Tag Archives: Polls

Except those last few times.

This afternoon.

The final poll of polls as America goes to the, er, polls.

The tally puts Democrat candidate Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8.1 percentage points.

A Donald Trump victory would be the “biggest polling miss of the 21st century“, according to one leading US bookmaker.


US election 2020 live results: Donald Trump takes on Joe Biden in race for White House (The Guardian)


It has begun.

Tabulations of the state of the main parties following six national opinion polls. Tables include estimates of how these votes would translate into seats.

After six national polls since the General Election was called.

How do things stand?

Via RTE, Michael Marsh, a Professor of Comparative Political Behaviour and a Fellow of Trinity College,  writes:

The table above shows where these trends leave the parties at present, with Fianna Fáil marginally ahead of Sinn Féin, 23.5% to 22.5%, and Fine Gael in third place with 20%. Green lead the rest with 8.5%.

It is striking that the combined Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael vote is less than 44%, the lowest we have seen at any point since polling began, and a long way below the figure of 65% seen in 2017.

Sinn Féin’s rise is also remarkable, well up on its polling before Christmas and more than twice its local election vote last year, normally a good guide to the next election.

One unusual feature here is that Sinn Féin is fielding fewer candidates (42) than the number of seats it might be expected to win on its poll of polls vote. (It is not just commentators who are surprised at these poll numbers!)

The prediction of 42 seats here is almost certainly too high, but if the party did win 22% of the vote, the likelihood is that it would have enough votes to win two seats in several places where it is fielding only one candidate.

The most important feature is that the largest party, Fianna Fáil, is expected to win well short of even the 50 seats won by Fine Gael in 2016. This would present severe problems for Micheál Martin when trying to form a government.

And with Fine Gael only on just 34, even a historic break with the past in the form of a Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael coalition might not solve the problem.

Their combined seat total would be short of the 80 seats needed for a majority, although the most positive estimates for both would sum to 79….

Poll of polls: No clear result in sight (Michael Marsh, RTÉ)

Yesterday: Sinnderella Story

This morning.

President Michael D Higgins and wife Sabina cast their vote in today’s referendum at St Mary’s Hospital, Phoenix Park, Dublin, while Taoiseach Leo Varadkar casts his in Castleknock Dublin.


Sam Boal/Rollingnews/Sean Defoe


The IBD/TIPP poll — a collaboration between Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence (TIPP) — has been the most accurate poll in recent US presidential elections.

The final poll included 1,107 likely voters, and is based on weighted results of 361 Democrats, 333 Republicans, and 381 people who identify as independents or other. The final poll, which has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, was conducted from Nov. 4 through Nov. 7.

The poll shows Clinton doing better among women (44% to 40%), minorities (64% to 13%), urban voters (56% to 25%), the nonreligious (55% to 22%), and union households (48% to 41%).

Trump does better among men (46% to 38%), whites (51% to 34%), investors (48% to 42%), rural voters (58% to 29%) and those who describe themselves as working class (43% to 42%) or lower-class households (41% to 30%).

Trump also does better among independents (39% to 31%), with Johnson capturing a strong 16% of this group’s support.


Trump Holds 2-Point Lead Over Clinton As Election Day Arrives: Final IBD/TIPP Poll Results (IBD)


Today’s Irish Times/Ipsos poll

More polls than you can shake a stick at.

What do they all mean?

Shane Heneghan writes:

You wait a few days for a poll and then four of them come along all at once on a weekend. Dramatically enough, a B&A poll was leaked early showing Labour at 4%. The party’s analysis that this poll is “an outlier” probably rings true – no poll has yet seen them near that low. But this soon to polling it may prove to be a bit of self fulfilling prophecy and drag Labour down after  a sclerotic campaign.

There seems to be a steady climb for Fianna Fail who are now comfortable in the mid 20s. This coupled with the inability of the current coalition to reach a majority would make an ara-sure-it’s-grand-coalition between the two civil war parties considerably more likely as it would be more possible for Fianna Fail to make a deal with the blueshirts as equal(ish) partners.

All polls seem to point to a high vote for smaller parties and groups, if this is replicated on polling day will be important not because they may win more seats (though they might) but because of what happens to their votes when they are eliminated.

Given the very high level of support for small parties that don’t really stand a chance in a lot of constituencies they are standing in, data on where 2nd preferences might go is needed more than ever. For example, would Social Democrat voters (3-4% nationally) be inclined to transfer to the Greens (4%) thus perhaps putting them into contention in some unlikely areas? Or vice-versa.

Two out of four polls out this weekend show Fine Gael on 30%. Across the four of them we see the two coalition parties on an average of 35%. Sinn Fein seem to have peaked in the mid to high teens. Which may be disappointing for them. They have struggled with transfers in the past and the PRSTV system is very hard on a ‘Marmite’ party like theirs.

Of more interest at this stage is the emergence of various constituency level polls including, but not limited to, the series conducted by TG4 that’s concentrating on Gaeltacht areas.

Their poll in Kerry shows the Healy-Ray brothers as uncrowned kings of the kingdom on a combined total of 37%. It has particularly alarming results for Sinn Fein’s Martin Ferris, one of the parties big household names of the past few decades, on a mere 8% and just barely in contention for a seat.

The Shinners will be relieved to see they are on track for two seats in Donegal. Similarly, a poll in Mayo shows Fine Gael in the running for an astonishing three out of four seats.

The weekend’s Irish Times poll shows a huge change in support amongst farmers. At the start of the campaign Fianna Fail had a strong lead now Fine Gael has a commanding 47% of their support and this may figure in rural constituencies.

Another astounding figure from the same poll shows 41% of voters in greater Dublin will not vote for any of the main four parties.

The main take away from these results is that there are wild deviations from national polls at local level. The old maxim that this is really forty very separate local elections rather than a general election may be ringing true.

Irish elections have a habit of sorting themselves out in the last seven days or so. Bertie pulled it out of the fire in 2007 and Dick Spring sprang (see what I did there) to 19% in 1992.

Shane Heneghan is a Galway-based psephologist.


From top: Deputy leader of the Labour party and Environment Minister Alan Kelly; yesterday’s Sunday Times

Sunday Times journalist Sarah McInerney yesterday reported that members of the Labour party have accused the party’s deputy leader Alan Kelly of “leaking false data on constituency polls to damage potential leadership rivals”, such as Alex White, Seán Sherlock and Michael McCarthy.

The allegation followed reports from the previous Saturday which claimed internal analysis carried out by senior party strategists showed Labour could lose 20 seats in the next election.

Mr Kelly is director of elections for the Labour party.

Ms McInerney reported:

“According to Labour sources, Brendan Howlin, the public expenditure minister, was one of the first to raise the issue at the [parliamentary] meeting, saying there was a “boil that needs lancing” in the party.”

Following this, Mr Kelly spoke to Keelin Shanley on Morning Ireland this morning.

During the interview Mr Kelly not only denied leaking any data, he denied knowledge of any such analysis having been carried out.

From the interview…

Keelin Shanley: “First off, did you leak such a report?”

Alan Kelly: “Obviously, I never put anything into the papers, in relation to the issue, I’ve said this quite clearly. Whatever happened last Friday week, or whenever it was, that was published on Saturday, actually, to be straight about it, nobody’s ever directly said this to me. But I believe this is a complete storm in a teacup, I’m director of elections of the party, I’m not even aware of such analysis which is done in. If it was, I’m sure I would be aware of it.”

Shanley: “So you’re saying you didn’t leak it? Have you asked your staff?”

Kelly: “Not alone that, but I’m not aware of such analysis existing.”

Shanley: “So you didn’t leak it and you don’t, you haven’t seen it. Did you ask members of your staff whether or not they had leaked such a document or similar information?”

Kelly: “Of course I’ve spoken to everyone within, the people who work for me, but everyone in my own team, they’ve absolutely not, is the answer, but I’ll bring you back to the original point here. I’ve never seen such analysis, and I’m sure, as Director of Elections of the party, I would have seen such analysis. So I mean where this is coming from, certainly it’s not something that has crossed my desk.”

Shanley: “And minister does it concern you, I mean, what does it say to you, I suppose, about your standing in the party, that your parliamentary colleagues were so quick to decide that you had leaked this document. And I mean the language reported: ‘a boil that needs lancing’, ‘an appalling lack of political judgement’, what do you make of that?

Kelly: “Well, as I say to you, I’m, no one has actually said this directly to me, so…”

Shanley: “Well, you’ve read the reports like the rest of us?”

Kelly: “Yeah, there’s quotes in the paper but look I’m used to papers taking ink, I’m used to commentary being out there, after the last number of years, in this government, and in this department, I’m used to all such commentary being out there. But it certainly, many of the comments that are made in the paper, much of the analysis that’s put forward I certainly wouldn’t even agree with. I think that we have a great possibility of bringing this government back, I believe there’s a huge roll towards the Government, given the economic turnaround that’s happened…”

Shanley: “Fair enough, minister, but bringing it back to your role within the party and I mean you have, in the past, been mooted as a potential leadership candidate of the party. The fact that your party were so quick to unite around you being the source of the leak, in a way, it doesn’t matter whether you did or didn’t leak something, whether this does or doesn’t exist. It says volumes in the way in which you’re regarded.”

Kelly: “I think that’s very unfair analysis and I think it’s, you know, journalistic analysis from somebody like yourself or others who are making that opinion. I might also point out that when I ran for deputy leader of the party last year, that I got over 50 per cent support of the membership. Now does that not give you real data, real analysis of how I’m held in the party, more so than this sort of commentary?”

Shanley: “And those kinds of quotes: ‘a boil that needs lancing’, ‘appalling political judgement’?”

Kelly:I don’t know where these quotes came from, how real or how direct they are but I’m used to all this media and commentary from time to time. It doesn’t take much to get that and it certainly isn’t something that bothers me.”

Shanley: “So it’s not something that bothers you. But minister, can I ask you, I mean you’re saying this document doesn’t exist but, you know, what went out there was the prediction of the loss of up to about 20 seats for the Labour party. You know, on the basis of the current poll standings, would you see those figures as being accurate?”

Kelly: “I believe that this forthcoming election has an awful long way to go. Obviously everyone looks at polls from time to time. You’d be lying if you didn’t say that you looked at them but the reality is when the election comes about, when people focus in on the decision they have to make, I believe that they will support the Labour party for the way in which this country has been turned around. And certainly I believe that the role of my party, the Labour party, in this Government, has ensured fairness across the five years, obviously difficult decisions have been taken but look at where we are now. And I think that the country is in a much better position for the fact that my party has been part of this Government and I wouldn’t have liked to have seen a government without the Labour party in it…”

Listen back in full here

Kelly ‘leaked polls to hurt Labour rivals’ (Sunday Times)

Top Labour Party figures warn party could lose 20 seats (Sarah Bardon, Irish Times, November 21, 2015)

Previously: Nothing To C Here

Sasko Lazarov/Rollingnews.ie