Tabulations of the state of the main parties following six national opinion polls. Tables include estimates of how these votes would translate into seats.

After six national polls since the General Election was called.

How do things stand?

Via RTE, Michael Marsh, a Professor of Comparative Political Behaviour and a Fellow of Trinity College,  writes:

The table above shows where these trends leave the parties at present, with Fianna Fáil marginally ahead of Sinn Féin, 23.5% to 22.5%, and Fine Gael in third place with 20%. Green lead the rest with 8.5%.

It is striking that the combined Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael vote is less than 44%, the lowest we have seen at any point since polling began, and a long way below the figure of 65% seen in 2017.

Sinn Féin’s rise is also remarkable, well up on its polling before Christmas and more than twice its local election vote last year, normally a good guide to the next election.

One unusual feature here is that Sinn Féin is fielding fewer candidates (42) than the number of seats it might be expected to win on its poll of polls vote. (It is not just commentators who are surprised at these poll numbers!)

The prediction of 42 seats here is almost certainly too high, but if the party did win 22% of the vote, the likelihood is that it would have enough votes to win two seats in several places where it is fielding only one candidate.

The most important feature is that the largest party, Fianna Fáil, is expected to win well short of even the 50 seats won by Fine Gael in 2016. This would present severe problems for Micheál Martin when trying to form a government.

And with Fine Gael only on just 34, even a historic break with the past in the form of a Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael coalition might not solve the problem.

Their combined seat total would be short of the 80 seats needed for a majority, although the most positive estimates for both would sum to 79….

Poll of polls: No clear result in sight (Michael Marsh, RTÉ)

Yesterday: Sinnderella Story

Behold: the interstellar bow wave of ‘runaway’ star Zeta Ophiuchi, seen here in infrared. To wit:

In the false-colour view, bluish Zeta Oph, a star about 20 times more massive than the Sun, lies near the centre of the frame, moving toward the left at 24 kilometres per second. Its strong stellar wind precedes it, compressing and heating the dusty interstellar material and shaping the curved shock front. What set this star in motion? Zeta Oph was likely once a member of a binary star system, its companion star was more massive and hence shorter lived. When the companion exploded as a supernova catastrophically losing mass, Zeta Oph was flung out of the system. About 460 light-years away, Zeta Oph is 65,000 times more luminous than the Sun and would be one of the brighter stars in the sky if it weren’t surrounded by obscuring dust. The image spans about 1.5 degrees or 12 light-years at the estimated distance of Zeta Ophiuchi. Last week, NASA placed the Spitzer Space Telescope in safe mode, ending its 16 successful years of studying our universe.

(Image: NASA, JPL-Caltech, Spitzer Space Telescope)

apod

From top: Yesterday’s Irish Mail on Sunday; Ryan Tubridy (left) interviewing Pat Spillane in June 2019; Michael Ring, Minister for Rural and Community Development; his request for details of Pat Spillane’s RTE pay.

Yesterday.

In the Irish Mail on Sunday,

Journalist Ken Foxe, of RightToKnowIE, revealed  Minister Michael Ring used Freedom of Information to try and find out how much GAA analyst Pat Spillane had been paid by RTÉ.

The request came four days after Mr Spillane had criticised Mr Ring and the Fine Gael government on The Late Late Show.

Mr Spillane said Mr Ring was ‘handing out grants’ rather than regenerating rural Ireland

He told host Ryan Tubridy::

“Grants are great, but grants are short term, sticking-plaster solutions and they are political … throwing meat to the lions.

These projects are not about people … Rural development has to be people-centred and people-driven. The minister is getting very bad advice. They have to bring jobs to rural Ireland.”

Ken Foxe writes:

When I first tried to find out the identity of the TD who made the request, RTÉ refused to release it saying they considered that it constituted the “private papers” of the Oireachtas member. This is the exemption famously used to hide politicians’ expenses:

Interestingly, RTÉ said they had contacted the person in question to establish if they sought the records “as part of their work as a TD or as part of their work in an FOI’able body” e.g. a government department.

The TD said it was “sought as part of their role as a TD”

This was despite the fact that Mr Spillane worked directly for Minister Ring’s department. Mr Spillane was also in direct contact with Mr Ring in his role as rural ambassador.

Through RightToKnowIE, we appealed RTÉ’s decision and after internal review their decision was overturned

Going back to request itself, I asked Mr Ring about assertion this was done in his capacity as a TD, rather than in his capacity as a minister.

The “private papers” exemption could not have applied if request was made as a minister. His spokesman said he would not be commenting.

Notable that he also sought for the information to be “relayed … as a matter of urgency”.

He did not get what he was looking for however, as the salary/expenses and so on are considered “personal information” and the request was refused.

RightToKnowIE

Michael Ring pic: Rollingnews

‘Quattro Colori’ 

A trailer for a bruising new documentary by Donal Moloney on Calcio Storico – an ancient form of football from the 16th century with teams of 27 a side, using both feet and hands.

The president of Calcio Storico called it the “greatest ever” documentary made about their sport following a recent screening in Florence, Italy.

Donal says:

The 73 minute documentary will now do the festival tour before it becomes available to the general public. It’s a totally Irish production. Myself and two others shot the entire movie over a 7 month period. It’s a self funded labour of love…

In fairness.

‘Quattro Colori’ will have its first Irish screening at the Fastnet Film Festival [May20-24] in Schull, County Cork where one of the main Calciante/players will also be involved in a post-screening  Q&A.

Donal Moloney

Taking a break from his usual forays into the natural world, zefrank focuses on the compulsions, quirks, dark epiphanies and daily anxieties of human office workers.

Episode 4 has been a long time coming.

Previously: True Facts About Elsa (And Her Stinky Friends)

This morning.

Clonskeagh, Dublin 14.

Cormac writes:

I wonder what contributed to this telecom pole blowing over last night? Leaving a near invisible phone line neck height across the footpath?

Any physics/maths person want to figure out the pushing force x4 AO pieces of rigid card added to the top of a not new, 30 foot high, 14″ wide, wooden pole?

Anyone?

Broadsheet.ie