Author Archives: Bodger

Eoin Ó Broin, Sinn Féin TD and the porty’s chief negotiator in talks to form a new government

This morning.

On RTÉ Radio One’s Morning Ireland.

[Sinn Féin TD] Eoin Ó Broin said while Sinn Féin’s preference was a left-wing coalition with the Social Democrats or the Green party the numbers are not there and that became clear on Tuesday after the General Election results.

“On Tuesday morning the broad progressive left had 66 TDs and that is not enough for government… What we have been saying since then is we want a government led by progressive left policies.”

Meanwhile…

…He (Micheál Martin) has said various things and there has not been clarity. Yesterday he suggested he is going to put Leo Varadkar back into office. If last week he wasn’t going talk to Fine Gael and now he is then he clearly changes his mind.”

Impossible for SF to form coalition government without FF or FG – Ó Broin (RTÉ)

Earlier: 50 Ways To Form A Government

[click to enlarge]

Every.

Single.

Goddam.

Permutation.

Much-loved mapper Omar Sarhan writes:

So there are 50 possible ways government can be formed based on on the result of the vote. Some formulations are realistic others a lot less likely…

Interactive version here

Previously: Omar Sarhan on Broadsheet

Thanks Some Old Queen

Update:

The potential mixes of FF and SF in order to hit the target.

This morning.

Via Fine Gael Fingal Councillor Emer Currie:

Update on timings for the [820k] restoration of the Phoenix Park gates [removed for Pope Francis’ visit] – approximately 9 months to restore and they will then be reinstated…

Um.

Phoenix Park gates to be refurbished at cost of €820k (Irish Examiner)

Fionnan Sheahan, of The Irish Independent

Further to popular demand and following the posting of details yesterday of Montrose-based shambolic soothsaying…

…below are the General Election predictions of Fionnan Sheahan, of the Irish Independent.

These were published on January 15, 16, and 17, 2020. As of February 3, 2020, the election polls had shown that, following six national election polls, the combined Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael vote was less than 44%,while Sinn Féin was polling more than twice its local election vote in 2019.

Cork East

Mr Sheahan said:

“Sinn Féin’s Pat Buckley is on the backfoot from Fianna Fáil golden boy James O’Connor and Fine Gael’s Pa O’Driscoll. After a strong local elections showing, Independent Mary Linehan-Foley also fancies her chances. Fine Gael’s David Stanton and Fianna Fáil’s Kevin O’Keeffe are in before a vote is cast, while Labour’s Seán Sherlock never takes anything for granted.”

The result: Mr Buckley topped the poll and was elected on the first count with 12,587 votes, 23.1% of the first preference votes.

Labour’s Seán Sherlock took the second seat, Fine Gael’s David Stanton took the third and Fianna Fáil’s took the fourth seat – all on the eighth count.

Cork South West

Mr Sheahan said:

“Fine Gael should be going for two seats. Instead, the party is worried about holding one. The new ticket of Tim Lombard and Karen Coakley faces a baptism of fire. Fianna Fáil’s Margaret Murphy O’Mahony is joined late in the day by poll-topping councillor Christopher O’Sullivan as the party sniffs Blue blood in Michael Collins country. The other Michael Collins, the sitting Independent TD, will be worried about getting caught in the crossfire.”

The result: Independent Michael Collins took the first seat after the first count with 26.4% of the first-preference votes; Fianna Fáil’s Christopher O’Sullivan took the second and Social Democrats Holly Cairns took the third, both after the eighth count.

Dublin Central

Mr Sheahan said:

“An extra seat is up for grabs with Fianna Fáil’s Mary Fitzpatrick whopping local elections putting her on track in ‘Bertie-land’, with the Green Party’s Neasa Hourigan also in contention. Fine Gael’s Paschal Donohoe is solid, but won’t bring in his running mate Deirdre Duffy. Sinn Féin leader Mary-Lou McDonald is also fine.

The doubt over Independent Maureen O’Sullivan’s intentions – as of now she’s running – meaning her seat is being targeted by Social Democrat Garry Gannon and Labour’s Joe Costello.”

The result: Mary Lou McDonald topped the poll and was elected on the first count with 11,223 votes, 35.7% of the first preference votes.

Green Party’s Neasa Hourigan took the second seat, Fine Gael’s Paschal Donohoe the third and Social Democrats’ Gary Gannon took the fourth, all on the ninth count.

Dublin Rathdown

Mr Sheahan said: “All eyes are on Independent minister Shane Ross, the most coveted scalp of them all. FG’s Neale Richmond, FF’s Shay Brennan and Labour’s Lettie McCarthy are the war party circling him as he seeks refuge in Stepaside Garda Station.

FG minister Josepha Madigan and Green Catherine Martin are safe as houses in the most volatile constituency in the country.”

The result: The Green Party’s Catherine Martin took the first seat after the fifth count, Fine Gael’s Neale Richmond took the second and Fine Gael’s Josepha Madigan took the third, both after the eighth count.

Dun Laoghaire

Mr Sheahan said

“FG’s Mary Mitchell-O’Connor is safe but the party is already down retiring TD Seán Barrett and the ditched Maria Bailey. FG is desperately trying to salvage a disaster with Jennifer Carroll-MacNeill.

Green Ossian Smyth looks unstoppable and also poses a threat to the support of Solidarity’s Richard Boyd-Barrett.

FF’s Mary Hanafin has ministerial potential advantage over her running mate Cormac Devlin in a place where the voters like to elect ministers.”

The result: Richard Boyd Barrett topped the poll and took the second seat with 15.5% of the first-preference votes while Green Party’s Ossian Smyth took the first seat, after securing 14.9% of the first-preference votes. Fine Gael’s Jennifer Carroll Macneill took the third and Fianna Fáil’s Cormac Devlin took the fourth, both after the eighth count.

Kildare North

Mr Sheahan said:

“FF’s dynamic duo of Frank O’Rourke and James Lawless were the party’s biggest success in 2016. They are dug in hard awaiting the onslaught from Labour’s Emmet Stagg and Green Vincent P Martin. FG’s Bernard Durkan and Soc Dem Catherine Murphy are again dependable.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Réada Cronin took the second seat on count 6 after winning 17.1% of the first preference votes.

Catherine Murphy, of the Social Democrats, topped the poll with 11,008 votes and 19.3% of the first preference votes. Fine Gael’s Bernard Durkan took the third seat and Fianna Fáil’s James Lawless the fourth.

Limerick County

Mr Sheahan said:

“The climate is changing all over the world, but there are no changing winds in west Limerick. The rivalry between Fine Gael Minister Patrick O’Donovan and fellow TD Tom Neville keeps both on their toes. Fianna Fáil’s Niall Collins is as sure as anything. So far, nobody else seems bothered to even put up a proper challenge.”

Fine Gael’s Patrick O’Donovan took the first seat, Fianna Fáil’s Niall Collins took the second and Independent Richard O’Donoghue took the third.

Meath East

Mr Sheahan said:

“Anything other than a return of the sitting trio, FG ministers Regina Doherty and Helen McEntee and FF ministerial contender Thomas Byrne, will be a massive shock. But there’ll still be some craic between the traditional Blueshirt tribe of McEntee and new Fine Gael camp of Doherty along the way.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Darren O’Rourke topped the poll, taking 24.4% of the first preference votes. He was elected on the second count.

Fine Gael’s Helen McEntee took the second seat and Fianna Fáil’s Thomas Byrne the third, both on the seventh count. Regina Doherty was eliminated on the sixth count.

Tipperary

Mr Sheahan said:

“The Premier County is technically the most independently-minded part of the country with three non-party TDs, Michael Lowry, Mattie McGrath and Seamus Healy. Fine Gael figure Healy is the weakest. The party’s line up of Garret Ahearn and Mary Newman Julian is untested though. Losing two seats and ending up with no TD last time out was a calamity Fine Gael dare not even think of repeating. Fianna Fáil’s Jackie Cahill, Labour’s Alan Kelly and Lowry will get across handily and McGrath should be there too.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Martin Browne took the third seat when he was elected on the eighth count. He won 12.2% of the first preference votes (the second highest figure).

Independent Michael Lowry was elected on the first count with 18.1% of the first preference votes while Independent Mattie McGrath took the second seat on the eighth count after winning 11.4% of the first preference votes.

Labour’s Alan Kelly took the fourth seat and Fianna Fáil’s Jackie Cahill the fifth.

Carlow-Kilkenny

Mr Sheahan said:

“Whisper it softly but FF could go back to three seats here at FG’s expense.

Everything would need to go their way but FF’s John McGuinness in Kilkenny city, Bobby Aylward in the county and Jennifer Murnane O’Connor can capitalise on a swing.

Of course, Aylward also has to watch out for Murnane O’Connor taking him out if they fall short and are left with two. FG minister John Paul Phelan faces a task to manage the votes of Pat Deering and Patrick O’Neill to hold two seats steady.

SF’s Kathleen Funchion is deep in the relegation zone with Green Malcolm Noonan poised to strike.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Kathleen Funchion topped the poll and was elected on the first count with 17,493 votes, 23.8% of the first preference votes.

Fianna Fáil’s John McGuinness took the second seat on the sixth count; Fine Gael’s John Paul Phelan took the third on the eighth count; Fianna Fáil’s Jennifer Murnane O’Connor took the fourth seat, also on the eighth count; and Malcolm Noonan, of the Green Party, took the fifth seat on the tenth count.

Dublin Fingal

Continue reading →

Last night.

Artane, Dublin 5.

A cadndle-lit vigil for the victims of the Stardust fire – featuring addresses from Eamon Dunphy and Charlie Bird and an unveiling of a plaque at the site of club to remember the 48 people who died in the early hours of Valentine’s Day, 1981.

Last September, Attorney General Séamus Woulfe announced  that a fresh inquest will be held into the deaths.

Previously: A Fresh Inquest

Sam Boal /RollingNews

Tonight.

It’ll be grand.

Earlier…

Tonight.

Via RTÉ

Speaking on RTÉ’s Six One, Mr Martin said forming a government would be difficult, adding that the view of his party was that there are “irreconcilable differences” between Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin.

“I wouldn’t rule out another general election – this is going to be so difficult,” he said.

‘I would not rule out another election’ – Martin (RTÉ)

Earlier…

This afternoon/evening.

Kildare Street, Dublin 2.

From top: Fianna Fáil TDs Sean Haughey, Niall Collins and Dara Colleary leaving a parliamentary party meeting…

Limerick County TD Niall Collins told Reuters that the party was fully behind not going into government with Sinn Féin.

He also said a possible coalition with Fine Gael was not really discussed at the meeting, and added it may not be possible to form a government.

FF agrees not to enter coalition talks with SF (RTÉ)

Rollingnews

Ryan Tubridy

On the Late Late Show…

Jennifer O’Brien writes:

It’s that time of the year again when over 200 singletons put their hopeful hearts in Ryan Tubridy’s hands for The Late Late Show Valentine’s Special, this year aptly taking place tomorrow evening, Friday February 14.

Assisting Ryan will be a cast that includes former Wet Wet Wet front-man Marti Pellow

Eilish O’Carroll, star of Mrs Brown’s Boys, and her partner Marion O’Sullivan, will be among the couples joining Ryan for a special segment entitled Love Will Find A Way.

The inimitable Mary O’Rourke will be joined by Pat Spillane and Sharon Higgins to give their “Agony OAP” life advice to millennials in distress

The famed three-chair challenge also returns, sending some audience members on a romantic and luxurious date… to The Late Late Show greenroom.

The Late Late Show Valentine’s Special, RTÉ One at 9.35pm.

Pic via RTÉ


Sinn Féin TDs elected last week

How wrong?

Horribly wrong.

Ahead of the general election, RTÉ’s political team predicted how the vote would go in each constituency online.

Many of RTÉ’s staff based their predictions on the 2019 local elections, during which Sinn Féin lost 78 seats across the country.

Here are some of the State broadcaster’s predictions versus the eventual results…

Cork East – four seats

RTÉ predicted: 2, Fianna Fáil (Kevin O’Keeffe and James O’Connor); 1, Fine Gael (David Stanton); 1, Labour (Seán Sherlock).

Of Sinn Féin TD and candidate Pat Buckley, the station said:

“Buckley stepped in as a new broom and kept the Sinn Fein seat in 2016. But his profile on the ground is said to be not what it needs to be…”

The result: Mr Buckley topped the poll and was elected on the first count with 12,587 votes, 23.1% of the first preference votes.

Labour’s Seán Sherlock took the second seat, Fine Gael’s David Stanton took the third and Fianna Fáil’s took the fourth seat – all on the eighth count.

Dublin Central – four seats

RTÉ predicted: 1, Fine Gael (Paschal Donohoe); 1, Sinn Féin (Mary Lou McDonald); and a battle between Social Democrats (Gary Gannon), Fianna Fáil (Mary Fitzpatrick) and Green Party (Nessa Hourigan) for the final two seats.

Of Sinn Féin candidate Mary Lou McDonald, the station said:

“Political observers will be closely watching the Sinn Féin leader’s vote after a series of disappointing results for the party in last May’s local elections. On that occasion, Sinn Féin said the party had failed to get its vote out. But recent opinion polls point to improved prospects for the party.”

The result: Mary Lou McDonald topped the poll and was elected on the first count with 11,223 votes, 35.7% of the first preference votes.

Green Party’s Neasa Hourigan took the second seat, Fine Gael’s Paschal Donohoe the third and Social Democrats’ Gary Gannon took the fourth, all on the ninth count.

Continue reading →


This morning.

On Cork’s 96FM Opinion Line with PJ Coogan.

Dee writes:

Corkwoman Elaine Daly (53) had a painfull fall outside her home in Larchfield, Cork City yesterday morning in freezing temperatures.

Her neighbour Vickie Thompson phoned an ambulance at 8.15am. When they called an hour later to ask why the ambulance had not come, the dispatcher responded that one was on the way and would take a further 105 minutes.

A Cork ambulance team, which came on duty at 10am and was reassigned the call, arrived at roughly 10.40 and informed them that the original ambulance dispatched was on its way ….from Dublin.

96FM