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The Central Statistics Office writes:

In the year to July, residential property prices at national level increased by 12.3%. This compares with an increase of 11.5% in the year to June and an increase of 7.1% in the twelve months to July 2016.

In Dublin, residential property prices increased by 12.7% in the year to July. Dublin house prices increased 12.6%. Apartments in Dublin increased 12.0% in the same period. The highest house price growth was in Dublin City, at 13.6%. In contrast, the lowest growth was in Fingal, with house prices rising 7.4%.

Residential property prices in the Rest of Ireland (i.e. excluding Dublin) were 11.7% higher in the year to July. House prices in the Rest of Ireland increased 11.8% over the period. The West region showed the greatest price growth, with house prices increasing 15.8%.  The Mid-West region showed the least price growth, with house prices increasing 8.2%. Apartment prices in the Rest of Ireland increased 13.7% in the same period.

Residential Property Price Index July 2017 (CSO)

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Minister for Housing Eoghan Murphy at the Housing Summit in the Custom House, Dublin last week

NAMA Wine Lake writes:

It’s one thing for Government to a miss a second important housing target, it’s another for entire nation not to realise it’s being missed.

In July 2016, the government’s target for building social housing in the 12 months of 2017 was X.

Last week, the Government said that its current plans for building social housing in the 12 months of 2017 was Y.

What is X and what is Y?

Anyone?

Hint: Y is “four times the number of units built in 2015” – that’s what the Government said last week and that’s what the old media faithfully reported.

Confused? You really should be.

Neither X nor Y has been clearly communicated by either the Government or old media.

This piece will clarify both and lambast the old media for its failing in this regard.

[TLDR? X is 3,000 units Y is 1,860. The Government will fail to meet its target for 2017 by 1,100-odd units, or 38%]

The story of X

In July 2016, the Government published its Rebuilding Ireland report. The 117-page report was largely devoid of meaningful targets.

For example, it committed to “47,000 social housing units delivered by 2021, supported by investment of €5.35 billion”. This is typical of this government’s announcements which take the format – “we’ll spend x squintillions to build y bazillions of homes by the time hell freezes over”.

Short-term targets, by which the Government could be held to account, were nowhere to be found.

You remember the brouhaha during this summer when the Government missed its target of getting the homeless out of emergency accommodation by July 1? That wasn’t a target in Rebuilding Ireland.

When the report was being launched, the then Minister for Housing Simon Coveney said the use of hotels would be “practically eliminated by the middle of next year”. That was the only short-term target and it wasn’t even in the report!

And for the few people who paid attention, they interpreted that commitment as rehousing the homeless, but as the homeless numbers continued to increase month-by-month, a new term entered our lexicon “family hub”, which is the euphemism this government is applying to the already well-established term “poorhouse” (singletons will be accommodated in these new poorhouses, and whilst a singleton might be a one-person “household”, they can hardly be described as a “family”, and what sort of media would embrace and repeat the term, the progressive-sounding “hub”?).

Regardless, we all now know the Government has failed to meet the target of rehousing the homeless.

And some, perhaps most, think the target has been perverted anyway and poorhouses were never originally anticipated as solutions to homelessness.

So, what was the target for building social housing in 2017? The Rebuilding Ireland report didn’t actually provide a number. It did however provide a graph!


The blue represents actual new construction. So, what do you think the target was for 2017?

I would have said 2,500, but last week, the new Housing Minister Eoghan Murphy said the original target for 2018 was 3,000 units, and, as you can see from the graph above, the amount of blue in 2017 looks identical to the amount of blue in 2018, the target for 2017 must therefore be 3,000 units.

Seriously, in Ireland, this is how we divine Government targets for the provision of critical public services.

In fairness to the housing minister, last week, he predicted they would build 3,800 units in 2018 compared to the original target of 3,000 (no diff with clearly articulating that, eh?!) but given Paddy Power is offering odds of 1/3 for an election next year, the present housing minister is unlikely to be around to be held accountable for anything that happens next year.

If you thought divining the target was an ordeal, brace yourself for divining the present plan!

The story of Y

On Friday last, the current housing minister (having been in the job for three months and a day, he should be up to speed by now) said this government will this year build four times the amount of social housing built in 2015.

“Four times”? “Wow”, eh? “2015”, though? That’s strange.

Why didn’t he provide a clear figure though? Why didn’t he refer to social housing built in 2016, rather than 2015? I don’t know, but let’s look at the actual figures and an explanation might suggest itself.

The Department of Housing says a total of 465 social housing units were built in 2015, comprising 64 units built by local authorities and 401 by private sector housing associations (the likes of Cluid and Tuath).

So, four times the number built in 2015 would be 1,860 (465 X 4). 2015 just happens to have been the worst year on record for building social housing.

In 2016 (not the reference year used by housing minister last week), 652 units were built by local authorities and housing associations. If the housing minister used the same format for a statement referencing 2016, it would read, “this year we will be building between 2-3 times what we built in 2016”.

Precisely, it’s 185% more than 2016 but that’s not as impressive as saying “four times” what we built previously.

Did the housing minister deliberately refer to the worst year on record as a base for comparison with current year plans? Who knows?

Did the housing minister avoid reference to a specific number in case anyone was keeping track of what the original plan was? Who knows?

What does this all tell us about Government and old media?

With a target of 3,000 units and a current plan of 1,860 units, representing a fairly pathetic 38% failing, you might have thought the housing minister would be battening down the hatches with all the criticism he’d be receiving? Not at all.

He’s basking in the reflected late summer sunlight of building “four times” the number of units built in the worst year for social housing-build. Good job old media!

Governments don’t like short-term targets, or even 12-month targets. There was practically no short-term target in Rebuilding Ireland.

Between July – December 2016, old media appeared ignorant of the target of “practically eliminating” homeless in emergency accommodation by mid-2017.

Governments feel safe in announcing long-term targets, but will resist being nailed down on short-term targets. Governments will spin the bejaysus out of actual performance.

Old media allows Governments to announce meaningless plans. Where were the demands last July 2016 when Rebuilding Ireland was published for short-term targets by which performance and progress could be measured?

Is old media incapable of asking questions of “how much”, “when” and demanding meaningful responses.

Old media doesn’t challenge neologisms like “family hubs”. Old media reports cryptic announcements without challenge, like “four times 2015”.

And, in the middle of a housing supply crisis, old media fails to harry the housing minister and his department for, er, monthly housing supply statistics.

NAMA Wine Lake

Previously: When Anthony Met The Housing Minister

‘The Numbers That Are Really Vacant Are Actually Much Smaller’

Update:

House completions – 1970 to 2015

There you go now.

Anyone?

Fintan O’Toole: Why I will not appear on Newstalk again (Irish Times)

From left: Liam and Roy Fox with kids and brother-in-law Thomas Morgan

Uncanny.

Croagh Patrick, County Mayo

Via The Irish Sun:

They posed for a quick group shot outside St Patrick’s Chapel at the summit, before making their descent.

But when they inspected the snaps later, they saw what appeared to be the face of Our Lord in the clouds.

And they say a Bible passage actually prophesied the apparition.

Incredibly, the picture was taken at exactly 15.49 — which in the book of Corinthians refers to “the image of the heavenly man”.

The Second Cumulus: Irish family stunned as JESUS photobombs holiday snap taken on Mayo mountain Croagh Patrick (Barry Moran, The Irish Sun)

Acting Garda Commissioner Dónal Ó Cualáin and former Garda Commissioner Noirin O’Sullivan 

Further to Noirin O’Sullivan stepping down from her position as Garda Commissioner.

The new acting Garda Commissioner, until a replacement is found, is Deputy Commissioner Dónal Ó Cualáin.

Readers may wish to note that Mr O’Cualáin has previously been named in the Dáil, in relation to claims of a cover-up regarding Garda collusion with heroin dealers.

Garda Keith Harrison first raised his suspicion that a garda was involved in the distribution of drugs in Athlone in November 2008 but he claims, in a complaint to GSOC and in his statement to the Disclosures Tribunal, that nothing happened on foot of making his suspicions known.

Garda Harrison later arrested this same garda for drink-driving in June 2009.

Garda Nicky Keogh then made a formal complaint to the then Confidential Recipient Judge Pat McMahon about the same garda and the sale of heroin in Athlone in May 2014.

His complaint was investigated by then Assistant Commissioner Donal Ó Cualáin.

In October 2015, Garda Keogh made a complaint to GSOC regarding the manner in which the then Assistant Commissioner Dónal Ó Cualáin was carrying out his investigation into the alleged involvement of a garda into heroin dealing with Garda Keogh alleging that there appeared to be a cover-up.

Later that month, Mr Ó Cualáin was promoted to Deputy Commissioner.

A GSOC report into their investigation of Garda Keogh’s complaint has yet to be released.

On May 25 in 2016, following the publication of the report of the O’Higgins Commission of Investigation, which investigated complaints of Garda misconduct in Cavan/Monaghan by Sgt Maurice McCabe, TDs gave statements in respect of the report.

During his speech in the Dail, Mick Wallace, Independents 4 Change TD, said:

“In the past two years myself and Deputy Clare Daly have raised issues 18 times about how the Department and the Commissioner have dealt with whistleblowers.

Garda Nicky Keogh wrote to the Minister [Frances Fitzgerald] last week. He made allegations on May 8, 2014 to the confidential recipient, Judge Pat McMahon. After that, he said he was subject to five internal investigations and relentless harassment. He said he has been driven out and has been out sick since December 26. He also says he has got no protection. The Minister will know this from the letter she received.

His letter went on to say that further to his letter dated July 25, 2015, he had made a protected disclosure to GSOC in respect of a flawed Garda criminal investigation into a conspiracy to supply heroin involving a member of An Garda Síochána in contravention of section 21 of the Misuse of Drugs Act 1977.

He said he believed this was no more than a deliberate and unmitigated cover–up by the Deputy Commissioner, Donal Ó Cualáin. He said he believed that the investigation was similar to the internal Garda investigations into Garda misconduct in Donegal in the 1990s.

He went on to say that the protection offered to him as a whistleblower under the terms of the protected disclosures legislation was completely disregarded and ignored by the Garda Commissioner, Nóirín O’Sullivan.”

Two years prior to Mr Wallace’s statement to the Dáil, then Independent TD Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan spoke of Garda Nicky Keogh’s allegations in the Dáil, on May 8, 2014, saying:

“His allegations are serious, including a cover up of an original file which was stolen, with the original incident being removed from the PULSE system; the creation of new statements and appearance of new original information; non-compliance by the Garda with the court order for disclosure and at least one of the accused being threatened by a garda to plead guilty on the day of the court case.”

“[Garda Nick Keogh]’s greatest concern with the drugs operation in November 2009 is that there was a systematic and orchestrated effort by high-ranking Garda officers to induce and coerce citizens, in this case citizens with no previous criminal conviction, to buy drugs from drug dealers, putting them in personal danger, and sell the drugs in turn to undercover gardaí without making any profit, thus boosting crime detection figures concerning arrests, charges and convictions.

The result of this operation was that these mostly young citizens of the State, who had no previous drug convictions, now have serious drug convictions.”

“Finally, a further aspect of grave concern regarding the planning of this operation was that the list of persons nominated to be targeted had a notable omission in that a significant and well recognised drug dealer in the area who has long been associated with a senior member of the drugs unit was excluded.”

On October 2, 2016, John Mooney, in The Sunday Times, reported that an internal investigation into Garda Nicky Keogh’s complaints of Garda collusion in heroin dealing in the Midlands had “found evidence to substantiate claims” made by Mr Keogh but that the DPP advised there was “insufficient evidence to prosecute those implicated”.

Broadsheet understands no report on this internal investigation has been published to date.

Readers will recall how the report into the O’Higgins Commission of Investigation didn’t mention certain events which took place during the private commission.

After the report was published, Michael Clifford, of the Irish Examiner, and Katie Hannon, of RTE’s Prime Time, reported that Colm Smyth, the senior counsel for the Garda Commissioner Noirin O’Sullivan, set out in the early stages of the commission that evidence would be produced to show that Sgt McCabe had told two other gardaí that he was making his complaints out of malice.

But a few days after this submission, Sgt McCabe told Judge Kevin O’Higgins he had a tape recording of the meeting in question.

The matter was subsequently dropped when the recording proved the allegation to be wrong.

In addition, readers may also wish to note that Broadsheet reported last week that, in regards to the wrongful allegation of malice, An Garda Siochana also claimed the reason Sgt McCabe was supposedly acting out of malice was because he wanted the DPP’s directions against him, in respect of Ms D’s 2006 allegation of “humping” – a matter which is part of the current Disclosures Tribunal – overturned.

It’s understood An Garda Siochana made this allegation on the belief that Sgt McCabe didn’t know the DPP’s directions.

However, it was also dropped when Sgt McCabe informed Judge O’Higgins that he had full knowledge of the DPP’s directions and was very satisfied with them.

Previously: A Breathtaking Timeline

Absence Of Malice

How Did He Get Here

Businesspost.ie/Irish Mirror/Rollingnews