Fionnan Sheahan, of The Irish Independent
Further to popular demand and following the posting of details yesterday of Montrose-based shambolic soothsaying…
…below are the General Election predictions of Fionnan Sheahan, of the Irish Independent.
These were published on January 15, 16, and 17, 2020. As of February 3, 2020, the election polls had shown that, following six national election polls, the combined Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael vote was less than 44%,while Sinn Féin was polling more than twice its local election vote in 2019.
Cork East
Mr Sheahan said:
“Sinn Féin’s Pat Buckley is on the backfoot from Fianna Fáil golden boy James O’Connor and Fine Gael’s Pa O’Driscoll. After a strong local elections showing, Independent Mary Linehan-Foley also fancies her chances. Fine Gael’s David Stanton and Fianna Fáil’s Kevin O’Keeffe are in before a vote is cast, while Labour’s Seán Sherlock never takes anything for granted.”
The result: Mr Buckley topped the poll and was elected on the first count with 12,587 votes, 23.1% of the first preference votes.
Labour’s Seán Sherlock took the second seat, Fine Gael’s David Stanton took the third and Fianna Fáil’s took the fourth seat – all on the eighth count.
Cork South West
Mr Sheahan said:
“Fine Gael should be going for two seats. Instead, the party is worried about holding one. The new ticket of Tim Lombard and Karen Coakley faces a baptism of fire. Fianna Fáil’s Margaret Murphy O’Mahony is joined late in the day by poll-topping councillor Christopher O’Sullivan as the party sniffs Blue blood in Michael Collins country. The other Michael Collins, the sitting Independent TD, will be worried about getting caught in the crossfire.”
The result: Independent Michael Collins took the first seat after the first count with 26.4% of the first-preference votes; Fianna Fáil’s Christopher O’Sullivan took the second and Social Democrats Holly Cairns took the third, both after the eighth count.
Dublin Central
Mr Sheahan said:
“An extra seat is up for grabs with Fianna Fáil’s Mary Fitzpatrick whopping local elections putting her on track in ‘Bertie-land’, with the Green Party’s Neasa Hourigan also in contention. Fine Gael’s Paschal Donohoe is solid, but won’t bring in his running mate Deirdre Duffy. Sinn Féin leader Mary-Lou McDonald is also fine.
The doubt over Independent Maureen O’Sullivan’s intentions – as of now she’s running – meaning her seat is being targeted by Social Democrat Garry Gannon and Labour’s Joe Costello.”
The result: Mary Lou McDonald topped the poll and was elected on the first count with 11,223 votes, 35.7% of the first preference votes.
Green Party’s Neasa Hourigan took the second seat, Fine Gael’s Paschal Donohoe the third and Social Democrats’ Gary Gannon took the fourth, all on the ninth count.
Dublin Rathdown
Mr Sheahan said: “All eyes are on Independent minister Shane Ross, the most coveted scalp of them all. FG’s Neale Richmond, FF’s Shay Brennan and Labour’s Lettie McCarthy are the war party circling him as he seeks refuge in Stepaside Garda Station.
FG minister Josepha Madigan and Green Catherine Martin are safe as houses in the most volatile constituency in the country.”
The result: The Green Party’s Catherine Martin took the first seat after the fifth count, Fine Gael’s Neale Richmond took the second and Fine Gael’s Josepha Madigan took the third, both after the eighth count.
Dun Laoghaire
Mr Sheahan said
“FG’s Mary Mitchell-O’Connor is safe but the party is already down retiring TD Seán Barrett and the ditched Maria Bailey. FG is desperately trying to salvage a disaster with Jennifer Carroll-MacNeill.
Green Ossian Smyth looks unstoppable and also poses a threat to the support of Solidarity’s Richard Boyd-Barrett.
FF’s Mary Hanafin has ministerial potential advantage over her running mate Cormac Devlin in a place where the voters like to elect ministers.”
The result: Richard Boyd Barrett topped the poll and took the second seat with 15.5% of the first-preference votes while Green Party’s Ossian Smyth took the first seat, after securing 14.9% of the first-preference votes. Fine Gael’s Jennifer Carroll Macneill took the third and Fianna Fáil’s Cormac Devlin took the fourth, both after the eighth count.
Kildare North
Mr Sheahan said:
“FF’s dynamic duo of Frank O’Rourke and James Lawless were the party’s biggest success in 2016. They are dug in hard awaiting the onslaught from Labour’s Emmet Stagg and Green Vincent P Martin. FG’s Bernard Durkan and Soc Dem Catherine Murphy are again dependable.”
The result: Sinn Féin’s Réada Cronin took the second seat on count 6 after winning 17.1% of the first preference votes.
Catherine Murphy, of the Social Democrats, topped the poll with 11,008 votes and 19.3% of the first preference votes. Fine Gael’s Bernard Durkan took the third seat and Fianna Fáil’s James Lawless the fourth.
Limerick County
Mr Sheahan said:
“The climate is changing all over the world, but there are no changing winds in west Limerick. The rivalry between Fine Gael Minister Patrick O’Donovan and fellow TD Tom Neville keeps both on their toes. Fianna Fáil’s Niall Collins is as sure as anything. So far, nobody else seems bothered to even put up a proper challenge.”
Fine Gael’s Patrick O’Donovan took the first seat, Fianna Fáil’s Niall Collins took the second and Independent Richard O’Donoghue took the third.
Meath East
Mr Sheahan said:
“Anything other than a return of the sitting trio, FG ministers Regina Doherty and Helen McEntee and FF ministerial contender Thomas Byrne, will be a massive shock. But there’ll still be some craic between the traditional Blueshirt tribe of McEntee and new Fine Gael camp of Doherty along the way.”
The result: Sinn Féin’s Darren O’Rourke topped the poll, taking 24.4% of the first preference votes. He was elected on the second count.
Fine Gael’s Helen McEntee took the second seat and Fianna Fáil’s Thomas Byrne the third, both on the seventh count. Regina Doherty was eliminated on the sixth count.
Tipperary
Mr Sheahan said:
“The Premier County is technically the most independently-minded part of the country with three non-party TDs, Michael Lowry, Mattie McGrath and Seamus Healy. Fine Gael figure Healy is the weakest. The party’s line up of Garret Ahearn and Mary Newman Julian is untested though. Losing two seats and ending up with no TD last time out was a calamity Fine Gael dare not even think of repeating. Fianna Fáil’s Jackie Cahill, Labour’s Alan Kelly and Lowry will get across handily and McGrath should be there too.”
The result: Sinn Féin’s Martin Browne took the third seat when he was elected on the eighth count. He won 12.2% of the first preference votes (the second highest figure).
Independent Michael Lowry was elected on the first count with 18.1% of the first preference votes while Independent Mattie McGrath took the second seat on the eighth count after winning 11.4% of the first preference votes.
Labour’s Alan Kelly took the fourth seat and Fianna Fáil’s Jackie Cahill the fifth.
Carlow-Kilkenny
Mr Sheahan said:
“Whisper it softly but FF could go back to three seats here at FG’s expense.
Everything would need to go their way but FF’s John McGuinness in Kilkenny city, Bobby Aylward in the county and Jennifer Murnane O’Connor can capitalise on a swing.
Of course, Aylward also has to watch out for Murnane O’Connor taking him out if they fall short and are left with two. FG minister John Paul Phelan faces a task to manage the votes of Pat Deering and Patrick O’Neill to hold two seats steady.
SF’s Kathleen Funchion is deep in the relegation zone with Green Malcolm Noonan poised to strike.”
The result: Sinn Féin’s Kathleen Funchion topped the poll and was elected on the first count with 17,493 votes, 23.8% of the first preference votes.
Fianna Fáil’s John McGuinness took the second seat on the sixth count; Fine Gael’s John Paul Phelan took the third on the eighth count; Fianna Fáil’s Jennifer Murnane O’Connor took the fourth seat, also on the eighth count; and Malcolm Noonan, of the Green Party, took the fifth seat on the tenth count.
Dublin Fingal















