Tag Archives: Economy

fitz[John Fitzgerald of the ESRI]

The ESRI predicted gross national product (GNP), which strips out the effects of multinational profit flows, would grow by 3.5 per cent this year, and by 3.7 per cent in 2015, rates of growth not seen since 2006.“After a long period of attrition, we are approaching the end of the very painful period of fiscal adjustment,” it said.

Yay.
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[Sunday Tribune, March 15, 2009]

Oh.

Ireland is now back on a growth path, says ESRI (irish Times)

Thanks Conor McCabe

 

130308103738-christine-lagarde-mario-draghi-620xa(IMF’s Christine Legarde and The European Central Bank’s Mario Draghi)

It’s a thing.

The IMF continued: “There are…political economy lessons to be learned. Greece’s recent experience demonstrates the importance of spreading the burden of adjustment across different strata of society in order to build support for a program.

A spokesman for the EU commission said: “We fundamentally disagree… With hindsight we can go back and say in an ideal world what should have been done differently. The circumstances were what they were. I think the commission did its best in an unprecedented situation.”

ECB President Mario Draghi has entered the debate too, saying: “We tend to judge things that happened yesterday with today’s eyes. We tend to forget that when the discussions were taking place the situation was much, much worse.”

 

The IMF owns up to mistakes, but EU accuses it of hindsight bias (Investment and Business News)

Meanwhile…

220px-Barry_Eichengreen-_World_Economic_Forum_Annual_Meeting_2012

The failure to use monetary policy more aggressively has been a problem; the failure to address credit market problems has been a serious problem as well. Now, in 2013 five years into the crisis the ECB is beginning to talk about some kind of securities’ market and credit market intervention and about addressing the financing problems of small and medium enterprises. Too little too late, one more time.

Growth cannot come only from exports. The Eurozone as a whole is too big to be able to export its way out of the crisis. Every Eurozone economy is trying to export more to the other Eurozone economies; and that does not add up. Some of the impetus for growth is going to have to come from internal demand and that in turn means there has to be more fiscal policy support.

 

Economist Barry Eichengreen (above), via Crisis Observatory.

Meanwhile…

vacancyEconomist (Publicjobs.ie)

(Reuters)

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Unemployment.

It’s going to stabilise.

The ESRI’s figures show that 316,000 people – 14.7 per cent of the labour force – were out of work in 2012.

The institute expects this to fall to 305,000 this year and to 298,000 in 2014, bringing the jobless rate down to just under 14 per cent from its current level of 14.7 per cent.

Finally.

Austerity is work…

The report’s authors, David Duffy and Kevin Timoney…predict 32,000 people will emigrate this year and a further 22,000 will leave in 2014.

 

Never mind.

Think of The Gathering we’ll have in 2023.

Economy To Perform Better Than Forecasts (Barry O’Halloran, Irish Times)

(Photocall Ireland)

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The outlook for economic recovery remains “highly uncertain” over the medium term, a new International Monetary Fund report has warned.

The staff report concludes that the Government has achieved strong policy implementation of the bailout programme so far, and it refers to the fact that market access has markedly improved.

But in a relatively downbeat assessment, the report also flags as as significant hurdles declines in domestic demand, high public and private debt, ongoing problems with profitability and lending in the banking sector.

[…]

Referring to inadequate progress by banks, the IMF staff appraisal is that a sharp improvement is needed in dealing with non-performing loans. This is “critical to strengthen prospects for recovery”, it has stated.

 

Seems Chomsky was being optimistic.

Economic recovery in medium term ‘highly uncertain’ – IMF (HarryMcGee, Irish Times)

Yesterday: Specialist Eviction Judges, You Say?

(Sam Boal/Photocall Ireland)