‘sup?
Liz writes:
Cool cats standing for election in Cloughjordan. Up the Tipperary Cats in Offaly!
Yesterday: What’s It All About, Albie
Tag Archives: General Election 2016
Clare Cullen writes:
There’s been a lot of talk this election about engaging young people but not much action, as far as I can see. Canvassers who call to my door still ask for my parents (I’m 27 and don’t live with my parents) and they have no interest in discussing (and often, no knowledge of) their policies.
They just throw a leaflet, say ‘vote number one!’ and leave. So, a couple of Irish YouTubers got together and we made this video (above).
It’s the Irish election – Sims version. Don’t worry, no matter where you go wrong you get elected anyway on transfers, and you can play again in five years.
Previously: Honed To Vote
This afternoon.
The Bord Gais Energy Theatre in Dublin.
Michael Noonan and Enda Kenny at Fine Gael’s final General Election press conference ahead of the broadcasting moratorium from 2pm tomorrow.
Meanwhile…
This afternoon.
Renua Ireland leader Lucinda Creighton with Renua’s candidates at their last press conference in Buswells Hotel, Dublin ahead of Friday’s election.
Meanwhile..
This afternoon.
The People Before Profit/Anti Austerity Alliance hold their final press conference at the Mont Clare Hotel. From left: Brid Smith, Boyd Barrett, Ruth Coppinger and Paul Murphy.
Meanwhile…
This afternoon.
Leinster House, Dublin.
Roisin Shortall (centre), of the Soc Dems, asks voters to convert “overwhelming goodwill into a positive vote” for its 14 candidates including from left: Liam Coyne , Anne Marie McNally, Catherine Murphy and Glenna Lynch.
Meanwhile….
This afternoon.
Sinn Féin President Gerry Adams (centre) with Pearse Doherty (right) and Cork South Central candidate Donnchadh O’Laoghaire at the party’s final press conference in the Lavery Room of the National Gallery, Dublin.
All pics: Rollingnews
Polltergeist
at
Today’s Irish Times/Ipsos poll
More polls than you can shake a stick at.
What do they all mean?
Shane Heneghan writes:
You wait a few days for a poll and then four of them come along all at once on a weekend. Dramatically enough, a B&A poll was leaked early showing Labour at 4%. The party’s analysis that this poll is “an outlier” probably rings true – no poll has yet seen them near that low. But this soon to polling it may prove to be a bit of self fulfilling prophecy and drag Labour down after a sclerotic campaign.
There seems to be a steady climb for Fianna Fail who are now comfortable in the mid 20s. This coupled with the inability of the current coalition to reach a majority would make an ara-sure-it’s-grand-coalition between the two civil war parties considerably more likely as it would be more possible for Fianna Fail to make a deal with the blueshirts as equal(ish) partners.
All polls seem to point to a high vote for smaller parties and groups, if this is replicated on polling day will be important not because they may win more seats (though they might) but because of what happens to their votes when they are eliminated.
Given the very high level of support for small parties that don’t really stand a chance in a lot of constituencies they are standing in, data on where 2nd preferences might go is needed more than ever. For example, would Social Democrat voters (3-4% nationally) be inclined to transfer to the Greens (4%) thus perhaps putting them into contention in some unlikely areas? Or vice-versa.
Two out of four polls out this weekend show Fine Gael on 30%. Across the four of them we see the two coalition parties on an average of 35%. Sinn Fein seem to have peaked in the mid to high teens. Which may be disappointing for them. They have struggled with transfers in the past and the PRSTV system is very hard on a ‘Marmite’ party like theirs.
Of more interest at this stage is the emergence of various constituency level polls including, but not limited to, the series conducted by TG4 that’s concentrating on Gaeltacht areas.
Their poll in Kerry shows the Healy-Ray brothers as uncrowned kings of the kingdom on a combined total of 37%. It has particularly alarming results for Sinn Fein’s Martin Ferris, one of the parties big household names of the past few decades, on a mere 8% and just barely in contention for a seat.
The Shinners will be relieved to see they are on track for two seats in Donegal. Similarly, a poll in Mayo shows Fine Gael in the running for an astonishing three out of four seats.
The weekend’s Irish Times poll shows a huge change in support amongst farmers. At the start of the campaign Fianna Fail had a strong lead now Fine Gael has a commanding 47% of their support and this may figure in rural constituencies.
Another astounding figure from the same poll shows 41% of voters in greater Dublin will not vote for any of the main four parties.
The main take away from these results is that there are wild deviations from national polls at local level. The old maxim that this is really forty very separate local elections rather than a general election may be ringing true.
Irish elections have a habit of sorting themselves out in the last seven days or so. Bertie pulled it out of the fire in 2007 and Dick Spring sprang (see what I did there) to 19% in 1992.
Shane Heneghan is a Galway-based psephologist.
Outside Tallaght Hospital, Dublin 24
Peter Fitzpatrick, a patient representative on the National Clinical Advisory Group, is standing as Independent candidate in Dublin South West constitutency.
And putting his money (above) where his mouth is.
Peter writes:
Mismanagement and short term policy making over the last twenty years has led us to a point where our Health services are in a permanent state of crisis and can no longer safely treat the population.
I am using my limited resources to take a simple message to the streets of Dublin South West, it’s time to put Health above regular party politics.
All the party manifestos have now been published – 8 parties, 8 different directions on Health.
….All of these shifts in policy are hugely counterproductive. We are going back on ourselves, literally in circles – we need to come together on this, Health is too important.No single party has the answers. We need one plan, across the parties with the input of those that work in the service. Doctors and Nurses are struggling to hold the system together while one Minister works to reverse the policy of another.
One National Strategy, above party politics, to be implemented regardless of whatever Government is in power.Unless we get that, we will never make any real progress.
FIGHT!
They’re out at it, again.
Electioneering is rife, and amid all the false promises and fiscal space invasions, Dublin’s premiere observers of the sterility of Irish modernity are releasing a new tune.
Shrug Life, who impressed with strident yet sarky EP The Grand Stretch last year, continue in their wry mode of gentle agit-pop with new single Making Progress, streaming in the widget above.
Sez the lads, ahead of a gig in Dubland on Thursday:
Evoking the rabble rousing spirit of The Jam and the black humour of The Smiths, ‘Making Progress’ is fuelled by the uncertainty and false promise of electioneering Ireland.
Produced by Fiachra McCarthy (Squarehead, Dott, So Cow) and mastered by Mark Chester (Ginnels, Paddy Hanna), the song is available as a free download from the band’s Soundcloud and Bandcamp pages (links below)
Shrug Life will also play Dublin’s Bernard Shaw to celebrate the release this Thursday at 9pm. With a capacity of 80, and free entry, get there (very) early
“sup?
This morning.
Alan Kinsella at irish Election Literature, writes:
Strangest
#ge16 poster I’ve seen yet
Today’s Sunday Business Post/Red C Poll
A new poll.
Taken before the TV3 leaders’ debate on Thursday.
What does it all mean?
Shane Heneghan writes:
Another poll that would lead to an extremely divided Dáil. It also looks like things are starting to move. Fine Gael are beginning to dive under the 30% mark. Fianna Fail are rising slowly and Sinn Fein are up three percent.
In short, this is another poll that points to protracted post election negotiations and possibly even a second election this year.
We can probably see the theme of another election enter the campaign. Leaders will and should be asked under what circumstances would they force a second general election rather than form a government and why.
One of the more interesting points here is that Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil are very close. [NUI Maynooth lecturer and election analyst] Adrian Kavanagh‘s sterile scientific means of predicting the make up of the Dail based on polls has FF getting more seats than SF despite getting less 1st preferences than them.
Would this be seen as fair? Would this affect coalition negotiations? Yes this is well well down the list of stumbling blocks to the formation of such a government, but if Gerry Adams’ party has more 1st preferences than Michael Martin’s then you can expect the phrase “rotating Taoiseach” to raise it’s head again.
Similarly, we see smaller parties continue to perform well here. Despite this, it’s still hard to see where they might gain on a constituency level. It is possible, for example, that the Social Democrats may get a mere 1.8% (3) of the seats on 4% of the vote.
Shane Heneghan is a Galway-based election expert/Irish political anorak/poll number-cruncher and part of Broadsheet’s ‘crack’ General Election 2016 team.
Fine Gael and Labour slump by five points as Sinn Fein rise (Sunday Business Post)
Pic: Sunday Business Post
A day in the General Election 2016 life of Dublin North Labour TD John Lyons.
Photographer Leon Farrell joined Mr Lyons at his home on the Poppintree estate, Ballymun, Dublin 11 for breakfast and a day of Pancake Tuesday canvassing
A day that included a visit to his alma mater, Trinity Comprehensive and to Dublin City University with Labour leader Joan Burton and tay with his mother Josie (pic 12) and her dog Busker.
Leon Farrell/Rollingnews
The weekend’s polls.
What do they all mean?
Shane Heneghan writes:
You’d be hard pressed to know what to think about these two polls Both point towards two very dıfferent propositions becoming slightly more plausible.
Fırstly, the TINA theory- (‘there ıs no alternative’ to FG) would seem more plausible ın the Red C poll wıth Fıne Gael clımbıng to 31 and Labour breakıng ınto double fıgures – this has the government on 41% collectıvely – probably not enough for a majorıty though Fıanna Faıl once came close to ıt ın 2002 on 41.5% – but ıt shows the momentum ıs there.
The second ıdea ıs that the government has peaked and can only go down from here on ın. The Mıllward Brown poll shows Labour ın meltdown at 6% and Fıne Gael stallıng at 27%. Based on these numbers the Dail could be deadlocked and another electıon ımınent unless the ‘ara-sure-ıts-grand’ coaiıtıon ıdea ıs put on the table.
As for the smaller partıes the SocDems show a bıt of pace on 4% ın the Red C poll as do the Greens on 3% The questıon has to be asked when the numbers are this small where these partıes wıll actually pıck up seats. Eamon Ryan wıll probably return to the Dail after a formıdable and somewhat unexpected showıng ın the 2014 European Parliament electıon. But you’d be hard pressed to fınd another Green candidate that has a realıstıc chance of getting more than 10% of 1st preferences.
Let me tell you my main complaint about these latest polls. I’m getting deja vu – ıf you cast your mınd back to the Brıtish electıon last year you mıght remember a sımılar sıtuaıon – good news for the ıncumbents ın some polls good news for the ınsurgents ın others. When the ballot boxes were opened most were shocked. Very few seriously predicted a Tory majorıty.
Even the exıt poll which sampled a massıve 22,000 voters on pollıng day ıtself and seemed to show the fabled last mınute dash to the Conservatives but faıled to predict the eventual outcome of an overall Tory majorıty.
It’s better to bring up the ıdea dodgy pollıng now rather than later. The tıred polıtıcal quıp of a poll beıng nothing more than a snap shot ın tıme ıs more than the default lıne of the polıtıcıan strugging to make headway.
Shane Heneghan is Brussels-based election expert/Irish political anorak/poll number-cruncher and part of Broadsheet’s ‘crack’ General Election 2016 team.
Graphs via RTÉ