mortality is a measure of the number of people who have died over and above the number we would have expected to die in the absence of the pandemic. So, for example, in 2020, we would have expected around 2,500 deaths but we observed 3,500.”

Dobson: “So in relation to Covid then, it’s quite clear that Covid has, or well, it’s certainly, it’s indicated by these figures that Covid has contributed to an increase in deaths since the pandemic began earlier this year?”

Flanagan: “Yes, absolutely. So essentially, in a sentence, what you could say is between 900 and 1,200 people are dead who would otherwise have been alive at the beginning of October 2020.”

Dobson: “But that is still below the official figure from the Department of Health for Covid-related deaths, I think which is in excess of 1,900. So how is that explained?”

Flanagan: “So in certain instances there have been some accelerated deaths, so but, if you were to take it on of people who have died of Covid-19 that there is a spectrum of people who are otherwise healthy and people who are gravely ill, so essentially we are seeing, we can state that the 1,800 is effectively capturing the number of people who have died of Covid-19.”

Dobson: “There’s also another pattern which you observed and that is that many of these excess deaths are concentrated in the earlier part of the period and I suppose when the pandemic was at its height and have, well, largely tailed off into the month of September?”

Flanagan: “That’s right, yeah. So we’ve seen the death rate, the numbers of deaths return to normal, as what we would have expected to see.”

Dobson: “So for the month of September, is there any excess mortality, any indication that Covid has caused additional deaths?”

Flanagan: “No, nothing really out of the ordinary.”

Dobson: “So what lessons then do you draw from this in relation to how the pandemic is being understood?”

Flanagan: “Well, you know, all we can really discuss on the basis of this analysis is what we’ve found based on death notices. I can’t, I’m not really sure if I’ve answered your question there Bryan.”

Dobson: “Right. Maybe that’s for others to give some consideration to.”

Flanagan: “I think so. I think so.”

Dobson: “OK, well, we’ll leave it there…”

Anyone?

Listen back in full here

From the Central Statistics Office’s Residential Property Price Index June 2019 report (click to enlarge)

The Central Statistics Office reports:

Residential property prices increased by 2.0% nationally in the year to June. This compares with an increase of 2.6% in the year to May and an increase of 11.9% in the twelve months to June 2018.

In Dublin, residential property prices rose by 0.1% in the year to June, with house prices unchanged and apartments rising by 0.1%. The highest house price growth in Dublin was in South Dublin at 3.6%, while Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown saw a decline of 4.0%.

Residential property prices in Ireland excluding Dublin were 3.9% higher in the year to June, with house prices up by 3.6% and apartments by 6.1%.

The region outside of Dublin that saw the largest rise in house prices was the Border at 14.7%, while the Mid-East recorded a decline of 0.1%.

Property prices nationally have increased by 83.0% from their trough in early 2013. Dublin residential property prices have risen 92.7% from their February 2012 low, whilst residential property prices in the Rest of Ireland are 81.1% higher than at the trough, which was in May 2013.

Residential property prices rise by 2.0% in the year to June (CSO)

Related: Property price growth cools to six-year low of 2% (The Irish Times)

Top pic: Rollingnews

 

Minister for Housing Eoghan Murphy

Summary of new report on ‘new dwelling completions’ from the Central Statistics Office; tweet from Taoiseach Leo Varadkar

This morning.

New figures from the Central Statistics Office state there were 4,275 “new dwelling completions” in the first quarter of this year.

According to the CSO the figure “is based on the number of domestic dwellings connected by the ESB Network to the electricity supply and may not accord precisely with Local Authority or Eircode Routing Key boundaries”.

Over the same period last year, there were 3,470 such completions.

Meanwhile…

And…

Daft.ie’s report from earlier this week on the first quarter of this year and the rental market stated:

“…the level of supply needed for rents to not change is about 13,000 per quarter, or 1,000 per week. Currently, the Dublin market is getting half that – about 500 per week.

“To close that gap, Dublin needs to build tens of thousands more rental homes. How many depends on how frequently these change tenants.

“Suppose the average tenancy last three years, which is somewhat shorter than is currently the case (and thus lowering the total number of homes needed).

“In that case, Dublin would need build an extra 500 rental homes to come on the market each week for those full three years, to close the gap between the 500 that are coming on and the 500 that are needed.

“That’s almost 80,000 rental homes that Dublin needs to build, as soon as possible.”

Read the CSO report in full here

From the Central Statistics Office

This morning.

The Central Statistics Office published its results from a survey on income and living conditions in Ireland in 2017.

It found the mean annual household disposable income in 2017 was €48,476 which represents a 4.7% increase on the 2016 figure of €46,310.

It also reported:

The at risk of poverty rate, which is the share of persons whose equivalised income was less than 60% of the national median equivalised income, was 15.7% compared with 16.2% in 2016. This change is not statistically significant.

Enforced deprivation is defined as not being able to afford two or more deprivation indicators; such as keeping the home adequately warm or buying presents for family/friends at least once a year. The percentage of people considered to be experiencing enforced deprivation was 18.8%, down from 21.0% in 2016; this is a statistically significant change.

The most common types of deprivation experienced by Irish households were an inability to afford to replace worn out furniture (20.4%), to afford to have family or friends for a drink or a meal once a month (13.9%) and to afford a morning, afternoon or evening out in the last fortnight (13.2%).

Finally, the consistent poverty rate which includes those persons who are defined as being both at risk of poverty and who are also experiencing enforced deprivation, was 6.7%. This is also a statistically significant change on the 2016 figure of 8.2%.

Read the report in full here

This morning.

The Central Statistics Office announces:

Ireland exported €123 billion of goods in 2017 and imported €79 billion. We exported €17 billion more to the USA than we imported in 2017.

The UK was our largest import partner in 2017 at €18.8 billion and was also our largest partner for both exports (€4.6 bn) and imports (€3.7bn) of food and drinks.

In total, Ireland exported €12.3 billion and imported €7.7 billion of food and drinks in 2017.

We imported 20kg of bananas, 13kg of apples, 10kg of onions and 7kg of carrots for every person in Ireland.

Ireland’s trade in goods in 2017 (CSO)

Boarded up homes on Connaught St, Phibsboro earlier this year

You may recall how the Census 2016 figures which showed 183,312 vacant houses in Ireland – excluding vacant holiday homes.

And how Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said last week that:

“…the numbers [of houses] that are really vacant are actually much smaller than any of the figures show.

And the Irish Times reporting last week:

“… the real number of unoccupied houses and apartments might only be a tiny fraction of that, if the results of an investigation carried out by Fingal County Council are replicated elsewhere.

Its study, which involved council officials visiting houses listed as vacant, found that only a very small number of houses in the north county Dublin authority area (perhaps only 50 or 60) were genuinely unoccupied, compared with the 3,000 figure stated for Fingal in the official census returns.”

Rob Kitchin, on his Ireland After Nama blog, has looked at this story, acknowledging he couldn’t locate the Fingal County Council report or press release.

Mr Kitchin is a Professor of Human Geography and Director of the National Institute of Regional and Spatial Analysis at the National University of Maynooth

He writes:

“What is reported in the IT is:

‘The council initially conducted a desktop exercise on the 3,000 supposedly vacant properties. When commercial properties, as well as those in construction or in the planning process, were eliminated the figure fell to 361 properties.’  They then visited 74 of the 361 homes to check on occupancy, though it’s not stated how those 74 were sampled. 

Of those 74 visited, they discovered that only 13 were actually vacant. In other words, rather than having a vacancy rate of 5% (as reported in the 2016 census – 4,944 vacant units + 289 holiday homes), they have a rate of about 1% – far below what might be an expected base vacancy level of 6% (there are always some units vacant due to selling, gaps between renting, working temporarily elsewhere, people in healthcare, etc.). 

I have no doubt in the 18 months since the census in April 2016 properties that were vacant will have been occupied, however it seems unlikely that vacancy is so far below base vacancy, which is what the IT piece seems to be suggesting.

“In terms of method it is unlikely that the CSO shared the individual addresses of vacant properties as identified in the census with Fingal.

“But if they were working from census data then it does not include commercial properties, nor properties under-construction, or in the planning process, or derelict.

“So removing those properties from census counts would make no sense – they were never counted by the CSO. Indeed, in a rebuttal story in the Irish Times, the CSO stand over their data and method – which is to send enumerators to every property in the country, to visit upwards of ten times if they fail to get an answer, and to talk to neighbours to try and ascertain the use status.

“…In my view, there needs to be a branch-and-root review of property data in Ireland.

“This needs to start with asking the question: what data do we need to generate to best understand planning, housing, commercial property, infrastructure need, etc?

“…With good quality data that people trust we might avoid different agencies producing wildly estimates of some element of housing or commercial property, such as vacancy rates, and we would greatly aid our planning and economic development.

“However, if we carry on as we are, we’re going to continue to fly half-blind and only have a partial or flawed understanding of present conditions and we are going to replicate mistakes of the past.”

We still need better property data (Rob Kitchin, Ireland After Nama)

Thanks Mel Reynolds

The Central Statistics Office writes:

In the year to July, residential property prices at national level increased by 12.3%. This compares with an increase of 11.5% in the year to June and an increase of 7.1% in the twelve months to July 2016.

In Dublin, residential property prices increased by 12.7% in the year to July. Dublin house prices increased 12.6%. Apartments in Dublin increased 12.0% in the same period. The highest house price growth was in Dublin City, at 13.6%. In contrast, the lowest growth was in Fingal, with house prices rising 7.4%.

Residential property prices in the Rest of Ireland (i.e. excluding Dublin) were 11.7% higher in the year to July. House prices in the Rest of Ireland increased 11.8% over the period. The West region showed the greatest price growth, with house prices increasing 15.8%.  The Mid-West region showed the least price growth, with house prices increasing 8.2%. Apartment prices in the Rest of Ireland increased 13.7% in the same period.

Residential Property Price Index July 2017 (CSO)

This morning.

The Central Statistics Office released new figures in relation to the movement of the population within Ireland.

It reports:

In April 2016, 44% of the State’s total urban population lived in Dublin, while 11% lived in CorkSligo was the county with the biggest change in the rate of urbanisation, increasing from 37% to 40% over the five years.  Forty-one towns had a population of 10,000 or more, with 27 in Leinster, nine in Munster, three in Connacht and two in the three Ulster counties.  62.7% of the population lived in urban areas in April 2016.

37.3% of the population lived in rural areas in April 2016.  The largest rural population increase was in County Cork with 6,946 persons followed by Kildare which saw its rural population increase by 4,025 persons.

Drogheda, with a population of 40,956 (up 6.2% since April 2011) remained the largest town in Ireland.  Swords (39,248) and Dundalk (39,004) complete the top three.  Ennis (25,276 persons) remained the largest town in Munster.

Sligo with 19,199 persons was Connacht’s largest town, while Letterkenny (19,274 persons) was the largest town in the three Ulster counties.  The latter three towns experienced a slight decline in population since April 2011.

263,551 usual residents (aged one year and over) moved in the year up to April 2016, down 3.5% on the 2011 figure of 273,239.  Of these, 94,182 moved in Dublin, with 18,716 moving out of the county.  The top destinations were Kildare, Meath and Wicklow.  The number of households moving in the year up to April 2016 fell by 4% to 110,204.

Read the full report here

Screen Shot 2017-04-19 at 13.25.09Screen Shot 2017-04-19 at 13.26.46

From the Central Statistics Office…

In the year to February, residential property prices at national level increased by 10.7%. This compares with an increase of 8.1% in the year to January and an increase of 5.4% in the twelve months to February 2016.

In Dublin, residential property prices increased by 8.3% in the year to February. Dublin house prices increased 8.1%. Whereas apartments increased 9.1% in the same period. The highest house price growth was in Dublin City, at 9.2%. In contrast, the lowest growth was in Fingal, with house prices rising just 3.7%.

Residential property prices in the Rest of Ireland (i.e. excluding Dublin) were 13.2% higher in the year to February. House prices in the Rest of Ireland increased 13.1% over the period. The West region showed the greatest price growth, with house prices increasing 19.8%.  In contrast, the Mid-East region showed the least price growth, with house prices increasing 9.3%. Apartment prices in the Rest of Ireland increased 13.9% in the same period.

Residential Property Price Index February 2017 (CSO)

Flipping Hell