This morning.

At Government Buildings.

Family members and friends of the 48 people who died and 214 people who were injured in the fire at the Stardust nightclub, in Artane, Dublin on Valentine’s Day in 1981, march in protest before handing in more than 48,000 signed postcards to the Attorney General – calling for the 48 inquests to be reopened.

Previously: Not For Turning

Stardust Memory

Meanwhile…

Justice For the Stardust 48 (Facebook)

Pics: Mick Caul

From top: UK prime Minister Theresa May At Dublin Castle last year during a EU summit; Derek Mooney

Indefatigability. I like the word. Though more prosaic than poetic, I even like how it sounds. But it is the quality which it describes that attracts me most: dogged persistence, the cussed determination to keep on keeping on.

It is a word which fell into disrepute after it was deployed in 1994 by far-left British Labour MP George Galloway, in cringing televised audience with Saddam Hussein.

Galloway concluded his unperforated imitation of a wad of three-ply Andrex (other brands are available) with the peroration:

“Sir, I salute your courage, your strength your indefatigability. And I want you to know that we are with you until victory, until victory, until Jerusalem.”

While the taint of Galloway undoubtedly did the word harm, it is time to reclaim and rehabilitate it, not least as it is the best available word to describe Theresa May’s relentless commitment over the past year.

When future historians come to rank the British Prime Ministers of the past 100 years, May will appear well ahead of her immediate predecessor, David Cameron, on the list. What she lacks in style and charisma she makes up for in fortitude and resolve.

It is difficult not to admire her ability to withstand the fiercest and most vituperative criticisms and to manage to conclude negotiations on a Withdrawal Agreement, even a flawed one.

She has gone a long way to square what seemed to be an unyielding circle and secured a deal that delivers on Brexit by taking the UK out of the EU institutions.

She has done this by constructing a clumsy, if not grudging, relationship with the EU Customs Union and Single Market that will not excessively damage UK business or impose border infrastructures either on or around this island.

She has also managed, though most of the credit should go to Michel Barnier and his team, to design a situation that could allow Northern Ireland to become an EU/UK hub or gateway, putting it in an economically beneficial situation for the first time since its creation almost a century ago.

It is an achievement that has not been lost on the Scottish government. Indeed, the possibility of Northern Ireland having an economic advantage over Scotland is the reason why the SNP at Westminster will oppose the Agreement.

How ironic that Northern Ireland’s economic viability could be secured in a deal which the DUP will fiercely oppose and on which Sinn Féin will abstain. Further evidence of how broken politics in Northern Ireland has become.

But while Theresa May is deserving of admiration for what she has managed to achieve, we on this island – North and South – should not allow this to turn us into cheerleaders for the Withdrawal Agreement.

Yes, the deal is far preferable to a disorderly no-deal-Brexit, but there is still another and far better option available: a second referendum. A #PeoplesVote where the choices are (1) this deal or (2) No Brexit. It is the option now favoured by many across the political divide.

It is the option which Tony Blair backed strongly last week in a well-argued opinion piece for the Daily Telegraph and his Institute for Global Change website.

Though I have argued here in the past that holding a second referendum on Brexit could cause as many problems as it solves, particularly given the big turnout in the first one, British politics is now so divided and bust that I too have come to the conclusion that there is now no other way to resolve the folly of Brexit than by going back to the people.

The harsh reality of the House of Commons arithmetic is that it is impossible for Theresa May to construct a simple majority for the Withdrawal Agreement.

The DUP are again hellbent on saying No while the SNP looks almost certain to oppose the Withdrawal Agreement as do the Liberal Democrats

May will not get the support of all her own Tory MPs. On one side there is a tranche of 40-50 hard-line Brexiteer Tory MPs determined to oppose her Withdrawal Agreement on the erroneous basis that it concedes too much to Brussels.

On the other side there is the smaller counter group of pro-European Remainers, such as Dominic Grieve, Jo Johnson and Anna Soubry who will likely oppose the deal because it takes the U.K. out of the Customs Union and the Single Market.

This leaves the future of the deal in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party.

But Corbyn says he opposes the Withdrawal Agreement and that he could quickly negotiate a better deal with the EU, though that would presumably require an election.

Unless there a sizeable group of labour MPs are prepared to defy the whip, cross the floor to back May and risk the possibility of deselection at the hands of Corbyn’s “momentum” faction – then the Withdrawal Agreement is as good as dead.

This is dangerous situation as the likely default position in that event is a no-deal Brexit.

In this scenario – and right now it is the likeliest one – a second referendum as the only viable route out of the impasse. As Tony Blair argues:

“We need unity after the Brexit division. It can only come through clarity. And the only route to clarity is through the people. It may seem improbable; but everything else is now impossible.”

Though the clock is ticking fast and the window for holding a second referendum is closing, it is easier to construct a Commons majority for a second vote, especially among Labour MPs, than for May’s deal.

But there is another, more selfish reason, why we in Ireland should be using our influence to urge a second referendum and a complete rejection of Brexit.

Stopping Brexit entirely and keeping the U.K. in the EU institutions, in the Commission, the Parliament and, most importantly, the Council is in our interest as it is the only way we can keep our closest political ally in the EU by our side.

Ireland and the U.K. have each been the others most important ally since we joined the EEC in 1973. Though not always ad idem, we have shared a common outlook and approach to most economic, tax and trade issues and our interests have aligned better with those of the U.K. than any single other big player.

We need the U.K. at the Council table over the years ahead as issues such as the consolidated tax base and common defence and security are discussed.

While Varadkar and Coveney may feel that they have personal and party political capital invested in seeing the Withdrawal Agreement succeed, our long-term national interests will be far better served by stopping Brexit and a second Brexit referendum is the now the only way to do that.

Derek Mooney is a communications and public affairs consultant. He previously served as a Ministerial Adviser to the Fianna Fáil-led government 2004 – 2010. His column appears here every Tuesday Follow Derek on Twitter: @dsmooney

Rollingnews

Last night.

Ceres Park, Copenhagen Aarhus., Denmark.

Michael Obafemi (above with mother Bola and brother Affy) made his senior international football debut last night when he was brought on as a substitute during the Republic of Ireland’s goalless draw with Denmark.

Mr Obafami, who was born in Dublin and plays for Southampton in the Premier League, was also eligible to represent England or Nigeria but committed to play for the Republic of Ireland earlier this month.

In fairness.

Michael Obafemi: ‘I want to get as many Ireland caps as possible’ (Irish Times)

Fine Gael Minister for Education Joe McHugh with the Irish Ambassador to Japan Anne Barrington and Japanese Ambassador to Ireland Mari Miyoshi in 2016

The decision of the new Minister for Education Joe McHugh to review the decision to make history an optional subject at Junior Certificate is very welcome.

History should be restored as a core curriculum subject without delay, as this academic discipline has essential values relevant to modern Ireland and to promoting an understanding of the importance of active citizenship, social inclusion and diversity in our society.

In post-Belfast Agreement Ireland, a progressive approach to the teaching of history and an inclusive spirit towards historical commemoration should be viewed as key tools in underpinning peace, tackling deep-seated social problems and building a new shared understanding.

There is a significant body of international academic research that shows that the role of history education, in developing a sound knowledge of the history of one’s own country and of the wider world, can contribute to progressive democratic citizenship.

In a world where we are often bombarded with a wide range of electronic information of varying degrees of intellectual rigour and quality, and in a world where there are real concerns about the phenomenon of “fake news”, it is important that our young people have the ability to evaluate source material and to develop analytical skills, which the study of history teaches us.

The last census showed that persons born abroad accounted for 17.3 per cent of the population in the Republic of Ireland.

In the space of roughly a generation, our country is in the process of making the transition from a relatively homogeneous state to a pluralist nation.

The progressive teaching of history can foster a sense of inclusion, a respect for diversity and also strengthen awareness of civic responsibilities in the emerging generation, now in our schools and colleges, who will help shape the future of this island.

Division, rancour and conflict are themes that emerge from Ireland’s long history that we do not want to repeat or relive in a new era.

Mr McHugh is correct in noting that it is through “learning the lessons of our past that we can plan for the future”.

As Ireland now prepares for our second century of independence, the inclusive study of history is a means to build stronger communities and a vibrant, peaceful nation.

Dr Brian Murphy,
Access Foundation Programme,
Dublin Institute of Technology,
Dublin 1.

The return of history as a core subject? (Irish Times letters page)

Um.

Chemical Byrne writes:

Thought you might find this interesting, a converted hallway off a busy laneway for €1500 per month. Shared jacks between two bedrooms, classy! No clothes washing facilities or central heating, near a pub though….

2 Eagle House, Killiney Hill Road, Killiney, South Co. Dublin (Daft)

For the man who has everything.

A ‘ronnie’ tatoo.

James Coffey writes:

I have organised a charity tattoo day this Saturday in conjunction with Craft Ink Tattoo Studio on Thomas Street in aid of the Movember Foundation.

We’ll be running a Movember Flash Tattoo Day with limited edition ‘tash tatts on offer all day for €50.

The Movember Foundation tackles prostate cancer, testicular cancer, mental health and suicide prevention among men.

I’d guess that, unfortunately, all of us have been affected by the above in some way, whether it’s a friend, dad, brother or son.

Tattoos often allow men to express themselves in a way that talking can’t always do, and we’re hoping this will give them the opportunity to wear their Mo with pride.

Movember Charity Tattoo Day (Facebook events)

From top: Construction work last month on the Elsmore housing estate in Naas, County Kildare; Michael Taft

Since the crash bottomed out in 2012, employment growth has been substantial – 377,000 according to the CSO. This is a strong performance by any standard.

But there is some confusion as to where the growth is coming from and what it says about the economy.

Let’s run through some numbers focusing on employees or wage-employment (excluding self-employed) and the market economy, which excludes the mostly public sectors such as public administration, health and education.

In the period of 2012 to 2018 (2nd quarter), the number of employees in the market economy grew by 268,000, or 28 percent (in the non-market sectors employment growth was lower reflecting the Government’s hiring freeze – 72,000 or 14 percent).

Construction employment nearly doubled in the last five years; not surprising given the collapse of building work during the crash.

The next biggest increase came from Administrative and Support Services (a category that includes high-paid aircraft leasing employees and low-paid cleaners and security guards).

Coming third was the hospitality sector. Notably, while tech companies are usually associated with high employment growth, the increase in the Information and Communication sector was below the market economy average (though being high-income their consumer spending will help create jobs in other areas).

From what sectors did these 268,000 jobs come from?

Nearly one-in-four jobs came from the hospitality sector – a low value-added, low-wage sector. Employment increased by over 60,000. The next largest sector was construction, bouncing back from the crash. This sector grew by 53,000.

Combined, hospitality and construction made up over 42 percent of all employee growth in the market economy. Growth rates appear to be concentrated in these two sectors.

Let’s look further under the hood.

Administrative and Support services had the second highest growth rate. Eurostat tells us that 75 percent of this growth came from ‘employment agencies’ – primarily, agency workers.

While we can’t necessarily apply this calculation to the CSO data (different methodologies may be at work), it is indicative and is confirmed by Eurostat’s finding that the number of temporary agency workers has more than doubled between 2012 and 2017.

Another potentially worrying trend is the rise of temporary employment or fixed-term contracts in the latter part of the last five years. Temporary employment is considered at high risk of precariousness.

The trends over the last five years show that the total number of employees increased by 23 percent while temporary employment increased by 13 percent. However, the data shows a sharp rise in temporary employment in the last 15 months – 66 percent of the increase in wage-employment was temporary contracts.

We should be cautious about this, as the data has a couple of breaks in the time series which means that there was a change in methodology (e.g. different questions which could alter survey responses on precariousness). Nonetheless, it is consistent with the increases we saw above with temporary agency workers.

While the above refers to the market economy, there is one interesting insight from the non-market sector. Health wage-employment increased by 19,000 between 2012 and 2018. However, only 30 percent of that growth came from the public sector.

Public sector wage employment makes up only 56 percent of total health wage employment – and it is falling. Is this particular stat trying to tell us a story about the slow privatisation of our health sector?

The Irish Times’ Cantillon observed:

‘The rapid return to near full employment here is undeniably a good thing, but it highlights a remarkable volatility at the heart of the Irish economy that allows us go from boom to bust to boom again in barely 10 years. Stability is not what we do here.’

Too true; one has only to look at the boom-bust-emerging-boom in construction employment. This chart includes the self-employed.

At the very end of the boom in 2007 nearly one-in-six people employed in the market economy were in the construction sector, and this doesn’t count other property-related jobs.

While we are still a way from that peak, we should expect construction employment to climb as residential and commercial building increases. Are we on another incline on the roller-coaster that is our construction sector?

The headline story for employment growth is good. However, when we look under the hood we find some worrying trends – growth in low-wage and precarious job creation along with the strong growth in the volatile construction sector.

It’s a good story but not without downsides.

Michael Taft is a researcher for SIPTU and author of the political economy blog, Notes on the Front.

Rollingnews

University College Dublin (UCD) exam hall at the RDS, May 2017

If you’d like to get a degree
Or perhaps even a PhD
It may seem like a feat
But it’s easy, just cheat
And hope that your tutors don’t see

John Moynes

Pic: Shnobs

Broadsheet.ie