One Job
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A table in relation to job creation claims in Ireland by Constantin Gurdgiev
Further to the recent claims from a junior minister that the Fine Gael/Labour coalition have been creating more than 1,000 jobs a week…
Adjunct assistant professor of finance at Trinity College Dublin, Constantin Gurdgiev writes on his True Economics blog:
There is a simple matter of arithmetic.
Recall that the current Government came into power at the end of 1Q 2011. Let us suppose the Government really got down to ‘creating jobs’ by 1Q 2012. Which means the Government has been at its jobs game for roughly 14-15 quarters through 3Q 2015 or, at the lower end 3 years and a half.
That means that the Government should have created “over” 182,000 jobs in that period. This benign to the Minister claim, because if we are to look at the record of the entire duration of the Government, his claim would have equated to roughly 221,000 jobs created.
… Keep the two numbers in your mind: we are told that the Government has ‘created’ either more than 182,000 or more than 221,000 jobs over its tenure, depending on where one starts to count.
Now, consult CSO QNHS database – the source of official counts for numbers in employment.
Between the end of 1Q 2012 and 3Q 2015 (the latest for which we have data), total employment rose 158,000. But wait, these are not all jobs. 4,500 of that increase is in the category of Assisting Relative. And 121,200 of these additions are employees, including schemes. Beyond this, the above increase also includes 30,100 new (added) self-employed with no employees.
It is hard to assume that the Government can claim it ‘created’ self-employment jobs where there is not enough activity to hire staff, or that it increased the need to help relatives.
Numbers speak for themselves. By the very best metric, Government is more than 1/2 year shy of the lowest end of the claim of ‘more than 1,000 jobs created per week’. It is more than 1/2 year shy of the claim that there were ‘1,000 jobs created per week’.
‘More than 1,000 jobs per week’ Government Claims v Reality (True Economics)
Hello.
This morning.
Dublin Castle
Taoiseach Enda Kenny makes ‘rooster hand’ while addressing the Financial Seminar [a European Financial Forum entitled Building the Future of European Financial Services].
Meanwhile…
Enda Kenny and Simon Harris at the conference.
Weed vape or rude self-pleasuring device?
We may never know.
Rollingnews
The extraordinarily delicate, becrowned porcelain skulls of Japanese artist Katsuyo Aoki. To wit:
…symbols representing power and glory, as well as the weight of responsibility. The crown takes on a variety of forms and context in Aoki’s exhibition throughout. As religious icons, they appear as a symbol of holy righteousness, but when placed on top of a skull, become a possible warning about the repercussions of the wearer’s reign.
The skulls are part of Dark Glove – an exhibition of Aoki’s work at Jason Jacques Gallery in New York which, if you’re in the neighbourhood, continues until February 21.
Environment Minister Alan Kelly at a housing development in Glasnevin, Dublin yesterday
You’ll recall how, last week, the minister for housing Paudie Coffey appeared on Claire Byrne Live following the broadcast of documentary My Homeless Family on RTÉ One – saying:
“In the last year as well, this Government and, you know, this society has provided 13,000 additional housing units for people. That’s up 86% on previous years…”
The claim prompted criticism online.
Further to this…
Environment Minister and deputy Labour leader Alan Kelly was interviewed by Seán O’Rourke on RTÉ Radio One this morning.
At the start of their discussion, Mr Kelly was asked about the 13,000 social housing figure.
Alan Kelly: “We’ve used every avenue possible to us to ensure 13,000 keys were given over to people. That’s up 86% on the previous year by the way. And it breaks down, we put a huge interest in voids which are social housing units that are boarded up. People around the country, and particularly those listening in Dublin, know what I’m talking about – 2,700 of those done this year, about 2,500 done the year before. And ‘buy and build’ was over in excess of 1,000, the CALF (Capital Advance Leasing Facility) scheme which is funding which is given out through AHBs (approved housing bodies) 350…”
Sean O’Rourke: “Sorry there’s a bit of alphabet soup there that I don’t understand and…”
Kelly: “Basically, it’s funding that’s given to approved housing bodies to go out and build different units.”
O’Rourke: “And how many came from that?”
Kelly: “350.”
O’Rourke: “Right.”
Kelly: “Regeneration, about 112. About, from leasing, about just under 2,000 and, from the Housing Assistance Payment, just under 6,000. So that’s how you get your…”
O’Rourke: “Yeah because they make the point that when you take the figure of 13,000, that these units are in now way new social housing units – many are pre-existing households in receipt of rent supplement, you’re simply moving them to new schemes.”
Kelly: “That simply isn’t true and it doesn’t bear facts. For instance, all those voids which are boarded-up units weren’t in existence. They were the quickest way in which we could turn around units and create new units. Where we’re leasing units and buying units, they are new units, they’re available in stock as well. And actually the 13,…”
O’Rourke: “But they’re taking units out of the market and making them available to other people.”
Kelly: “Yeah but in some cases, that’s necessary and in other cases, we don’t chases the market. But in some cases, there’s good value out there as well when you’re buying. I mean there’s no point in building some units in parts of the country when it’s actually cheaper to buy. These figures are actually conservative because, you know, the local authorities themselves, this is the units that are directly funded through my department. The local authorities themselves do a lot of work. There’s also the natural amount of progression you have in houses whereby social housing units pass on from one person to the other because of various different reasons, people moving away, people passing away, etc. So the number of people’s houses is more than that.”
Listen back in full here
Previously: How Few?
Related: From social housing annihilation to made-up stories (Be Your Own Reason)
Bouts – Allies
A new video from Dublin band Bouts [Barry Bracken, Colin Boylan, Daniel Flynn and Niall Jackson] directed by Eoin Heaney of Highly Stimulating Productions.
Allies is part of a 5-track EP called, Unlearn released as a limited edition 100 cassette run (with digital download included) on February 29. Pre-order here now.
Lego 1916.
Made by 3rd class Sunday’s Well primary school, Cork.
Mmf.
Thanks Spaghetti Hoop and John Gallen
A trailer for Disney’s Alice in Wonderland (1951), recut as a horror movie by Mashable Watercooler.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani opens a book he gave to Pope Francis as a gift at the Vatican on Tuesday.
I see the top chaps from Iran,
Will soon tuck into foie gras and flan,
Though they may skip the wine,
When they sit down to dine,
On a meal served with Gallic élan.
John Moynes
(AFP)
