Tag Archives: death toll

Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan at a Covid-19 press briefing tonight

This evening.

Paul Cullen, of The Irish Times, asked Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan about the CSO’s mortality report published earlier today.

They had this exchange:

Paul Cullen: “The other thing I noticed, from reading through that report from the CSO. Obviously our peak of deaths occurred in April of this year.”

Tony Holohan: “Uh-hum.”

Cullen: “The peak of deaths in 2017 and 2018 occurred in January. They’re actually the same size, the whole three peaks. Would you draw any conclusions from that? In fact, the one in 2018 is slightly higher than the one this year.”

Holohan: “The one in?”

Cullen: “2018 is just marginally higher than the one…I mean there was a lockdown but…”

Holohan: “Pardon me?”

Cullen: “There was obviously a lockdown in April.”

Holohan: “Yeah, there’s always a peak in mortality in the winter time. We’re well used to seeing that. And it occurs in every, every developed country and we’ve seen these reports through the European mechanism which is the European Mortality Monitoring Mechanism, the Euromomo which I’m sure you’re well familiar with, and established the same sort of pattern. I haven’t had a chance today to study the CSO, I believe they just published that today and I simply haven’t had a chance to study the detail of that today so I’ll wait to study that before I comment on your specific question.”

Earlier:

The monthly recorded death notices for October 2019 to September 2020 compared with CSO mortality figures for the same period for the years 2014 to 2019

This afternoon.

On RTÉ Radio One’s News at One.

Central Statistics Office statistician John Flanagan spoke to Bryan Dobson about a report by the CSO, involving an analysis of death notices on RIP.ie, which shows that excess mortality for between March and September 2020 is estimated to be between 876 and 1,192 deaths.

Bryan Dobson: “When you say there has been, more, excess mortality in the order of 1,192, what are we talking about? What are you comparing it with?”

John Flanagan: “Good afternoon, Bryan, so excess mortality is a measure of the number of people who have died over and above the number we would have expected to die in the absence of the pandemic. So, for example, in 2020, we would have expected around 2,500 deaths but we observed 3,500.”

Dobson: “So in relation to Covid then, it’s quite clear that Covid has, or well, it’s certainly, it’s indicated by these figures that Covid has contributed to an increase in deaths since the pandemic began earlier this year?”

Flanagan: “Yes, absolutely. So essentially, in a sentence, what you could say is between 900 and 1,200 people are dead who would otherwise have been alive at the beginning of October 2020.”

Dobson: “But that is still below the official figure from the Department of Health for Covid-related deaths, I think which is in excess of 1,900. So how is that explained?”

Flanagan: “So in certain instances there have been some accelerated deaths, so but, if you were to take it on of people who have died of Covid-19 that there is a spectrum of people who are otherwise healthy and people who are gravely ill, so essentially we are seeing, we can state that the 1,800 is effectively capturing the number of people who have died of Covid-19.”

Dobson: “There’s also another pattern which you observed and that is that many of these excess deaths are concentrated in the earlier part of the period and I suppose when the pandemic was at its height and have, well, largely tailed off into the month of September?”

Flanagan: “That’s right, yeah. So we’ve seen the death rate, the numbers of deaths return to normal, as what we would have expected to see.”

Dobson: “So for the month of September, is there any excess mortality, any indication that Covid has caused additional deaths?”

Flanagan: “No, nothing really out of the ordinary.”

Dobson: “So what lessons then do you draw from this in relation to how the pandemic is being understood?”

Flanagan: “Well, you know, all we can really discuss on the basis of this analysis is what we’ve found based on death notices. I can’t, I’m not really sure if I’ve answered your question there Bryan.”

Dobson: “Right. Maybe that’s for others to give some consideration to.”

Flanagan: “I think so. I think so.”

Dobson: “OK, well, we’ll leave it there…”

Anyone?

Listen back in full here

Report from the The Health Protection Surveillance Centre to NPHET on COVID-19 cases and deaths in Ireland

Gavin T writes:

The most recent HSE Covid-19 report might put things into perspective.

It reveals the median age of all deaths was 84 and of the 1,777  deaths, 1,677 had underlying conditions…

So, the number of deaths with no underlying conditions in Ireland was…100 people…

Um.

Epidemology of COVID-19 Cases in ireland (HPSC)

The official death toll (top) is clear.

But how many people really died of Covid-19?

Graham Neary writes:

I’ve gone deep into the mortality numbers for Ireland and Covid-19. This is what I’ve learned.

The death toll in Ireland from Covid-19 is officially 1,773. But this includes people who died from other things and people who were presumed to have it.

Analysts for the Irish government counted death notices online and reckoned there were between 851 and 1290 excess deaths by mid-June, with the middle estimate being 1,072.

Instead of using online death notices, I have sought out and gained access to the latest official death registration data, as of the end of July 2020 (above).

And here (above) are all of the monthly results from January to May for each year, ordered from largest to smallest. April 2020 and May 2020 are in red.

Here (above) are the cumulative deaths from January to May for each year

Two big oversights are:

1) Not all deaths for 2020 are registered yet. Officially you have three months to register a death, but I can see from previous snapshots that deaths continue to be registered after three months.

2) The population is growing.

My solutions:

1) I use differences between the end-June database and the end-July database to estimate likely future growth of 2020 numbers for Jan to May, through the end of October.

2) I divide all numbers by the population for each year, to get the monthly mortality rates.

Results:

I estimate that April 2020 was about as dangerous as Jan 2018 and Jan 2017 (flu seasons).

And May 2020 was about as dangerous as any other April or May.

So far, 2020 looks like it has been less dangerous than 2016, 2017 and 2018, based on deaths until May.

It is only looking more dangerous than 2017 and 2019.

What makes April 2020 different? It’s certainly shaping up to have been more dangerous than other Aprils.

And it was: the health system was shut down for many treatments, inpatients were asked to leave early, and many were too scared to attend A&E or their GP.

For England, the ONS estimated 16,000 non-Covid excess deaths were caused by lockdown (.0062 deaths per 1000 people per day).

The best I can do for an initial estimate of deaths in Ireland caused by lockdown is to translate this ONS figure across.

Resulting estimate: 916 deaths caused by Lockdown in Ireland in April 2020.

This wouldn’t leave very many excess deaths available for Covid and other causes

I acknowledge there are large gaps in my analysis. Detailed research (and the passing of time) will provide in-depth explanations for many of the above issues. However, I don’t see why my estimates would not be in the “ballpark” of truth. Please share with me your corrections.

My conclusions:

1) data does not yet support the claim that an extremely deadly virus (e.g. more dangerous than flu) was present and active in Ireland from March 2020.

2) deaths caused immediately by lockdown might have been significantly higher than deaths caused by the virus.

Previously: Counting The Dead

The Reporting Of Deaths

Former World Health Organisation (WHO) chief Professor Karol Sikora

This afternoon.

Former World Health Organisation (WHO) chief Professor Karol Sikora has claimed many health practitioners in Britain have been putting Covid-19 down as the cause of death if there has been “any hint” that the virus played a part.

The NHS has reported that over 41,000 people have died in hospitals due to the pandemic and Prof Sikora said this figure could in fact be much less as many are marking it down without proof it was the main cause.

He said the UK’s system of recording deaths caused by Covid-19 was different to places such as Germany. In Germany Covid-19 can only be recorded as the cause of death when the end-of-life care team certifies that this was the case.

“It could end up that more people have died because of lack of medical care directly caused by the unavailability of it, because its facilities have been taken over for Covid.

“If we look at the numbers, how many people have really died from Covid that wouldn’t be dead at the end of the year?

“The numbers vary enormously. The current ONS data suggests 60,000 people have died from Covid. I’m sure that’s not really the case, it’s because of the counting.”

Ireland, anyone?

Coronavirus deaths ‘may be less than half official toll – as docs wrongly mark certificates’, says ex-WHO chief (The Sun)

Prof Karol Sikora: Covid-19 death toll may be less than half of what has been recorded (Telegraph)

Pic: Medscape

 

Screen Shot 2014-08-12 at 11.52.30

Al Jazeera reports:

The Ebola virus has killed 1,013 people and infected another 1,848 across West African nations, latest World Health Organisation data shows.

The fatalities include 52 deaths recorded between August 7-9 in three countries at the centre of the epidemic – Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, according to data released late on Monday.

…

A Spanish priest named Miguel Pajares, 75, the first European infected by a strain of the virus died in hospital in Madrid, a spokeswoman for the city’s health authorities said on Tuesday.

Previously: Ebola Death Toll: 603

Ebola death toll hits 1,000 mark (Al Jazeera)

Ebola outbreak: Liberia says experimental drug on the way from US (The Guardian)

Pic: Macleans

Screen Shot 2014-07-15 at 12.58.59

A health worker with Médecins Sans Frontières/Doctors Without Borders puts on protective gear at an Ebola isolation ward inside the Donka Hospital in Conakry, Guinea

The death toll from an Ebola outbreak in West Africa has spiked to 603 since February, with at least 68 deaths reported in the last week alone, the World Health Organisation said on Tuesday.

Sierra Leone recorded the highest number of deaths, which include confirmed, probable and suspect cases of Ebola, with 52. Liberia reported 13 and Guinea 3, according to the WHO figures for July 8-12.

WHO said there were 85 new cases, highlighting continued high levels of transmission, especially in Liberia and Sierra Leone, despite local and international efforts to halt the disease.

Death toll from West Africa Ebola outbreak jumps to 603 – WHO (Reuters, Africa)

Pic: AFP Africa